905
FXUS62 KRAH 201941
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK, BRINGING BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LATER IN THE WEEK, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 235 PM MONDAY...
* COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC 10 PM
TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM TUESDAY WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM 2 TO 9
DEGREES
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY AND TONIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AND UPPER 30S LOW
40S IN THE SE PORTIONS OF NC. EXPECT THESE TEMPERATURES TO BE VERY
CLOSE TO OUR HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT.LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS IN THE
NW TO UPPER TEENS IN THE SE, BUT AS LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT EXPECT WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC 10 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM TUESDAY
WITH RESPECT TO THESE SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS. AS ITS THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THAT WE WILL SEE TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK, IT WOULD BE GOOD PRACTICE TO CHECK ON NEIGHBORS, MAKE
PREPARATIONS FOR YOUR HOUSE, WEAR APPROPRIATE CLOTHING, AND KEEP
PETS INDOORS OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...
* POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW PERSISTS, MAINLY OVER OUR SOUTHEAST HALF
* ARCTIC OUTBREAK CONTINUES; ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LIKELY
TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING
TUE/TUE NIGHT: DEEP FRIGID AIR REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH AN ARCTIC
SURFACE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E CONUS, DRIVING OUR
THICKNESSES DOWN TO 55-70 M BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE COLD AIR OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF
THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SE, AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO N MEXICO EARLY TUE SHIFTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS WITH A POSITIVE TILT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. WHILE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM
THE WSW TUE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE DRY
GIVEN THE STUBBORN DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM READINGS STILL SUPPORT HIGH IN THE LOW-MID 30S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT UPPER 20S/AROUND 30 IN THE TRIAD AND AT
THE VA BORDER. CLOUD BASES WILL DROP GRADUALLY ACROSS THE S AND SE
LATE TUE AND PARTICULARLY INTO TUE EVENING, AS UPPER DIVERGENCE
WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARLY 200 KT JET WILL PROVIDE
DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AS IT CROSSES THE GULF STATES AND
CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUE
NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS OF
THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN CAROLINAS, AREAS UNACCUSTOMED TO
FROZEN PRECIP. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE THERMAL AND WET BULB
COLUMN WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN ITS ENTIRETY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
NC TUE EVENING/NIGHT, STRONGLY FAVORING A PRECIP TYPE OF ALL SNOW
WITH WHATEVER FALLS IN OUR AREA. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE LARGE
SCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH WITH HOW FAR INLAND THE PRECIP
GETS INTO CENTRAL NC, WITH THE GFS/GEFS OUTPUT GENERALLY THE DRIEST
(BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP FARTHER SE) AND THE ECMWF/ENS OUTPUT
GENERALLY THE WETTEST (BACK EDGE WELL NW INTO OUR AREA). THE MORE
RECENT RUNS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, DEPICTING THE BACK
EDGE OF A DUSTING THREAT NEAR OR JUST SE OF RALEIGH, AND THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF A HALF INCH CONFINED TO AREAS SE OF A CLINTON-TO-
GOLDSBORO LINE. AND NOW WE HAVE THE ADDED VOTES OF SOME HIGH-RES
MODEL OUTPUT, WHICH SUPPORT HOLDING THE NOTEWORTHY ACCUMULATIONS IN
OUR FAR SE, WHILE FURTHER NW TOWARD SOUTHERN PINES, RALEIGH, AND
WARRENTON, FALLING PRECIP WILL BE FIGHTING THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
THE SURFACE HIGH CORE SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS; THIS REGION SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING,
WITH ONLY A FEW INCONSEQUENTIAL FLURRIES IN THE TRIAD REGION.
FOCUSING ON THE HIGHER RES MODELS, THE CHANCES OF ONE-HALF TO NEAR
ONE INCH OF SNOW IS 30-50% OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF SAMPSON
COUNTY, AND MUCH OF THAT SEEMS TO FALL IN A SHORT TIME, BETWEEN 8 PM
AND 12 MIDNIGHT TUE EVENING/NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, GIVEN HOW
MUCH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN PLACE THERE AND THE FACT THAT THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL BE HOLDING WELL SE, BUT IF THE CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS HOLD, WE MAY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN OUR SE.
