386  
FXUS62 KRAH 220325  
AFDRAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC  
1024 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION  
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER  
THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING LIGHT  
SNOW TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY  
WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/  
 
AS OF 1024 PM TUESDAY...  
 
THE FOLLOWING HEADLINES CONTINUE...  
 
* WINTER STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND  
EASTERN SANDHILLS THROUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY.  
 
* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE WHERE A DUSTING TO  
2 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.  
 
* COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY  
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED IN ALL COUNTIES, BUT MEASURABLE SNOW HAS  
BEEN REPORTED FROM MAINLY GREENSBORO AND HIGH POINT SOUTH AND EAST.  
THE COASTAL PLAIN HAD BEEN IN A RELATIVE MINIMUM OR DRY POCKET,  
BUT THAT HAS FILLED IN WITH SNOW IN THE PAST HOUR AND CLINTON,  
GOLDSBORO, AND WILSON ARE ALL NOW REPORTING SNOW. THE HIGHER  
TOTALS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN 1-1.5 INCHES IN WAKE COUNTY WITH THE  
INITIAL BAND OF SNOW. THIS BAND OF SNOW CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM  
NEAR SANFORD AND RALEIGH AND SMITHFIELD NE TO HALIFAX AND  
TARBORO IS PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND 0.5 PER HOUR. THE BACK  
EDGE OF THIS BAND OF SNOW APPEARS ON RADAR TO BE FROM NEAR  
TROY AND PITTSBORO TO DURHAM AND HENDERSON. THUS, THE CURRENT  
ADVISORY AREA LOOKS TO GET 1-2 INCHES (EXCEPT IN THE NW WHERE THE  
SNOW HAS ENDED) AS EXPECTED. ALL EYES CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE  
HEAVIER BANDS MOVING NE FROM SC TOWARD THE FAYETTEVILLE AND  
GOLDSBORO AREAS. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD RAMP BACK UP IN AREAS -  
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF RDU THROUGH THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS.  
 
THE TEMPERATURES ARE SO COLD THAT ALL THE SNOW HAS ACCUMULATED.  
READINGS AT 1000 PM WERE IN THE 20-25 RANGE.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION OF 738 PM TUESDAY...  
 
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT IN THE WINTER WEATHER  
ADVISORY. MOST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.  
HOWEVER, THE COLD INFRASTRUCTURE WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW TO STICK  
AND CREATE HAZARDOUS ROADS. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE IN  
DAVIDSON TO GUILFORD TO PERSON COUNTIES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE  
LOWER PIEDMONT. SNOW ENDING TIME IS GENERALLY LATE EVENING TO  
AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EAST.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1240 PM...  
 
THE WINTER STORM THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR AREA LATER THIS  
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS WELL UNDERWAY OVER LA, SOUTHERN  
MS, AND AL. A POTENT 180 KT 250MB JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TO  
AROUND 200 KTS AS THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION SAGS OVER THE SOUTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN BRINGING  
IN VERY LIGHT SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW RATES ARE  
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE COLUMN BEGINS TO FURTHER SATURATE AND  
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL FORCING BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO OUR AREA AFTER  
00Z.  
 
TRENDS IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE THE  
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA. NOW, WE ARE ONLY TALKING  
ABOUT ON THE ORDER OF A HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH, BUT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH  
SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS FOR THE CAROLINAS RESULTS IN DRASTIC DIFFERENCES  
IN THE EVENTUAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. A COMBINATION OF MORE LIQUID  
EQUIVALENT AND HIGHER SNOWFALL RATIO HAS RESULTED IN 2 TO 4 INCHES  
OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA WITH A DUSTING TO  
2 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE  
FROM 9 PM TO 3 AM.  
 
A COUPLE VERY IMPORTANT POINTS TO REMEMBER FOR THIS EVENT. THE VERY  
COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN  
HIGHLY EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS AS SOON AS SNOW BEGINS TO FALL. FIRST  
FLURRIES WILL LIKELY BEGIN VERY LIGHT AND NOT RESULT IN MUCH IMPACT  
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. HOWEVER,  
ONCE SNOW BEGINS TO FALL ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACE, EXPECT SURFACES  
TO BECOME IMMEDIATELY SLIPPERY. ALSO, WITH HIGH SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS  
RESULTING IN DRY AND POWDERY SNOW, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT  
FROM SNOW LOAD, OR STRESS ON TREES TO RESULT IN MANY POWER OUTAGES  
WITH THE MAIN IMPACT FROM HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.  
 
