743
FXUS62 KRAH 210610
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO CANADA THIS MORNING WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY
WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 810 PM FRIDAY...
THE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE ALL DISSIPATED EXCEPT ACROSS THE LAURINBURG
AND LUMBERTON AREAS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHED INTO THE REGION. THE
FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE COUNTIES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, WITH STRONG
DRY AND COLD ADVECTION ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY NW WINDS AT
10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH QUICKLY FALLING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING
SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS BY DAYBREAK WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO MID 30S SE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 156 PM FRIDAY...
POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL PROMOTE CHILLY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON NWLY GUSTS OF UP
TO 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, SUBSIDING SOME AFTER DARK.
HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME STIRRING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LOOKS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. SO WHILE THE COLD AIR MASS WILL
PROMOTE CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S, THE REALLY COLD
MORNING (WITH PRISTINE RADIATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL) WILL HOLD OFF
TILL SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD. A
STRONG 1035+ MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDS DOWN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH WINDS CHILLS IN THE
30S ACROSS THE REGION. AS WINDS CALM LATE SUNDAY EVENING, CLEAR
SKIES WILL HELP AID EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MONDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 20S
MONDAY NIGHT.
BY TUESDAY MORNING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BEHIND OVER THE OH VALLEY
WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY, BUT DRY. MODELS HAVE
SHOWN THAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR RAIN, WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN LATE AFTERNOON EARLY
EVENING. SOME OTHER ENSEMBLES HAVE SHOWN A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK IN FROM THE NORTH RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST FOR WED THROUGH
LATE WEEK. OTHERS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW, KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY, CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY, THEN CAPS POPS AT 30
PERCENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE, AND
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BECOME NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S EACH DAY (MAYBE EVEN 60S IN THE FAR SE) AND
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 110 AM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL PUSH EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, LEAVING FAIR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS COLDER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN. CLOUDS WILL
CONSIST OF A FEW HIGH-BASED STRATOCU AND PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AT MOST THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE NNW OR
N, MOSTLY UNDER 10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT, AND AROUND 10-
15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS TODAY FROM ABOUT 14Z TO 22Z.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SAT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH
WED UNDER COLD HIGH PRESSURE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SUB-VFR CIGS MAY OCCUR LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED, MAINLY IN THE SE,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. -GIH
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...LUCHETTI
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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