406
FXUS62 KRAH 162010
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
309 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OUR NEXT
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT,
AND MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 125 PM SUNDAY...
* WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC UNTIL 4 PM
THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE LINE HAS MOVED WELL TO OUR E, ALTHOUGH PATCHY
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WHICH IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED JUST W OF
THE CWA. BLUSTERY AND GUSTY WINDS PERSIST OVER THE AREA, FACILITATED
BY 925 MB FLOW THAT IS VEERING AND SLOWLY DECREASING BUT STILL QUITE
ROBUST AT 35-50 KTS, AND GOES DERIVED MEAN WINDS ARE STILL SHOWING
900-770 MB WINDS FROM THE WSW OR W AT 35-50 KTS COMING INTO OUR W
CWA. PARTIAL CLEARING AND A PERIOD OF INSOLATION NEAR AND JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT IS RESULTING IN A BRIEF STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, CORROBORATED BY RECENT RAP SOUNDINGS, AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A CONTINUED RISK OF STRONG WIND GUSTS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
AS THESE WINDS JUST ALOFT MIX GROUNDWARD. WE MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 35-40 MPH THROUGH EARLY EVENING, BUT OVERALL THE THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL BE DIMINISHING TOWARD
SUNSET, SO CURRENT PLANS ARE TO LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE. THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
SWINGING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH BASE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING, THUS EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM W TO E BY MID EVENING
AS LOWER DEWPOINTS SPREAD INTO THE AREA WITHIN A WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW,
ALTHOUGH THE STEADY STIRRING OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
TOO FAR. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. -GIH
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 309 PM SUNDAY...
MON/MON NIGHT: BROAD, FAST ZONAL STEERING FLOW WILL PERSIST, AS VAST
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN SPREADS SE INTO NC.
DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL KEEP SKIES FAIR TO
MOSTLY SUNNY MON, ALTHOUGH BY MON NIGHT WELL START TO SEE HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE WYOMING BASIN/N ROCKIES AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, ESP ACROSS OUR N, AND SKIES HERE SHOULD TREND TO PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE AROUND 35 M BELOW NORMAL, THUS
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S, FOLLOWED BY
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. -GIH
TUE/TUE NIGHT: THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY WILL START OFF ZONAL
BEFORE A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
EVENING. A STRONG HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND COOL NELY
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGH CLOUDS AND CHILLY TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IS EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT. ANY PRECIPITAION SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER TO MID 30S IS
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 211 AM SUNDAY...
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE WINTER
STORM SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY THAT MAY HAVE LINGERING IMPACTS THROUGH
THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD. THE COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN DRIVING ALL OF THIS
IS A DEEPENING S/W TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST THAT WILL CLOSE OFF AND
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP LAYER ASCENT INVOF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE EASTERN JET STREAK WILL PROMPT SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WHICH WILL BECOME A MILLER-
A TYPE SFC LOW THAT MOVES FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD UP
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE ASCENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED JET
STREAK AND SFC LOW COUPLED WITH THE ANTECEDENT COLD AIRMASS OVER OUR
AREA WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIP TYPES WITH THE
USUAL DISTRIBUTION OF SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, RAIN
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, AND A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IN BETWEEN...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT'S DEFINITELY WORTH
NOTING THAT THE ECMWF IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE GFS, SO IT SUGGESTS
THAT WINTRY P-TYPES WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA, EVEN OUR FAR
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES.
WHAT'S INTERESTING ABOUT THE MODELS' EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS
THAT THERE'S GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT DIFFERENCES
IN THE QPF AND WARM NOSE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT, AND ULTIMATELY P-
TYPES AND AMOUNTS FOR THE VARIOUS PARTS OF OUR CWA. INTERESTINGLY...
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE EASTERN JET STREAK AND THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE WESTERN JET STREAK DO NOT OVERLAP...SO THE MODELS
SHOW THAT OUR AREA GETS DRY-SLOTTED PRETTY QUICKLY. YET THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN HAVE MUCH HIGHER QPF THAN THE GFS. NEEDLESS TO SAY, IF
THE WETTER AND COLDER ECMWF VERIFIES, THIS WINTER STORM SYSTEM COULD
HAVE MAJOR OR PERHAPS EVEN EXTREME IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL NC, BOTH DUE
TO SNOW ACCUM ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST ZONES AND ICE ACCUM FOR
OUR SOUTH AND EAST ZONES. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, WHILE
IMPACTFUL, WOULD RESULT IN MUCH LESS DIRE AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS FOR
CENTRAL NC. THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE, SO
STAY TUNED!
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NOW LOOK TO BE DRY WITH WELL BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS
AS THE NEXT COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY ON SATURDAY, BUT
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW AND DEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1250 PM SUNDAY...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS REMAINS THE STRONG
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS, FROM THE SW SHIFTING TO WNW, ALONG WITH A FEW
MORE HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY AT EASTERN
TERMINALS, WITH 2KFT WINDS FROM THE SW AT 45-60 KTS. CROSSWINDS MAY
REMAIN AN ISSUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT RUNWAYS RUNNING NW TO SE.
THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL EXIT TO THE E OF THE AREA BY 00Z, AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN FROM 21Z TO 06Z, WITH GUSTS
EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY DIMINISHED BY 06Z-08Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON AT 8-14 KTS. STEADY SHOWERS
PERSIST AT THIS HOUR IN THE EXTREME E (RWI) WITH MORE PATCHY SHOWERS
OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL NC; THESE SHOWERS WILL END FOR GOOD FROM W
TO E 20Z-00Z AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS, INCLUDING AT AND NEAR INT/GSO/RDU, WILL YIELD TO CLEARING
SKIES, AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AFTER 00Z.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z MON, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS IN FROM THE NW. STARTING LATE TUE
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY THU, A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING HIGH
CHANCES FOR SUB-IFR CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER TO
MUCH OF CENTRAL NC, INCLUDING A RISK FOR ICE AND SNOW. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THU AND FRI, ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS
FROM THE NW ARE LIKELY THU. -GIH
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/LUCHETTI
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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