420
FXUS62 KRAH 172025
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL EDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT TONIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH IN VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...
* PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH FAVORED LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS, AND INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN.
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
STRETCHING FROM FAR SOUTHWEST NC TO JUST NORTH OF CHARLOTTE, THROUGH
THE TRIAD AND JUST WEST OF THE TRIANGLE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
CONFINED POCKETS OF MOSTLY SPRINKLES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS MOISTURE
AXIS AS A SHEAR AXIS WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUMS SAGS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS AXIS HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE TRIAD AND THIS WILL PERIODICALLY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING, BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT, A SURFACE COLD FRONT ANALYZED AT 18Z REMAINS PINNED UP
AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE 1026MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
OHIO VALLEY TRACKS GENERALLY EASTWARD TONIGHT, THIS WILL ALLOW THE
FRONT TO SPILL ACROSS THE VA MOUNTAINS AND DIP INTO THE NORTHERN NC
PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUES MORNING. SOUTH OF THIS
BACKDOOR FRONT, A LINGERING RESIDUAL CAD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE,
ALTHOUGH MODERATED BY CONSIDERABLE SOLAR HEATING TODAY. THIS
CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW
OVERCAST AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG. THE REMNANT CAD HIGH
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NC INTO SC AND GA THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE THE FAVORED
AREA FOR POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG. LIGHTS SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR, AS MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 290K STRENGTHENS ATOP OF THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SPILLING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT WITH LOWS SETTLING IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
THE KENTUCKY LOW WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AFFECTING THE REGION, MOVING UP TO NEW JERSEY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE
DAYTIME, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE WHOLE
FORECAST AREA, BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE, THE GREATEST FORCING WILL
BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA, AND WHILE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL HAS LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING, OVERALL
RAINFALLS AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT - LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
SLIGHTLY EXPANDED THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PRIMARILY ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE - LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF US-1 MAY HAVE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER. WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY'S
HIGHS, CONSIDERING THERE WILL STILL NOT HAVE BEEN ANY APPRECIABLE
CHANGE IN AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST,
YET ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY FORECAST WILL BE ADDED SOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A
FEW SPRINKLES, HOWEVER IT IS UNLIKELY AS THERE IS A LACK OF
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. SATURDAY, THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD REACH
THE REGION, DROPPING TEMPERATURES FURTHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S, MAYBE REACHING 50 IN THE SOUTH, WHILE
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PASS OVER THE REGION. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE, THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SPOTTY PRECIPITATION,
BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE COLD AIR GETS REINFORCED
BY 1040 MB COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH, DECREASING
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ON SUNDAY AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOW 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT TO
BE THE COLDEST IN THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD MONDAY NIGHT, WARMING LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TO THE LOW TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE THE SLIGHT WARMING TREND ON TUESDAY, WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...
WAVES OF MID/LEVEL DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL
BE MOSTLY DRY WITH NO AVIATION RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z.
THE RESIDUAL MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT.
IFR-LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REDEVELOP OVER THE TRIAD
TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING. SEPARATELY, CALM WINDS
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG, POTENTIALLY DENSE, ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN INTO EARLY
WED MORNING. THE TRIAD TERMINALS MAY REMAIN AT-OR-BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WHILE ELSEWHERE SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY FAY AND RWI WITH A LESSER CHANCE AT
RDU) WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT A NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SWIGGETT
NEAR TERM...SWIGGETT
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...HELOCK
AVIATION...SWIGGETT
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