276
FXUS62 KRAH 170741
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE ANTECEDENT ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL BRIEFLY
MODERATE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING BITTERLY
COLD AIR INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...
..SUNNY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT
A TRANSITORY SFC HIGH AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING.
GIVEN LITTLE TO THERMAL ADVECTION INTO THE AREA, LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY. HIGHS AGAIN
RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO LOWER/MID 50S SOUTH.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE CA/BAJA PENINSULA
BORDER WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH LATER THIS MORNING AND
THEN RACE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL REACH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP, THAT WILL FALL AS ALL RAIN, COULD MAKE IT INTO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE, DRY. LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 30 ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE LATEST TO ARRIVE, TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...
...LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF STINT OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED WITH
TIME AS IT TRAVERSES THE AREA SATURDAY. FOLLOWING QUICKLY ON THE
HEELS OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.
ENERGY TRANSFERAL TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE SE
COAST WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN QPF INLAND, OVER THE
CAROLINAS. WITH EACH PASSING MODEL RUN, QPF HAS BEEN STEADILY
DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC, EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE ZONES(SAMPSON CO.), WHERE
UP TO TWO-TENTHS IS POSSIBLE.
AS THE LEAD COASTAL LOW MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA, AN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING LULL IN PRECIP LOOKS PROBABLE, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OWING TO RENEWED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. NO P-TYPE CONCERNS WITH PRECIP FALLING
AS ALL RAIN. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CLOUD COVER THIN OUT
ENOUGH SATURDAY DURING THE DAY TO SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE, POTENTIAL FLIRTING WITH UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM
MID/UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...
ON SATURDAY MORNING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE FL/GA COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AS IT SKIRTS OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
WHILE THE MOISTURE AND RAIN FROM THE COASTAL LOW WILL IMPACT AREAS
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS, THE APPROACHING
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS PERIODS OF
RAIN WITH PERHAPS A LULL SATURDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE RUSH OF COLDER DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND. AS THE PRECIP IS PUSHED OUT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, A RAIN
SNOW MIXTURE BEGINNING ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER COULD OCCUR. BY THE
END OF THE EVENT, SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE RAIN/SNOW MIX LINE COULD
EXPAND SOUTHWARD ALONG AND NORTH OF US-64. AFTER THE SUNSETS TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INCREASING CHANCES FRO THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AS THE PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY EVENING. BEST
CHANCE FOR ALL SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE,BUT WEST OF I95,
WITH THE RAIN/SNOW MIX CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN REGION.
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES AFTER THE
PRECIP MOVES OUT. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO
THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT AND WIDE SPREAD TEENS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION FOR THE LOWS MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THESE
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE DANGEROUS, WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED. THE SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
REGIONS WILL SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOW 20S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN MOST AREAS. FOR EXAMPLE AREAS AROUND
RALEIGH WILL SEE AROUND 86 HOURS OF TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
MONDAY AND MUCH OF TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S NW TO NEAR 30
SE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS TO NEAR 20 IN MOST AREAS. AGAIN
WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. WHILE MODELS ARE STILL INCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THE PARENT LOW THAT WOULD FUEL THE PRECIP AND P-TYPE, ENSEMBLES HAVE
SHOWN THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE
SOME MEASURABLE SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE, BUT THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WILL THERE
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG SIDE THE COLD AIR. WILL KEEP A CLOSE WATCH
ON THE DEVELOPING LOW AND EXPECTED TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY. FOLLOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SUNSET, CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. CEILINGS AT KINT AND KGSO COULD LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT
RAIN BETWEEN 09 TO 12Z SATURDAY.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK: LIGHT RAIN, SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS, AND MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH TO MENTION
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER DURING THIS PERIOD
AND THUS AVIATION IMPACTS MAY BE NOT AS GREAT.
FOLLOWING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE SATURDAY SYSTEM, A STRONG COLD
FRONT WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP AND SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS. ADDITIONALLY, AS COLDER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, RAIN MAY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. DRY AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS THEN RETURN ON MONDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 20:
KGSO: 29/1983
KRDU: 28/1970
JANUARY 21:
KGSO: 21/1985
KFAY: 31/1983
JANUARY 22:
KGSO: 29/2014
KRDU: 27/1970
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CBL
CLIMATE...RAH
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