948
FXUS62 KRAH 212314
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
714 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO CANADA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY
WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 259 PM SATURDAY...
RESIDUAL NWLY GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE STILL SHOWING AT A FEW SITES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME STIRRING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIKELY TONIGHT. AS SUCH, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S TONIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANY STRATOCU TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING, WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 259 PM SATURDAY...
A CHILLY SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
PROMOTING CHILLY NNELY SFC FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S. ANY STRATOCU SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN OFFSHORE. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS NEAR
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND WINDS GO CALM, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SHOULD YIELD COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 259 PM SATURDAY...
AS OF MONDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE SITTING OVER
NEW YORK WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FORCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO
DEVELOP OFF THE FLORIDA COAST MONDAY EVENING. THE LOW SHOULD REACH
ITS CLOSEST POINT TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFF
THE COAST OF WILMINGTON AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AFTER THAT.
THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND, AND AT THIS POINT, HAVE KEPT A DRY
FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL THAT
PRECIPITATION COULD START OFF VERY BRIEFLY AS FREEZING RAIN, AS
SOUNDINGS SHOW A THICK LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ABOVE THE
SURFACE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME; THE PRECIPITATION IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED TO
FALL AS RAIN. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT, HAVE
REMOVED POPS FROM THAT PART OF THE FORECAST. MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE
UPPER 40S. SIMILARLY, MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SUNDAY NIGHT, RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S ON TUESDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS AND MOVE
EAST. HOWEVER, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN ALL
MODELS IN HOW QUICKLY EAST PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
NORTH CAROLINA, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL DRY AIR. PRIMARILY RELYING ON ENSEMBLES, HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, CONSIDERING THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IT'S NOT UNTIL FRIDAY THAT THE
GEFS AND EPS BOTH START TO SHOW A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF RAINFALL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST, AND HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 714 PM SATURDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW LINGERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DRIFT EWD OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE 3-6 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THU. HOWEVER,
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND SUB-VFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE
LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST (KFAY AND KRWI).
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...LUCHETTI
SHORT TERM...LUCHETTI
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...KC
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