572
FXUS62 KRAH 210711
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
210 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO CANADA THIS MORNING WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY
WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 210 AM SATURDAY...
EXPECT FAIR AND FRIGID CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEKEND. THE AXIS OF
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER E NOAM WILL SHIFT TO OUR E THIS
MORNING, AND THE STOUT CYCLONIC NW STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW THE MUCH
COLDER AIR MASS TO FINALLY SPILL PAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO
CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW AND N. THE COLUMN WILL BE GENERALLY QUITE DRY
WITH HIGH MID STABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS, FAVORING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE, ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE A FEW MID CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY AS A
WEAK/SHEARED VORTICITY LOBE DIVES SE INTO THE MEAN TROUGH BASE AND
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 20 M BELOW NORMAL THIS MORNING, SO DESPITE GOOD INSOLATION
AND DECENT MIXING, HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50
AREAWIDE. AFTER A MINOR UPTICK DURING THE DAY, THICKNESSES WILL
PLUMMET TONIGHT TO THEIR EXPECTED LOWEST POINT DURING THIS STRETCH,
AROUND 1265-1275 M BY SUN MORNING. DESPITE A LINGERING LIGHT BREEZE
FROM THE N OVERNIGHT, THE CLEAR SKIES WILL FOSTER DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING, SUPPORTING LOWS FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. -GIH
SHORT TERM / /
AS OF 156 PM FRIDAY...
TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD. A
STRONG 1035+ MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDS DOWN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH WINDS CHILLS IN THE
30S ACROSS THE REGION. AS WINDS CALM LATE SUNDAY EVENING, CLEAR
SKIES WILL HELP AID EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MONDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 20S
MONDAY NIGHT.
BY TUESDAY MORNING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BEHIND OVER THE OH VALLEY
WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY, BUT DRY. MODELS HAVE
SHOWN THAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR RAIN, WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN LATE AFTERNOON EARLY
EVENING. SOME OTHER ENSEMBLES HAVE SHOWN A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK IN FROM THE NORTH RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST FOR WED THROUGH
LATE WEEK. OTHERS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW, KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY, CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY, THEN CAPS POPS AT 30
PERCENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE, AND
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BECOME NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S EACH DAY (MAYBE EVEN 60S IN THE FAR SE) AND
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 110 AM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL PUSH EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, LEAVING FAIR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS COLDER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN. CLOUDS WILL
CONSIST OF A FEW HIGH-BASED STRATOCU AND PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AT MOST THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE NNW OR
N, MOSTLY UNDER 10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT, AND AROUND 10-
15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS TODAY FROM ABOUT 14Z TO 22Z.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SAT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH
WED UNDER COLD HIGH PRESSURE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SUB-VFR CIGS MAY OCCUR LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED, MAINLY IN THE SE,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. -GIH
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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