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES  
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS GIVEN THE CONTINUED MIXED  
BOUNDARY LAYER. AS SUCH, THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT  
FOR TONIGHT.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...  
 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING TO OUR  
NORTH. ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS  
AFTERNOON OR SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH SNOWFALL KEEPING TEMPERATURES  
COOLER. THUS, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW  
30S. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY STAY BELOW FREEZING, SNOW SHOULD  
START TO MELT IN THE SUNLIGHT TOMORROW, WHICH WILL REFREEZE ONCE THE  
SUN GOES DOWN AND TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS, HOWEVER A COLD  
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOT EXPECTED AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT  
AND THEREFORE APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL TO  
ADVISORY CRITERIA.  
 
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY HAS DECREASED, AS MODELS  
HAVE KEPT MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE EAST. EACH MODEL RUN HAS DECREASED  
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES, SO POPS  
WERE CAPPED BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE, MEANING ANY PRECIPITATION IS NOT  
LIKELY AT THIS TIME. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND  
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD  
BE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
AS OF 1240 PM TUESDAY...  
 
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME. THE MEAN, POSITIVELY  
TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH BRIEFLY GIVES WAY TO FLATTER ZONAL FLOW  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN USA AND HIGH MIGRATING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.  
THIS WILL PROVIDE A WELCOME OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES  
WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS BY SUN/MON. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW IS  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US WITH SPLIT FLOW  
EVOLVING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THE NEXT CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A NORTHERN STREAM  
WAVE IS FORECAST DIVE INTO THE MIDWEST, WHICH RESULTS IN A WAVE OF  
LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION BREAKING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.  
LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE BEST TIMING FOR PRECIP ACROSS NC WILL  
BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH A RELATIVELY LIGHT EVENT THAT  
SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID GIVEN THE LACK OF A PARENT HIGH AND COLD  
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH. THAT SAID THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL STILL  
BE JUST TO THE NORTH AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT  
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR PTYPES. THERE'S STILL ENOUGH MODEL  
DISCREPANCY TO WARRANT JUST CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
AS OF 645 PM TUESDAY...  
 
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC BETWEEN  
00Z AND 03Z. ALL 5 TAF SITES SHOULD SEE SOME DEGREE OF AVIATION  
IMPACTS, PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF REDUCED VSBYS.  
 
INT AND GSO: LIKELY TO BE ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW. THE  
LIGHT SNOW MAY REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT  
SHOULD BE OVER BY 03Z. VSBYS RECOVER TO VFR BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH  
SKIES CLEARING OUT ENTIRELY BEFORE DAYBREAK.  
 
RDU: EXPECT LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH A FEW HOURS OF IFR SNOW BETWEEN 00Z  
AND 05Z. THIS SHOULD ALSO WRAP UP QUICKLY WITH DRY WEATHER AND VFR  
CONDITIONS RETURNING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH CLEAR SKIES BY  
DAYBREAK.  
 
FAY/RWI: LIKELY TO SEE THE LONGEST DURATION OF SNOW WITH THE LOWEST  
VSBYS AND CEILINGS. SNOW ARRIVING BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z, HEAVIEST FROM  
003 TO 06Z, TAPERING OFF AROUND 08Z, CLEARING OUT ENTIRELY AFTER  
14Z.  
 
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
OUTLOOK: VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WED MORNING. A VERY WEAK SYSTEM  
IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION THU INTO SAT, BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY  
SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS IN WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW AT THE  
MOMENT.  
 
 
   
CLIMATE  
 
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:  
 
JANUARY 22:  
KGSO: 29/2014  
KRDU: 27/1970  
 
JANUARY 23:  
KGSO: 28/1954  
KFAY: 30/1970  
 
RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:  
 
JANUARY 23:  
KRDU: 8/1977  
KFAY: 9/1970  
 
 
   
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR  
NCZ007>011-021>027-038>042-073>077-083-084.  
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR  
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.  
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ028-043-  
078-085-086-088-089.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT  
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SWIGGETT  
SHORT TERM...HELOCK  
LONG TERM...BLS  
AVIATION...LEINS/BADGETT  
CLIMATE...RAH  
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