067
FXUS62 KRAH 171913
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
213 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE ANTECEDENT ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL BRIEFLY
MODERATE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING BITTERLY
COLD AIR INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING OPAQUE
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AS MOISTURE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM JET LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS
VALLEY SPREADS INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING IN THE LEFT-EXIT-REGION OF THE JET WILL PROVIDE AMBLE
LIFT INTO THE AREA, THE PRECEDING THERMO-PROFILE IS INCREDIBLY DRY
AND IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO
REACH THE SURFACE.
NEAR THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN THE TRIAD, POINT SOUNDING AND
PARTIAL THICKNESS ANALYSIS SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX MAY
BE POSSIBLE FROM 10-13Z. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SURFACE
TEMPS AND WET-BULB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE,
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL LIQUID HEADING INTO SAT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE
NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING AS CLOUD COVER THICKENS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...
ON SATURDAY MORNING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE
FL/GA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AS IT CONTINUES
NE JUST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE COME MORE SCATTERED AND ISOLATED WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT PERIOD OF RAIN TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS (FROM SATURDAY
MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING) ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO NEAR A 0.25” IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NC. WHILE MOST OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT,
THERE COULD BE A FEW WAVES OF MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. ONE HAZARD TO ALSO MENTION IS WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT COULD RESULT IN SOME LOW VISIBILITIES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT COULD SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S THEN WARMING THROUGH THE DAY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST “ABOVE
NORMAL” NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 30S NORTH, TO LOW 40S
SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING, MOVE
NEAR CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE TO
THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT THAT THE PEAK OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LATE MORNING, WITH DECREASING POPS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS BY
MIDNIGHT. MODELS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION, AND THINK THAT THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW BEFORE
LATE AFTERNOON, AND MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION AFTER THAT TIME SHOULD
FALL AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END, IT
SEEMS THAT ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN CONVERSATIONAL WITH
NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
AFTER THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY, CENTERED OVER MONTANA AND EXTENDING ALL
THE WAY SOUTHEAST INTO FLORIDA. A DEEP POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WILL ALSO BE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY, WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS ROTATING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY,
SHIFTING OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY, AND ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE
SPECIFICS OF THE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT SEEMS
PRETTY TYPICAL FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS 4-5 DAYS AWAY. THE EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE CONSISTENTLY SHOWS PRECIPITATION EXTENDING THE FARTHEST
INLAND, AND COULD BE CONSIDERED THE WET OUTLIER. BY COMPARISON, THE
00Z ECMWF ONLY INCLUDES POPS OVER SAMPSON COUNTY, LEAVING THE OTHER
30 COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA DRY. AT THIS TIME FRAME, WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAN ON ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS OVER DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS,
AND HAVE SLIGHTLY EXPANDED POPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS KEEPS CHANCE
POPS GENERALLY EAST OF US-1, WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST,
AND THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
FORECAST IS DRY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO PLUMMET THAT NIGHT, WITH LOWS DROPPING FROM THE MID TEENS
TO THE MID 20S. HIGHS MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S BEFORE SOME MODERATION OCCURS ON
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOW 40S. LOWS
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT, WITH WIDESPREAD
TEENS AND ISOLATED LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT IS
SOMEWHAT FITTING THAT THERE WILL BE SUCH A COLD STRETCH OF WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK CONSIDERING THE ALL-TIME RECORD COLD TEMPERATURE AT
EACH OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES (GREENSBORO, RALEIGH, AND
FAYETTEVILLE) WAS SET ALMOST 40 YEARS AGO ON JANUARY 21, 1985. WHILE
RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE THREATENED, THERE WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF BREAKING SOME RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM FRIDAY...
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AND
LOWER TO LESS THAN 10K FEET THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING, BUT IS
EXPECTED TO STAY PREDOMINANTLY VFR. LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE TRIAD (INT/GSO) BEFORE 12Z AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE OTHER
TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PERIODICALLY VSBY MAY DROP INTO
MVFR RANGE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON BEST TIMING OF OCCURRENCE AT
THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SAT AFT/EVE BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 06Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR
IN THE IN-SITU DAMMING REGIME SAT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING
GIVEN INCONSISTENCIES IN ITS STRENGTH AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE.
ADDITIONALLY, AREAS OF FOG, POTENTIALLY DENSE, WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO THE
AREA INTO SUN MORNING. ALL TAF SITES HAVE RELATIVELY EQUAL CHANCES
OF THE ABOVE HAZARDS. AS PRECIP COMES TO AN END SUN AFT/EVE, A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 20:
KGSO: 29/1983
KRDU: 28/1970
JANUARY 21:
KGSO: 21/1985
KFAY: 31/1983
JANUARY 22:
KGSO: 29/2014
KRDU: 27/1970
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...SWIGGETT
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...SWIGGETT
CLIMATE...RAH
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