638
FXUS62 KRAH 162114
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
415 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE ANTECEDENT ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL BRIEFLY
MODERATE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BRING BITTERLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 35 MPH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO RELAX AFTER
5 PM.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE RELATED SURFACE
HIGH REFLECTION ON ITS BACKSIDE WILL HELP USHER A WIND SHIFT AND
PRESSURE TROUGH (AS OPPOSED TO A COLD FRONT GIVEN THE LACK OF AN
OVERALL AIRMASS CHANGE) INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
STOUT SURFACE INVERSION IN PLACE WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH GUSTINESS
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE, BUT CONTINUED STIRRING SHOULD PREVENT
PROLONGED RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AFTER 09Z, CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST POCKETS OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS TO
FALL INTO THE MID 20S WITH UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 WILL BE MOST
PROBABLE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 PM THURSDAY...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEFORE EXITING THE
COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY, SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT AND WILL BACK FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. OVERNIGHT, CLOUDS WILL START TO THICKEN
AND SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. WITH CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1320-
1340M, LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TONIGHT
AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THESE LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...
ON SATURDAY MORNING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE FL/GA COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AS IT SKIRTS OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
WHILE THE MOISTURE AND RAIN FROM THE COASTAL LOW WILL IMPACT AREAS
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS, THE APPROACHING
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS PERIODS OF
RAIN WITH PERHAPS A LULL SATURDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE RUSH OF COLDER DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND. AS THE PRECIP IS PUSHED OUT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, A RAIN
SNOW MIXTURE BEGINNING ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER COULD OCCUR. BY THE
END OF THE EVENT, SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE RAIN/SNOW MIX LINE COULD
EXPAND SOUTHWARD ALONG AND NORTH OF US-64. AFTER THE SUNSETS TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INCREASING CHANCES FRO THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AS THE PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY EVENING. BEST
CHANCE FOR ALL SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE,BUT WEST OF I95,
WITH THE RAIN/SNOW MIX CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN REGION.
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES AFTER THE
PRECIP MOVES OUT. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO
THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT AND WIDE SPREAD TEENS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION FOR THE LOWS MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THESE
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE DANGEROUS, WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED. THE SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
REGIONS WILL SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOW 20S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN MOST AREAS. FOR EXAMPLE AREAS AROUND
RALEIGH WILL SEE AROUND 86 HOURS OF TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
MONDAY AND MUCH OF TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S NW TO NEAR 30
SE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS TO NEAR 20 IN MOST AREAS. AGAIN
WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. WHILE MODELS ARE STILL INCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THE PARENT LOW THAT WOULD FUEL THE PRECIP AND P-TYPE, ENSEMBLES HAVE
SHOWN THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE
SOME MEASURABLE SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE, BUT THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WILL THERE
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG SIDE THE COLD AIR. WILL KEEP A CLOSE WATCH
ON THE DEVELOPING LOW AND EXPECTED TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1255 PM THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOURS TAF PERIOD. AS THE
MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK SHIFTS EASTWARD, SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS WITH INFREQUENT GUSTS 30-35 KTS
POSSIBLE. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE
EVENING. A 30-40KT WLY LLJ AT 2000 FT AGL WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH AROUND 06Z, BEFORE DIMINISHING.
OUTLOOK: DRY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND ACCOMPANYING RAIN, SUB-VFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS,
AND MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...
STRENGTHENING SWLY SURFACE WINDS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30
MPH (INFREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH) WITH MIN RH BETWEEN 25-35
PERCENT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE BEHAVIOR THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH NCFS, CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINAL ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
UNFAVORABLE OVERLAP OF STRONGEST WINDS, LOWEST RH, AND DRIEST FUELS.
MAKE SURE TO NOT LEAVE ANY FIRES UNATTENDED THIS AFTERNOON AS WIND
GUSTS BEGIN TO INCREASE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY STILL
BE IN THE 30S AND COULD RESULT IN ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 20:
KGSO: 29/1983
KRDU: 28/1970
JANUARY 21:
KGSO: 21/1985
KFAY: 31/1983
JANUARY 22:
KGSO: 29/2014
KRDU: 27/1970
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...SWIGGETT
SHORT TERM...HELOCK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...SWIGGETT/CBL/MWS
FIRE WEATHER...CBL/SWIGGETT
CLIMATE...RAH
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