ANY PRECIP WILL TREND DOWN AND OUT OF OUR SE OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.
REGARDLESS OF THE SNOWFALL, IT'S GOING TO BE VERY COLD YET AGAIN,
AND ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 10F.
WED/WED NIGHT: FAIR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WED MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES TO OUR ESE AND THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES TO OUR N, NOSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC. BUT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE FAST/LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL MISS VALLEY, RESULTING
IN CLOUDS RETURNING WED AFTERNOON AND ESP WED NIGHT AS WE GET INTO
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF ANOTHER JET EXTENDING FROM S OK/N TX INTO
SC. ONCE AGAIN, ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT ANOMALOUSLY
COLD TEMPS, WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30 NW TO THE MID
30S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE TEENS AS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TREND TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE. SUFFICE IT TO SAY, WHATEVER SNOW FALLS TUE
EVENING/NIGHT WILL STICK AROUND AT LEAST THROUGH WED NIGHT. -GIH
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT, WITH GREATEST DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL
EXPECTED WED AND THU.
* ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL NC THU/THU NIGHT, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: ALOFT, THE S/W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US/MID-ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE ON WED. MEANWHILE, WITHIN THE
BROAD PARENT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, A NRN STREAM S/W WILL
DROP SWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. THIS S/W WILL SWING EWD INTO THE MS
VALLEY AS YET ANOTHER S/W DROPS SWD INTO THE PLAINS WED NIGHT. AS
THESE SHORTWAVES SWING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY, OH VALLEY, AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST THU/THU NIGHT, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHARPEN TO
THE WEST AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY OVER
CENTRAL NC. AT THE SURFACE, THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE NRN
APPALACHIANS WED MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE NRN
MID-ATLANTIC WED, THEN WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES NEWD THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST US. THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO RIDGE SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL
NC WED NIGHT, BUT RETREAT OUT OF THE REGION THU AS THE PARENT HIGH
MOVES EWD OUT OVER THE NRN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE WAVE/LOW
MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE WED NIGHT, AMPLIFYING THE COASTAL TROUGH AS IT LIFTS NEWD OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST ON THU. A STRONGER LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE
CENTRAL FL COAST AND QUICKLY MOVE ENEWD TOWARD BERMUDA THU NIGHT.
WITH THE RENEWED CYCLOGENESIS THU/THU NIGHT, MOISTURE COULD GET
PULLED INLAND AS FAR AS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND POSSIBLY FAR ERN
PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL NC. THERE IS CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY WRT
TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST AND CLOUD
COVER INCREASES ON THU. HOWEVER, STILL EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE, ALBEIT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION,
MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS, THU/THU NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES: HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOW/MID 30S SOUTH
AND LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE 10-20 DEGF RANGE NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY IN MIND, CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS THU IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S AND LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
FRIDAY ONWARD: ALOFT, THE PARENT TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT AND ITS
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVE EWD THROUGH THE EASTERN US FRI/FRI NIGHT.
THE FLOW MAY BECOME BRIEFLY ZONAL/BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC SAT/SAT
NIGHT, HOWEVER THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES THEREAFTER. AT THE
SURFACE, AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT,
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH SHOULD LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST
US/MID-ATLANTIC SAT/SAT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FROM FRI-SUN. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY
FRI AND SAT, WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SUN/SUN
NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED
GUST OF 15-20KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT LARGELY
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. LIGHT N TO NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK: ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, WITH ANY
ACCUMULATIONS MOST FAVORED AT FAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 20:
KGSO: 29/1983
KRDU: 28/1970
JANUARY 21:
KFAY: 31/1983
JANUARY 22:
KGSO: 29/2014
KRDU: 27/1970
JANUARY 23:
KGSO: 28/1954
KFAY: 30/1970
RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 23:
KRDU: 8/1977
KFAY: 9/1970
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KREN/CA
CLIMATE...RAH
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