053
FXUS62 KRAH 200116
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
815 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 815 PM THURSDAY...
WEAK SOUTHERLY OVERRUNNING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP A WEDGE OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD IS
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH CLOUD BASES RUNNING BETWEEN 2-
5KFT ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVERSPREADING THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT, VIA INCREASING UPPER JET
DIVERGENCE AND 80-140M H5 HEIGHT FALLS DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER PV ANOMALY INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL AIDE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PATCHY RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. BEST CHANCES SEEM TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF US-1.
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM MID 30S ALONG THE VA BORDER TO AROUND
40 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY
BEFORE CLEARING THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, A
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SKIRT UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
THE DAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS REGION, EARLY FRIDAY. TO THE WEST,
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO TREK
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A A TRAILING
COLD FRONT. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST, AND THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. ALL PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE COLD AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE PRECIP. A FEW
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE REGION AS WELL.
FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE RANGING FROM UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S. LOWS WILL GENERAL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH A
FEW COOLER SPOTS IN THE UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...
THIS WEEKEND, A COOL 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH
BRINGING COLD, DRY AIR TO THE REGION. SATURDAY WILL HAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE
SURFACE HIGH IS OVERHEAD, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD AS CLEAR SKIES
WILL HELP PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER LEVEL
THICKNESSES ARE AROUND 1265-1275 DAM, ALLOWING LOWS TO GET DOWN IN
THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WE RETURN
TO QUASI-ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUS, MONDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS INCREASING
FROM UPPER 40S AND MID 50S ON TUESDAY TO 50S AND LOW 60S BY
THURSDAY. LOWS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE FROM AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ON
TUESDAY NIGHT TO LOW TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES CHRISTMAS DAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE REGION. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE THIS
DISTURBANCE, BUT THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER
IMPACTING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THEREFORE SLIGHT
CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE POPS STARTING CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WERE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO 50S SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE ALL
LIQUID.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 650 PM THURSDAY...
THE LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY MOIST TONIGHT,
WITH MVFR /VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 04Z AND 07Z.
PATCHY DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, BUT CHANCES
ARE GENERALLY 30 PERCENT OR LESS. CIGS SHOULD BECOME
MVFR BY 15Z-18Z, THEN VFR LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
LOOKING BEYOND 00Z SAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...HELOCK
AVIATION...BADGETT/LUCHETTI
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