463
FXUS62 KRAH 160801
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NC TONIGHT. A DRY FRONTAL
ZONE WILL THEN WAVER OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...
..MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AND DEEP SOUTH, WHICH WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS
TO BECOME SWLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT FREQUENT SWLY GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH BEGINNING FROM LATE MORNING/MIDDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO LEAD TO A
FLEETING PERIOD OF 5-10KFT BROKEN CEILINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES REBOUND ~30 METERS FROM
YESTERDAY, WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE IN ~10 DEGREES OF WARMING. HIGHS
RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE EVENING FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WINDS WILL BACK TO NWLY AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT MOVES EAST AND OFF THE COAST DURING THE
LATE EVENING. NOT AS COLD. LOWS 25-30.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...
TRANSITORY SFC HIGH AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THEN QUICKLY OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT,
AHEAD OF A DEAMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
ADVANCES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN
LITTLE TO THERMAL ADVECTION INTO THE AREA, LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
FRIDAY ARE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY/TODAY. HIGHS AGAIN RANGING FROM
MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE STRONGEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA, IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A WEAK SURFACE WAVE/LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH, RAIN CHANCES AND PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE LOOKING
INCREASINGLY MINIMAL. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP AND
SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE FAR NW PIEDMONT TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
CURRENTLY, DON'T EXPECT ANY P-TYPE CONCERNS WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES
AND SFC WET-BULBS INDICATING RAIN AT THE SFC. LOWS RANGING FROM
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
LATEST TO ARRIVE, TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN: ON SATURDAY MORNING, LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR
HUDSON BAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE HURON AND
DOWN INTO LOUISIANA. ALTHOUGH RAIN IS STILL LIKELY AS THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH, MODELS DO NOT SHOW AS CONTINUOUS A SHIELD OF RAIN
ALONG THE FRONT NOR AS MUCH RAIN AS THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HAVE SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH,
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES TO THE NORTH ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER.
IN ADDITION, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT APPEARED LIKELY TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA NOW
SEEMS AS IF IT WILL DEVELOP LATER ON SUNDAY ONCE THE FRONT HAS
ALREADY MOVED A BIT FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL STILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA, BUT ALSO REDUCE THE AREA
WHERE A LINGERING SHOWER WOULD BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, BRINGING
DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN DIVERGE WITH A LOW
THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. EVERY MODEL
CYCLE OF THE ECMWF AND GFS, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE, SEEMS
TO SHOW A DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A VERY STRONG HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE EAST COAST WHICH KEEPS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
DRY, WHILE THE 00Z GEFS BRINGS SOME MINIMAL PRECIPITATION INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA, BUT KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE COASTLINE. MEANWHILE, THE 00Z ECMWF HAS MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND EAST OF RALEIGH, AGAIN WITH THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COASTLINE, AND THE 00Z EPS EXPANDS
PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER INLAND THAN THE 00Z GEFS. BALANCING
THESE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS, HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY RATHER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE POPS
TO CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
CONSIDERING BOTH 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE COMPLETELY DRY
WEDNESDAY, WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
DIMINISHING CHANCES WITH THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
SNOWFALL: THERE ARE TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OTHER THAN
RAIN. AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR, AND
AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END SUNDAY EVENING, THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FROM RALEIGH TO THE EAST. THE SECOND
OPPORTUNITY WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION (DISCUSSED FURTHER
BELOW), ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD
OCCUR AS SNOW.
TEMPERATURES: THEY WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED FORECAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND BE IN THE 30S ON SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TEENS TO
THE MID 20S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE
UPPER 30S. THE COLDEST AIR WILL ARRIVE BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
WHEN LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. ONCE ROXBORO FALLS BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY EVENING, IT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1225 AM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AND DEEP SOUTH, WHICH WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS
TO BECOME SWLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT FREQUENT SWLY GUSTS OF 20-
30KTS BEGINNING MIDDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO LEAD TO A FLEETING PERIOD OF
5-10KFT BROKEN CEILINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE EVENING. A 30-
40KT WLY LLJ AT 2000 FT AGL WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THROUGH AROUND 06Z, BEFORE DIMINISHING.
OUTLOOK: DRY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND ACCOMPANYING RAIN, SUB-VFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS,
AND MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...
STRENGTHENING SWLY SURFACE WINDS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30
MPH WITH MIN RH BETWEEN 25-35 PERCENT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE
DANGER THIS AFTERNOON. FUEL MOISTURE ON THE 1 HOUR AND 10 HOUR TIME
SCALE DO NOT LOOK OVERLY DRY. HOWEVER, WILL COORDINATE WITH THE NCFS
FOR ANY FIRE CONCERNS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...CBL/MWS
FIRE WEATHER...CBL
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