729
FXUS62 KRAH 180804
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
MILDER AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING BITTERLY COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 928 PM FRIDAY...
CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF OUR MID-
LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST IN THE MODELS TO REACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY 12Z SAT. AT
THE SURFACE, THE CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC
COAST, WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRAPED NE TO SW OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WAS ALSO PRESENT ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THE 00Z GSO
SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE COLUMN.
AS THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST, HEIGHT
FALLS AND LIFT FROM THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A JET WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION. WAA IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WILL REACH OUR WESTERN
ZONES TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MUCH OF THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA ARE CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S,
WITH POCKETS OF LOW/MID 30S OVER THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE SKIES ARE STILL CLEAR. WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID 30S, WITH A FEW UPPER 20S IN
OUR NE, THEN GRADUALLY RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DENSE OVERCAST
TAKING OVER. THERE STILL IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE A WINTRY MIX COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT EARLY SAT. THIS WOULD APPEAR
RELATED TO SOME INITIAL SUB-FREEZING WET-BULB TEMPS ALOFT, PRIOR TO
SATURATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MASS. HOWEVER, THIS APPEARS
LIMITED AT BEST, AS MOST FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WHEN SATURATION
OCCURS, THE LAYER WARMS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE LOWEST 4 KFT OR SO. SO
ALL IN ALL, NO IMPACTS OF ANY KIND ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...
ON SATURDAY MORNING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE
FL/GA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AS IT CONTINUES
NE JUST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE COME MORE SCATTERED AND ISOLATED WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT PERIOD OF RAIN TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS (FROM SATURDAY
MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING) ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO NEAR A 0.25” IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NC. WHILE MOST OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT,
THERE COULD BE A FEW WAVES OF MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. ONE HAZARD TO ALSO MENTION IS WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT COULD RESULT IN SOME LOW VISIBILITIES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT COULD SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S THEN WARMING THROUGH THE DAY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST “ABOVE
NORMAL” NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 30S NORTH, TO LOW 40S
SOUTH.
SUNDAY: A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
SUNDAY JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT. STRONG UPPER-DIVERGENCE
WILL SLIDE OVER OUR AREA AND COMBINE WITH LINGERING ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE TO PROMOTE CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PRIMARILY FALL AS LIQUID, WITH A LOW QPF OF A FEW HUNDREDS TO
A TENTH EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW-END CHANCE THAT A BRIEF CHANGE
OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THOSE NORTH OF I-85,
BUT THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC CASE OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE
MOISTURE. THE PROFILE DRIES OUT QUITE QUICKLY, SO EVEN IF SNOW
DEVELOPS, IT'LL BE SHORT LIVED AND BE INCONSEQUENTIAL.
PRE-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
(NW TO SE) SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 925 TO 850 MB CAA WILL REALLY RAMP UP
SUNDAY EVENING AS SFC WINDS GUST UP TOWARDS 25 TO 35 MPH. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
ON MONDAY MORNING, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
MONTANA AND EXTEND SOUTHEAST ALL THE WAY INTO FLORIDA. MONDAY WILL
BE A SUNNY BUT SHARPLY COLDER DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE ANYWHERE
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN SUNDAY AND WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT, AND SLIGHTLY GREATER CLOUD COVER IS THE PRIMARY REASON THAT
MONDAY NIGHT'S LOWS HAVE COME UP EVER SO SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST - WHILE TEENS ARE STILL FORECAST, SINGLE DIGIT LOWS HAVE
BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE STORM THAT WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TUESDAY, CROSS FLORIDA, AND MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SHORELINE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, THE
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST
(INLAND) WITH PRECIPITATION, AND WHILE THAT REMAINS THE CASE, THE
DETERMINISTIC EUROPEAN, GFS, AND GEFS HAVE ALL SHIFTED PRECIPITATION
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST NOW AS WELL. THERE IS RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW THAT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION, AND CONSIDERING THE COLD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE, THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ALL SNOW. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO
LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE US-1
CORRIDOR, BUT WE DO NOT PRODUCE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECASTS THAT
FAR OUT. SOME SNOW COULD LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE DRY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY, TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT PERIOD, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS.
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, THERE SHOULD BE A
BRIEF RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF AND GFS
BOTH SHOW YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST,
AND VARY IN TIMING AND HOW FAR INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD. THE
GFS IS QUICKER AND GIVES MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW TO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER
(THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY) AND IS MUCH FARTHER INLAND WITH ITS
PRECIPITATION. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATING OF TEMPERATURES
FROM THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL STILL
HAVE COLD AIR IN PLACE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION AND ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN. WON'T GET TOO CUTE WITH
DETAILS FOR NOW, BUT DO HAVE CHANCE POPS APPROXIMATELY EAST OF US-1.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY, WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1250 AM SATURDAY...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LOWER TO 5-
10 KFT BY 12Z AS PRECIP SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BETWEEN 12 TO 18Z, BEFORE EXITING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR AS THE RAIN
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DURING WHICH TIME
CEILINGS ARE TO LOWER TO IFR AND EVENTUALLY LIFR OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, AREAS OF FOG, POTENTIALLY DENSE, WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA.
LIGHT S-SWLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH SOME BRIEF
GUSTINESS OF 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF THESE
GUSTS WILL MATERIALIZE.
OUTLOOK: WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH
MIDDAY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND
EVENTUALLY RETURN TO VFR FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, PRECIP COULD END AS A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH, HOWEVER A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 20:
KGSO: 29/1983
KRDU: 28/1970
JANUARY 21:
KFAY: 31/1983
JANUARY 22:
KGSO: 29/2014
KRDU: 27/1970
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT/CBL
NEAR TERM...KREN
SHORT TERM...CA/LUCHETTI
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...CBL
CLIMATE...RAH
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