896
FXUS62 KRAH 172345
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
MILDER AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING BITTERLY COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING OPAQUE
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AS MOISTURE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM JET LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS
VALLEY SPREADS INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING IN THE LEFT-EXIT-REGION OF THE JET WILL PROVIDE AMBLE
LIFT INTO THE AREA, THE PRECEDING THERMO-PROFILE IS INCREDIBLY DRY
AND IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO
REACH THE SURFACE.
NEAR THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN THE TRIAD, POINT SOUNDING AND
PARTIAL THICKNESS ANALYSIS SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX MAY
BE POSSIBLE FROM 10-13Z. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SURFACE
TEMPS AND WET-BULB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE,
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL LIQUID HEADING INTO SAT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE
NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING AS CLOUD COVER THICKENS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...
ON SATURDAY MORNING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE
FL/GA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AS IT CONTINUES
NE JUST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE COME MORE SCATTERED AND ISOLATED WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT PERIOD OF RAIN TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS (FROM SATURDAY
MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING) ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO NEAR A 0.25” IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NC. WHILE MOST OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT,
THERE COULD BE A FEW WAVES OF MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. ONE HAZARD TO ALSO MENTION IS WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT COULD RESULT IN SOME LOW VISIBILITIES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT COULD SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S THEN WARMING THROUGH THE DAY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST “ABOVE
NORMAL” NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 30S NORTH, TO LOW 40S
SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 257 PM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY: A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
SUNDAY JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT. STRONG UPPER-DIVERGENCE
WILL SLIDE OVER OUR AREA AND COMBINE WITH LINGERING ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE TO PROMOTE CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PRIMARILY FALL AS LIQUID, WITH A LOW QPF OF A FEW HUNDREDS TO
A TENTH EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW-END CHANCE THAT A BRIEF CHANGE
OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THOSE NORTH OF I-85,
BUT THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC CASE OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE
MOISTURE. THE PROFILE DRIES OUT QUITE QUICKLY, SO EVEN IF SNOW
DEVELOPS, IT'LL BE SHORT LIVED AND BE INCONSEQUENTIAL.
PRE-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
(NW TO SE) SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 925 TO 850 MB CAA WILL REALLY RAMP UP
SUNDAY EVENING AS SFC WINDS GUST UP TOWARDS 25 TO 35 MPH. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR WE'VE EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS. HIGHS ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 20S (N) AND
LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE SC BORDER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
PARTICULARLY COLD, WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (SOME SPOTS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS). RESIDUAL LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE POCKETS OF SINGLE DIGIT
WIND CHILLS BOTH MORNINGS AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION WISE, THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
SYSTEM PRIMARILY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WRT TO PATTERN EVOLUTION AND
CONSEQUENTLY SNOW CHANCES FOR OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL THUS FAR, SIMULATING A MOSTLY OPEN WAVE THAT SCOOTS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
PROMOTE VERY LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR OUR AREA, CONFINING ANY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST. THE DETERMINISTIC CMC AND THE 06
AND 12Z GFS RUNS ARE MUCH MORE BULLISH DEVELOPING A LEGIT COASTAL
LOW WHICH WOULD PROMOTE BETTER SNOW CHANCES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NC.
HOWEVER, THE GFS IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN QUITE INCONSISTENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM, AND IN FACT LOOKED MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECWMF SOLUTION JUST
12 HOURS EARLIER AT THE 00Z JANUARY 17 RUN (I.E. LITTLE TO NO SNOW,
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COAST). GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES AND
DISAGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT, KEPT POPS SIMILAR TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE QPF (ENS, GEFS, AND GEPS ALL HAVE
GENERALLY 40 TO 60% TUESDAY NIGHT).
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM
FRIDAY, BUT IT'S TOO FAR OUT TO GET INTO ANY DETAILS AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AND
LOWER TO LESS THAN 10K FEET THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING, BUT IS
EXPECTED TO STAY PREDOMINANTLY VFR. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE TRIAD (INT/GSO) AROUND DAYBREAK AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO
THE OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK: A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SAT AFT/EVE BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 06Z/SUNDAY. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR/LIFR IN THE IN-SITU DAMMING REGIME SAT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON TIMING GIVEN INCONSISTENCIES IN ITS STRENGTH AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE. ADDITIONALLY, AREAS OF FOG, POTENTIALLY DENSE, WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND LIFTS A WARM
FRONT INTO THE AREA INTO SUN MORNING. AS PRECIP COMES TO AN END SUN
AFT/EVE, A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN LATE.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 20:
KGSO: 29/1983
KRDU: 28/1970
JANUARY 21:
KGSO: 21/1985
KFAY: 31/1983
JANUARY 22:
KGSO: 29/2014
KRDU: 27/1970
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT/CBL
NEAR TERM...SWIGGETT
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...LUCHETTI
AVIATION...BADGETT/SWIGGETT
CLIMATE...RAH
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