354
FXUS62 KRAH 160647
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
147 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 915 PM SATURDAY...
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERING
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING. AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ALONG THE US1 CORRIDOR A BREAK IN THE RAIN WILL COME LATER THIS
EVENING BEFORE SHOWERS REDEVELOP SCATTERED ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT
A HEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS TRACK AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES IN THE
TRIAD ARE IN THE UPPER 30S LOW 40S AS OF 02Z, WHILE AREAS IN THE
EASTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN ARE IN THE 60S. BY
SUNRISE, THE TRIAD IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S LOW 50S, AND
EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE CWA WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
AS OF 344 PM SATURDAY...THE FORMERLY COASTAL FRONT HAS LARGELY
STALLED ALONG A PATH EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY KRCZ NORTHEAST THROUGH
KETC THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY MAY MIGRATE A BIT FURTHER
NORTHWEST, BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. IT WILL HOWEVER LIFT NORTH INTO VA AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS MIRRORING TODAY'S HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S (NW) TO
AROUND 60 (SE).
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
SOME MOSTLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP MAINLY FROM
RALEIGH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. WAA-DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL RESULT,
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES EAST OF US-1. AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE SUNDAY,
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME TORNADIC PARAMETERS STARTING TO
INCREASE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS (E.G. STP, SUPERCELL
COMPOSITE) BEFORE PEAKING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME PRE-
DAWN SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOW SOME INDICATIONS OF ROTATION.
HOWEVER, ANY WEAK INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS AT THAT TIME WOULD BE
MOSTLY ELEVATED, AND AS SUCH, ANY ROTATION WOULD LIKELY BE WELL
ABOVE THE SFC. STILL, ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
SIGNAL FOR ROTATING CELLS IN THESE AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
GUSTY SLY FLOW WILL LARGELY REMAIN TAME THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT,
HOWEVER, WE COULD START TO SEE AN UPTICK IN GUSTS NEAR SUNRISE
SUNDAY (THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD HAPPEN AFTER 12Z HOWEVER).
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
* HIGH WIND WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NE CWA, FROM THE TRIANGLE N AND
E, WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL NC, BOTH 6AM-4PM
SUN. STRONGER DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION.
SUN: BACKGROUND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
OVER 45 MPH EXPECTED AREAWIDE AS INTENSE WINDS JUST ALOFT MIX
GROUNDWARD. STILL EXPECT A BROAD, SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
EMBEDDED STORMS TO CROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND ATTENDING UPPER TROUGH. AS HAS
BEEN NOTED FOR SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES, MUCAPE SHOULD BE RATHER
SMALL, MOSTLY UNDER 100 J/KG. BUT VIGOROUS KINEMATICS WILL BE IN
PLACE, INCLUDING 50-75 KTS AT 925-850 MB, RESULTING IN A VERY LONG
AND GENTLY CURVED HODOGRAPH. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MIX
GROUNDWARD, ESPECIALLY WITH THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION AS IT BECOMES
SURFACE-BASED, A LIKELY BET ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA, ESP
E, WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 60F. THE LATEST
HREF HAS MEAN SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25-35 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS,
HIGHEST 10AM-1PM, CONCURRENT WITH THE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF 50+ MPH
GUSTS, GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS. ACROSS THE NE CWA,
WHERE ENSEMBLE HIGH-RES OUTPUT SHOWS AN 80-100% CHANCE OF 55+ MPH
GUSTS ROUGHLY FROM 10A-1P, WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING, ALTHOUGH
OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME WINDOW, WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER, BETTER
COVERAGE E OF I-95, WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT, ALTHOUGH THESE ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN THE ABSENCE OF LIGHTNING WITHIN BOWING SEGMENTS. AN ISOLATED QLCS
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESP IF ANY OF THIS SMALL CAPE CAN BE
TAPPED TO BOOST UPDRAFTS AND TILT/STRETCH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY. AS FAR AS TIMING, WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA AND MOVING OFF THE NC COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON, EXPECT THE BAND
OF HIGH POPS TO MOVE INTO THE FAR W AT 6AM AND MARCH EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, LIKELY PUSHING E OF THE COASTAL PLAIN/E
SANDHILLS BY 3PM AS PARTIAL CLEARING BEGINS IN THE W. EXPECT HIGHS
FROM AROUND 60/LOW 60S NW TO AROUND 70/LOW 70S SE.
SUN NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL TO OUR SE AS A STRONG/COLD
HIGH STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WNW. EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
EVENING CLOUDS IN THE SW ALONG A WEAK TRAILING POST-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND PATCHY STRATOCU POTENTIALLY SPILLING INTO THE TRIAD OVERNIGHT,
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL HAVE DECREASED BUT IT
SHOULD STAY RATHER BRISK THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT,
UNTIL THE MSLP GRADIENT BEGINS TO LOOSEN. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE WITH LOW LEVEL NW FLOW. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S.
