540
FXUS62 KRAH 171735
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1235 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND MIGRATE FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC, WHILE WEAKENING AND
MODIFYING, THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WERE SLIGHTLY LOWERED, LEAVING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. CURRENT GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 317 AM MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL CAA THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS AFTERNOON WITH LESS WIND. EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S NORTH
RANGING INTO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING,
THEN SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A VERY COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S NORTH TO SOUTH. INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND COLD TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S NE TO LOWER 30S SW.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR NEW ORLEANS AS OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING, MOVE OVER FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. OVERALL, PERHAPS THE GREATEST CHANGE WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE
IS THAT LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE COME DOWN FROM THE 12Z
GUIDANCE. THIS IS LIKELY RELATED TO THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE
SURFACE LOW 5-10 MB WEAKER THAN THE 12Z RUN, ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS
DOES NOT SHOW MUCH DIFFERENCE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW COMPARED
TO THE 18Z RUN. THE OFFICIAL QPF IS ABOUT HALF AS MUCH IN THE TRIAD
AS BEFORE, WITH A SMALLER REDUCTION FARTHER TO THE EAST.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE.
ALL PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, ONE PRIMARY CHANGE
IS THAT THE WARM NOSE APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LARGER AREA
OF SLEET ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-64 TO THE WEST OF I-40 ON WEDNESDAY.
THE OTHER PRIMARY CHANGE IS THAT THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IS
STILL INITIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-64 WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THEN
THAT AREA GREATLY EXPANDS TO THE SOUTH AND NORTHEAST IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODEL TREND WAS TO BRING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, WHICH EXPANDS THE AREA THAT COULD
RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN INSTEAD OF LIQUID RAIN. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH PERHAPS A STRAY
FLURRY POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
THE OFFICIAL SNOW/ICE FORECASTS NOW GO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, AND
SHOULD COVER ALL ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION. THE SPECIFICS OF THOSE
TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY IN REGARD TO
PRECIPITATION TYPE, BUT IT APPEARS THAT EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES, ALL AREAS ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE
COINCIDENT WITH THE HIGHEST QPF. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT NEARLY ALL
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TRIAD AND NORTHERN PERSON/VANCE COUNTIES
WHERE NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST, AND THE HIGHEST ICE TOTALS
ARE CURRENTLY IN JOHNSTON/WILSON/WAYNE COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA FOR EITHER
SNOW OR ICE, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THOSE VALUES DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPES, AND A WINTER STORM WATCH
WILL NOT BE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...
THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MS
VALLEY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN THE TN VALLEY ON SATURDAY
AND THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A VERY COLD AND DRY
AIR MASS WHICH GRADUALLY MODIFIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES, JUST HOW COLD IT GETS, WILL NOT BE DETERMINED UNTIL
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE WINTER STORM IS OVER. WE WILL KEEP THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
FRIDAY'S FORECAST HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, THEN
40S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM MONDAY...
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GUST UP TO 20 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT,
POTENTIALLY COMPLETELY CALM IN SOME LOCATIONS. A FEW UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, BEFORE THICKENING NEAR
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: TUESDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VFR. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A POTENTIAL WINTRY EVENT IS LIKELY
TO IMPACT THE REGION. WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALL PRECIPITATION TYPES
(SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND RAIN) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
CWA. WE SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...HELOCK/BADGETT
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HELOCK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page