366
FXUS62 KRAH 161930
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE ANTECEDENT ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL BRIEFLY
MODERATE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BRING BITTERLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 35 MPH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO RELAX AFTER
5 PM.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE RELATED SURFACE
HIGH REFLECTION ON ITS BACKSIDE WILL HELP USHER A WIND SHIFT AND
PRESSURE TROUGH (AS OPPOSED TO A COLD FRONT GIVEN THE LACK OF AN
OVERALL AIRMASS CHANGE) INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
STOUT SURFACE INVERSION IN PLACE WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH GUSTINESS
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE, BUT CONTINUED STIRRING SHOULD PREVENT
PROLONGED RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AFTER 09Z, CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST POCKETS OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS TO
FALL INTO THE MID 20S WITH UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 WILL BE MOST
PROBABLE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...
TRANSITORY SFC HIGH AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THEN QUICKLY OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT,
AHEAD OF A DEAMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
ADVANCES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN
LITTLE TO THERMAL ADVECTION INTO THE AREA, LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
FRIDAY ARE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY/TODAY. HIGHS AGAIN RANGING FROM
MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE STRONGEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA, IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A WEAK SURFACE WAVE/LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH, RAIN CHANCES AND PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE LOOKING
INCREASINGLY MINIMAL. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP AND
SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE FAR NW PIEDMONT TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
CURRENTLY, DON'T EXPECT ANY P-TYPE CONCERNS WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES
AND SFC WET-BULBS INDICATING RAIN AT THE SFC. LOWS RANGING FROM
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
LATEST TO ARRIVE, TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN: ON SATURDAY MORNING, LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR
HUDSON BAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE HURON AND
DOWN INTO LOUISIANA. ALTHOUGH RAIN IS STILL LIKELY AS THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH, MODELS DO NOT SHOW AS CONTINUOUS A SHIELD OF RAIN
ALONG THE FRONT NOR AS MUCH RAIN AS THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HAVE SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH,
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES TO THE NORTH ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER.
IN ADDITION, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT APPEARED LIKELY TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA NOW
SEEMS AS IF IT WILL DEVELOP LATER ON SUNDAY ONCE THE FRONT HAS
ALREADY MOVED A BIT FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL STILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA, BUT ALSO REDUCE THE AREA
WHERE A LINGERING SHOWER WOULD BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, BRINGING
DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN DIVERGE WITH A LOW
THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. EVERY MODEL
CYCLE OF THE ECMWF AND GFS, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE, SEEMS
TO SHOW A DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A VERY STRONG HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE EAST COAST WHICH KEEPS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
DRY, WHILE THE 00Z GEFS BRINGS SOME MINIMAL PRECIPITATION INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA, BUT KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE COASTLINE. MEANWHILE, THE 00Z ECMWF HAS MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND EAST OF RALEIGH, AGAIN WITH THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COASTLINE, AND THE 00Z EPS EXPANDS
PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER INLAND THAN THE 00Z GEFS. BALANCING
THESE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS, HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY RATHER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE POPS
TO CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
CONSIDERING BOTH 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE COMPLETELY DRY
WEDNESDAY, WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
DIMINISHING CHANCES WITH THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
SNOWFALL: THERE ARE TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OTHER THAN
RAIN. AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR, AND
AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END SUNDAY EVENING, THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FROM RALEIGH TO THE EAST. THE SECOND
OPPORTUNITY WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION (DISCUSSED FURTHER
BELOW), ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD
OCCUR AS SNOW.
TEMPERATURES: THEY WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED FORECAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND BE IN THE 30S ON SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TEENS TO
THE MID 20S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE
UPPER 30S. THE COLDEST AIR WILL ARRIVE BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
WHEN LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. ONCE ROXBORO FALLS BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY EVENING, IT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1255 PM THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOURS TAF PERIOD. AS THE
MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK SHIFTS EASTWARD, SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS WITH INFREQUENT GUSTS 30-35 KTS
POSSIBLE. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE
EVENING. A 30-40KT WLY LLJ AT 2000 FT AGL WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH AROUND 06Z, BEFORE DIMINISHING.
OUTLOOK: DRY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND ACCOMPANYING RAIN, SUB-VFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS,
AND MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...
STRENGTHENING SWLY SURFACE WINDS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30
MPH (INFREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH) WITH MIN RH BETWEEN 25-35
PERCENT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE BEHAVIOR THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH NCFS, CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINAL ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
UNFAVORABLE OVERLAP OF STRONGEST WINDS, LOWEST RH, AND DRIEST FUELS.
MAKE SURE TO NOT LEAVE ANY FIRES UNATTENDED THIS AFTERNOON AS WIND
GUSTS BEGIN TO INCREASE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY STILL
BE IN THE 30S AND COULD RESULT IN ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...SWIGGETT
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...SWIGGETT/CBL/MWS
FIRE WEATHER...CBL/SWIGGETT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page