MON/MON NIGHT: QUIET WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MON, FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING CLOUDS MON NIGHT. THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER
SASKATCHEWAN WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE DAKOTAS WHILE EXTENDING SE
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS, RESULTING IN DIMINISHING SURFACE WINDS AND
BELOW NORMAL THICKNESSES, ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN
BOTTLED UP N OF THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN
FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT, BUT SKIES SHOULD BE
NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20S. -GIH
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 400 PM SATURDAY...
ANOTHER DRY AND COOL DAY IS IN STORE ON TUESDAY WITH A DEEP CUTOFF
LOW MOVING EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ELONGATED MID/UPPER
TROUGHING EXTENDING TO ITS WEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. MEANWHILE
A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN US. AT THE
SURFACE, A STRONG 1050 MB+ ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES THAT ENVELOPES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. THE AIR
MASS WILL MODIFY A BIT ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER-40S
NE TO LOWER-TO-MID-50S ELSEWHERE.
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SPAWNING A
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH
DEEPENS AND MOVES NE ALONG OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. WITH
A COLD DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND A FAVORABLE
SURFACE LOW TRACK WITH A "MILLER A" SETUP, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
IN A WINTER STORM ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF CENTRAL NC FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF, GFS AND CANADIAN AS WELL
AS NEARLY ALL OF THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER PREVIOUS GUIDANCE APPEARED TO BE
TRENDING TEMPS WARMER ALOFT AND MORE OF AN ICE THREAT INSTEAD OF
SNOW, THE 12Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES TRENDED TOWARD A FASTER
DEEPENING LOW THAT TRACKS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD RESULT
IN A COLDER SOLUTION AND MORE SNOW AND ICE FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
CENTRAL NC. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN THIS SCENARIO, WITH A CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IN OUR SOUTH. THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND
AN 850 MB LOW THAT TRACKS WELL TO OUR WEST, RESULTING IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT QUICKLY WARMS TEMPERATURES THERE WHILE
TEMPERATURES STAY COLD NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MUCH
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT ARE CONFINED TO NEAR THE NC/VA
BORDER, WITH A CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN, AND MOSTLY
RAIN FROM AROUND FAYETTEVILLE TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THE
CANADIAN IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS.
WHILE IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE TOO MANY DETAILS AT THIS
TIME, WE CAN SAY THAT CHANCES OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ARE
GOING UP, AS EVEN IF THERE IS A LOT OF WARMING ALOFT, TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE SURFACE LOOK COLD ON NEARLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE. OF COURSE
THIS COULD STILL CHANGE, AND ALL PRECIPITATION TYPES FROM SNOW TO
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ARE ON THE TABLE. A LOT WILL DEPEND
ON THE DEGREE OF PHASING THAT CAN OCCUR BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES, WHICH THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF COMPARED TO THE GFS. CONFIDENCE
HAS AT LEAST IMPROVED ON TIMING, WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SO POPS ARE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL DURING THAT
PERIOD, DECREASING TO MAINLY CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT ON
THURSDAY IN CASE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERS BEFORE THE LOW
EXITS TO THE NE. IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A JUICY SYSTEM WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE, AS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF IS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. STAY
TUNED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS DETAILS SHOULD BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE ULTIMATE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYSTEM, BUT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE QUITE CHILLY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S, MAYBE 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH. FORECAST LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE 20S.
THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MS
VALLEY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN THE TN VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING NW FLOW AND MUCH DRIER AIR, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD. FORECAST LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER-20S, WITH FRIDAY'S FORECAST HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER-
30S TO LOWER-40S. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO
MODIFY A BIT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 145 AM SUNDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT KFAY, KRWI AND POSSIBLY
LIFT ACROSS KRDU OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE
ELSEWHERE. THE WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS WELL, WITH SOME POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO IFR OR EVEN
MVFR (POSSIBLY BRIEFLY VFR) AT THE EASTERN SITES AFTER 09Z/10Z AND
BEFORE THE LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVES EWD ACROSS THE
AREA. PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AS OF 1 AM AND IS FAVORED AT
KINT/KGSO, BUT POSSIBLE AT THE OTHER TAF SITES, ALTHOUGH HAS NOT
REACHED ANY OF THEM YET. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NW AROUND 12Z AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 20Z,
WITH NARROW LINE OF TRAILING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 22Z.
EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE SHOWERS/STORMS. THE LLJ
IS STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM 35KTS THIS MORNING TO UPWARDS
OF 55-60 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST.
CONSEQUENTLY, LLWS WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE, BOTH IN THE WAKE OF THE NWWD LIFTING WARM FRONT AND WITH
THE LINE OF CONVECTION AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS
ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS (POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 60
KTS) POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. EXPECT CONTINUED STRONG, GUSTY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT, GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BETWEEN 22Z AND 06Z.
OUTLOOK: WINDS COULD STILL BE A BIT BREEZY THROUGH MON AFT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AND PREVAIL THROUGH TUE. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING ON A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM WED MORNING THROUGH WED
NIGHT, WHICH COULD BRING ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS IN A MIXTURE OF
FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW. VFR SHOULD RETURN THU MORNING.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ007-021>024-
038>040-073>077-083>086-088-089.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ008>011-
025>028-041>043-078.
SYNOPSIS...KC/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CA/LUCHETTI
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DANCO
AVIATION...KC/KREN
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