564
FXUS62 KRAH 171740
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE ANTECEDENT ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL BRIEFLY
MODERATE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING BITTERLY
COLD AIR INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 955 AM FRIDAY...
..SUNNY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT
THE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS THAT WERE MADE WITH THE MID-MORNING UPDATE
WERE TO RAISE AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES. THE LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS OFF THE 12Z GSO RAOB WERE 1297M (ROUGHLY 8M GREATER THAN
YESTERDAY) AND WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THURS.
FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM UPPER 40S (NE) TO MID/UPPER 50S (S).
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...
A TRANSITORY SFC HIGH AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING.
GIVEN LITTLE TO THERMAL ADVECTION INTO THE AREA, LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE CA/BAJA PENINSULA
BORDER WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH LATER THIS MORNING AND
THEN RACE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL REACH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP, THAT WILL FALL AS ALL RAIN, COULD MAKE IT INTO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE, DRY. LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 30 ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE LATEST TO ARRIVE, TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...
...LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF STINT OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED WITH
TIME AS IT TRAVERSES THE AREA SATURDAY. FOLLOWING QUICKLY ON THE
HEELS OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.
ENERGY TRANSFERAL TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE SE
COAST WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN QPF INLAND, OVER THE
CAROLINAS. WITH EACH PASSING MODEL RUN, QPF HAS BEEN STEADILY
DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC, EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE ZONES(SAMPSON CO.), WHERE
UP TO TWO-TENTHS IS POSSIBLE.
AS THE LEAD COASTAL LOW MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA, AN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING LULL IN PRECIP LOOKS PROBABLE, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OWING TO RENEWED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. NO P-TYPE CONCERNS WITH PRECIP FALLING
AS ALL RAIN. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CLOUD COVER THIN OUT
ENOUGH SATURDAY DURING THE DAY TO SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE, POTENTIAL FLIRTING WITH UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM
MID/UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING, MOVE
NEAR CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE TO
THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT THAT THE PEAK OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LATE MORNING, WITH DECREASING POPS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS BY
MIDNIGHT. MODELS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION, AND THINK THAT THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW BEFORE
LATE AFTERNOON, AND MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION AFTER THAT TIME SHOULD
FALL AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END, IT
SEEMS THAT ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN CONVERSATIONAL WITH
NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
AFTER THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY, CENTERED OVER MONTANA AND EXTENDING ALL
THE WAY SOUTHEAST INTO FLORIDA. A DEEP POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL ALSO BE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY, WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS ROTATING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY,
SHIFTING OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY, AND ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE
SPECIFICS OF THE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT SEEMS
PRETTY TYPICAL FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS 4-5 DAYS AWAY. THE EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE CONSISTENTLY SHOWS PRECIPITATION EXTENDING THE FARTHEST
INLAND, AND COULD BE CONSIDERED THE WET OUTLIER. BY COMPARISON, THE
00Z ECMWF ONLY INCLUDES POPS OVER SAMPSON COUNTY, LEAVING THE OTHER
30 COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA DRY. AT THIS TIME FRAME, WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAN ON ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS OVER DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS,
AND HAVE SLIGHTLY EXPANDED POPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS KEEPS CHANCE
POPS GENERALLY EAST OF US-1, WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST,
AND THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
FORECAST IS DRY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO PLUMMET THAT NIGHT, WITH LOWS DROPPING FROM THE MID TEENS
TO THE MID 20S. HIGHS MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S BEFORE SOME MODERATION OCCURS ON
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOW 40S. LOWS
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT, WITH WIDESPREAD
TEENS AND ISOLATED LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT IS
SOMEWHAT FITTING THAT THERE WILL BE SUCH A COLD STRETCH OF WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK CONSIDERING THE ALL-TIME RECORD COLD TEMPERATURE AT
EACH OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES (GREENSBORO, RALEIGH, AND
FAYETTEVILLE) WAS SET ALMOST 40 YEARS AGO ON JANUARY 21, 1985. WHILE
RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE THREATENED, THERE WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF BREAKING SOME RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM FRIDAY...
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AND
LOWER TO LESS THAN 10K FEET THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING, BUT IS
EXPECTED TO STAY PREDOMINANTLY VFR. LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE TRIAD (INT/GSO) BEFORE 12Z AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE OTHER
TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PERIODICALLY VSBY MAY DROP INTO
MVFR RANGE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON BEST TIMING OF OCCURRENCE AT
THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SAT AFT/EVE BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 06Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR
IN THE IN-SITU DAMMING REGIME SAT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
GIVEN INCONSISTENCIES IN ITS STRENGTH AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE.
ADDITIONALLY, AREAS OF FOG, POTENTIALLY DENSE, WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO THE
AREA INTO SUN MORNING. ALL TAF SITES HAVE RELATIVELY EQUAL CHANCES
OF THE ABOVE HAZARDS. AS PRECIP COMES TO AN END SUN AFT/EVE, A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 20:
KGSO: 29/1983
KRDU: 28/1970
JANUARY 21:
KGSO: 21/1985
KFAY: 31/1983
JANUARY 22:
KGSO: 29/2014
KRDU: 27/1970
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...SWIGGETT/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...SWIGGETT
CLIMATE...RAH
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