285
FXUS62 KRAH 160711
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
211 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 915 PM SATURDAY...
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERING
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING. AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ALONG THE US1 CORRIDOR A BREAK IN THE RAIN WILL COME LATER THIS
EVENING BEFORE SHOWERS REDEVELOP SCATTERED ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT
A HEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS TRACK AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES IN THE
TRIAD ARE IN THE UPPER 30S LOW 40S AS OF 02Z, WHILE AREAS IN THE
EASTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN ARE IN THE 60S. BY
SUNRISE, THE TRIAD IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S LOW 50S, AND
EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE CWA WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
AS OF 344 PM SATURDAY...THE FORMERLY COASTAL FRONT HAS LARGELY
STALLED ALONG A PATH EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY KRCZ NORTHEAST THROUGH
KETC THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY MAY MIGRATE A BIT FURTHER
NORTHWEST, BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. IT WILL HOWEVER LIFT NORTH INTO VA AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS MIRRORING TODAY'S HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S (NW) TO
AROUND 60 (SE).
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
SOME MOSTLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP MAINLY FROM
RALEIGH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. WAA-DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL RESULT,
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES EAST OF US-1. AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE SUNDAY,
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME TORNADIC PARAMETERS STARTING TO
INCREASE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS (E.G. STP, SUPERCELL
COMPOSITE) BEFORE PEAKING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME PRE-
DAWN SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOW SOME INDICATIONS OF ROTATION.
HOWEVER, ANY WEAK INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS AT THAT TIME WOULD BE
MOSTLY ELEVATED, AND AS SUCH, ANY ROTATION WOULD LIKELY BE WELL
ABOVE THE SFC. STILL, ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
SIGNAL FOR ROTATING CELLS IN THESE AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
GUSTY SLY FLOW WILL LARGELY REMAIN TAME THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT,
HOWEVER, WE COULD START TO SEE AN UPTICK IN GUSTS NEAR SUNRISE
SUNDAY (THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD HAPPEN AFTER 12Z HOWEVER).
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 211 AM SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY, AND REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL
BE CAUGHT UP IN THE PROLONGED FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIRMASS
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, SO
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER-MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 211 AM SUNDAY...
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE WINTER
STORM SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY THAT MAY HAVE LINGERING IMPACTS THROUGH
THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD. THE COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN DRIVING ALL OF THIS
IS A DEEPENING S/W TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST THAT WILL CLOSE OFF AND
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP LAYER ASCENT INVOF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE EASTERN JET STREAK WILL PROMPT SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WHICH WILL BECOME A MILLER-
A TYPE SFC LOW THAT MOVES FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD UP
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE ASCENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED JET
STREAK AND SFC LOW COUPLED WITH THE ANTECEDENT COLD AIRMASS OVER OUR
AREA WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIP TYPES WITH THE
USUAL DISTRIBUTION OF SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, RAIN
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, AND A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IN BETWEEN...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT'S DEFINITELY WORTH
NOTING THAT THE ECMWF IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE GFS, SO IT SUGGESTS
THAT WINTRY P-TYPES WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA, EVEN OUR FAR
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES.
WHAT'S INTERESTING ABOUT THE MODELS' EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS
THAT THERE'S GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT DIFFERENCES
IN THE QPF AND WARM NOSE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT, AND ULTIMATELY P-
TYPES AND AMOUNTS FOR THE VARIOUS PARTS OF OUR CWA. INTERESTINGLY...
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE EASTERN JET STREAK AND THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE WESTERN JET STREAK DO NOT OVERLAP...SO THE MODELS
SHOW THAT OUR AREA GETS DRY-SLOTTED PRETTY QUICKLY. YET THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN HAVE MUCH HIGHER QPF THAN THE GFS. NEEDLESS TO SAY, IF
THE WETTER AND COLDER ECMWF VERIFIES, THIS WINTER STORM SYSTEM COULD
HAVE MAJOR OR PERHAPS EVEN EXTREME IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL NC, BOTH DUE
TO SNOW ACCUM ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST ZONES AND ICE ACCUM FOR
OUR SOUTH AND EAST ZONES. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, WHILE
IMPACTFUL, WOULD RESULT IN MUCH LESS DIRE AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS FOR
CENTRAL NC. THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE, SO
STAY TUNED!
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NOW LOOK TO BE DRY WITH WELL BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS
AS THE NEXT COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY ON SATURDAY, BUT
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW AND DEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 145 AM SUNDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT KFAY, KRWI AND POSSIBLY
LIFT ACROSS KRDU OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE
ELSEWHERE. THE WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS WELL, WITH SOME POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO IFR OR EVEN
MVFR (POSSIBLY BRIEFLY VFR) AT THE EASTERN SITES AFTER 09Z/10Z AND
BEFORE THE LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVES EWD ACROSS THE
AREA. PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AS OF 1 AM AND IS FAVORED AT
KINT/KGSO, BUT POSSIBLE AT THE OTHER TAF SITES, ALTHOUGH HAS NOT
REACHED ANY OF THEM YET. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NW AROUND 12Z AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 20Z,
WITH NARROW LINE OF TRAILING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 22Z.
EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE SHOWERS/STORMS. THE LLJ
IS STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM 35KTS THIS MORNING TO UPWARDS
OF 55-60 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST.
CONSEQUENTLY, LLWS WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE, BOTH IN THE WAKE OF THE NWWD LIFTING WARM FRONT AND WITH
THE LINE OF CONVECTION AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS
ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS (POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 60
KTS) POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. EXPECT CONTINUED STRONG, GUSTY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT, GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BETWEEN 22Z AND 06Z.
OUTLOOK: WINDS COULD STILL BE A BIT BREEZY THROUGH MON AFT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AND PREVAIL THROUGH TUE. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING ON A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM WED MORNING THROUGH WED
NIGHT, WHICH COULD BRING ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS IN A MIXTURE OF
FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW. VFR SHOULD RETURN THU MORNING.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ007-021>024-
038>040-073>077-083>086-088-089.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ008>011-
025>028-041>043-078.
SYNOPSIS...KC/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CA/LUCHETTI
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...KC/KREN
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