102
FXUS62 KRAH 192047
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
BRING BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 312 PM SUNDAY...
WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION, AND EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST,
A FEW LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAYBE EVEN A RUBLE OF THUNDER IN
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL PASS BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING
THE REGION. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
SURFACE LOW EXITS, EXPECT INCREASING WIND GUSTS. A FEW SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA HAVE ALREADY REPORTED
GUSTS OF 28 TO 35 MPH. WE CAN EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO SPREAD INTO OUR
REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE REGION AND BRINGS A
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND. AS THE RAIN AND CLOUDS EXIT, COLD DRY AIR
AND AS MENTION BEFORE GUST WIND WILL FILTER INTO CENTRAL NC.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE NW PIEDMONT, LOW 20S AROUND THE TRIANGLE AREA, AND
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. WITH
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT, EXPECT OUR FIRST ROUND OF WINDS CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGIT TO MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...
..FIRST DAY OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
CONTINUED 925 TO 850 MB CAA WILL PROMOTE COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WITH HIGHS MAXING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S (NW) TO LOWER TO MID
30S (SE). RESIDUAL GUSTY NW SFC WINDS EARLY MONDAY WILL SUBSIDE
SOME BY THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SOME STIRRING OF WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN). WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS, WITH PERHAPS SOME STIRRING OF THE
WINDS, THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF BELOW 10 DEGREE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, WE'LL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOME OUR AREA
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...
FIRST, THE HIGH CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST - THE
COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO
THE MID 30S, LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS, HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S, AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 6
TO 16 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR MANY LOCATIONS, WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE COLDEST NIGHT SINCE DECEMBER 24, 2022. LUCKILY, WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE
ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION TO WIND CHILLS. AT SOME POINT AN EXTREME
COLD ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY, A PRODUCT WHICH HAS OFFICIALLY
REPLACED WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.
NOW, THE LOWER CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST - SNOW
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
COVER MOST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL BE HARD TO DISLODGE AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO, CROSSES FLORIDA, AND
EMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALL MODELS
ARE SHOWING A LOBE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AT NEARLY 1040 MB OVER WEST
VIRGINIA, AND WITH SUCH COLD/DRY AIR, IT WILL BE HARD FOR
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE MUCH INWARD PROGRESS FROM THE COASTLINE. THIS
WILL BE AN UNUSUAL STORM IN THAT MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THAT
HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COASTLINE, WHERE WARMER
AIR WOULD NORMALLY ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. HOWEVER, THE 00Z
MODELS HAVE SUPPRESSED HIGHER LIQUID TOTALS CLOSER TO THE COAST,
REDUCING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS INLAND. THERE IS STILL HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT ALL PRECIPITATION LOCALLY WILL FALL AS SNOW, AND DID
NOT MAKE MUCH CHANCE TO THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FORECAST - SNOW IS STILL LIKELY GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE US-1
CORRIDOR. THE WINDOW FOR SNOW TO FALL HAS SHRUNK SLIGHTLY, WITH THE
CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY, PEAKING IN THE
LATE EVENING, AND DEPARTING TO THE EAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, MODEL DISAGREEMENTS CONTINUE FOR THE LATE WEEK
STORM BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE GFS REMAINS AN EARLIER
SOLUTION THAT IS QUICKER MOVING, WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS A LATER
SOLUTION THAT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION LONGER. THE EURO HAS
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS IN KEEPING PRECIPITATION A BIT CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND NOT BRINGING PRECIPITATION QUITE AS FAR INLAND.
PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE QUITE VARIED WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND RAIN,
SNOW, AND FREEZING RAIN ALL REMAIN POSSIBILITIES WITH THIS SYSTEM,
ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS FROM THE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT DURING THIS PERIOD,
BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 236 PM SUNDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IS RESULTING IN
LOW CEILING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE MUCH OF THE RAIN/SHOWERS HAVE BEGAN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THERE ARE A FEW LINGERING LINES OF PRECIP
STILL MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIOD OF
EVEN LOWER CEILING AND VISIBILITY AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS.
VISIBILITIES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, WESTERLY AND
NWLY GUSTINESS OF 20-25KTS WILL DEVELOP WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30
KTS AS THE FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE GUSTINESS
TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH, HOWEVER A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS IN THE FORM OF SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 20:
KGSO: 29/1983
KRDU: 28/1970
JANUARY 21:
KFAY: 31/1983
JANUARY 22:
KGSO: 29/2014
KRDU: 27/1970
JANUARY 23:
KFAY: 30/1970
RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 23:
KRDU: 8/1977
KFAY: 9/1970
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...LUCHETTI
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...CBL/CA
CLIMATE...RAH
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