945
FXUS62 KRAH 151151
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
650 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTH INTO THE GULF STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...
..COLDER TODAY WITH HIGHS 7-10 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW STARTING TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA
AND SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND 10Z.
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING FRONT, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE POST-FRONTAL CAA AND ASSOCIATED GUSTINESS WILL PEAK
THIS MORNING AND WILL ABATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT QUICKLY RELAXES. AFTERNOON LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE
PROGGED TO BE 20-30 METERS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN AFTERNOON HIGHS 7-10 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY; HIGHS RANGING
FROM MID 30S NORTH, TO AROUND 40 SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY/CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT COULD SEE AN OCCASIONAL FLARE-UP
OF JET CIRRUS, AS BOTH SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE AREA. VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...
..SLIGHT MODERATION BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL
SURFACE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING
SWLY AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS.
MEANWHILE, AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO RENEWED H5 HEIGHT FALLS
(30-60 METERS) AND A FLEETING PERIOD OF BROKEN MID-LEVEL CEILINGS
DURING THE DAY, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW A MODEST WARM UP, WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES GENERALLY IN THE SAME BALL PARK AS WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY(TUESDAY). HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S
SOUTH, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OF 20 TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NOT AS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A STRONG LLJ NOTED JUST ABOVE THE
NEAR SFC INVERSION LAYER. LOWS 25-30.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CHARLOTTE
AND LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTH OF MINNESOTA WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO TEXAS. THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED OFFSHORE AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CANADA AND THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING. CONTINUING THE
TREND OF THE PREVIOUS TWO FORECASTS, CONTINUED TO REDUCE THE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT, JUST LEAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
PARTS OF THE TRIAD AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH GOOD SUPPORT FROM
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS, HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO
CATEGORICAL IN ALL LOCATIONS SATURDAY. DESPITE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
PUSHING ALL PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT, WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ENSEMBLES ALLOWING PRECIPITATION
TO LINGER. THE ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT, SOMETHING
THE GFS WAS NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT, AND THIS FEATURE IS PRIMARILY
WHAT THE ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON TO KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY, IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD
(TUESDAY AFTERNOON).
WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY INCLUDES LIQUID PRECIPITATION,
THERE ARE TWO LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR (VERY) MINIMAL SNOWFALL. THE
FIRST WILL BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP,
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN
THE TRIAD. CONSIDERING HOW LOW THE QPF IS AND THAT ANY SNOW WOULD
LIKELY MIX WITH RAIN, NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE EXPECTED BEFORE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
THE SECOND WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.
HOWEVER, THIS IS LIKELY A SCENARIO OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE
PRECIPITATION, AND ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WOULD BE MINIMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ON FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S TO THE MID 50S. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MARKEDLY
COLDER AFTER LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S, HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE
IN THE 30S, THEN ALL LOCATIONS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT
(WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS) AND
NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BRIEF GUSTINESS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THIS MORNING WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE BY LATE MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT BY THE AFTERNOON AND CALM TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE
A FEW FLEETING CIRRUS. OTHERWISE, SKIES SHOULD BE LARGELY
CLEAR.
OUTLOOK: DRY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A 35-40 KT
WESTERLY LLJ TRAVERSING THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT MAY RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF LLWS.
A WAVY FRONTAL ZONE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS TO THE AREA
SATURDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREN/BLAES
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...CBL
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