444
FXUS62 KRAH 180731
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
229 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTS LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND
MIGRATE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 229 AM TUESDAY...
A GREAT DAY TO PREPARE FOR THE WINTER STORM WEDNESDAY, THEN BITTER
COLD THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS
FROM 48 TO 54 NORTH TO SOUTH. TONIGHT, INCREASING CLOUDINESS. LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING NE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 PM MONDAY...
* A WINTER WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC.
* THE MOST HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A RESURGENCE OF COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL EAST OF THE NORTHERN
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FROM THE PARENT HIGH OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TUES INTO EARLY WED AND WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR OUR WINTER EVENT. HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT AND VERY LOW DEW POINTS (TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS) IN ITS WAKE
PENETRATE INTO CENTRAL NC WED MORNING WILL BE VITAL GIVEN THE LACK
OF A FAVORABLE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF A PARENT HIGH TO OUR NORTH.
FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION PERSPECTIVE, THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE DRIVEN BY INITIALLY A FLAT MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH
DOMINANT LIFT COMING FROM JET DYNAMICS IN A FAVORABLE RIGHT-ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 140-160 KT 250MB JET AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WAA AT
850MB. AN INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP WED MORNING OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TRACK ENE IN A MILLER A
CYCLOGENESIS PATTERN AND PHASE WITH A SHARPENING INVERTED TROUGH OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THURS MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL MOST
LIKELY RESULT IN BROAD TRANSITION ZONES OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
BETWEEN SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND RAIN WED MORNING. THIS
TRANSITION ZONE WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY, STALL
SOMEWHERE OVER THE PIEDMONT, AND THEN COLLAPSE BACK SOUTH AND
EAST WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS AS THE SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE DEEPENS.
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST HAVE A SUBTLE SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH IN
THIS TRANSITION ZONE GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER SURFACE LOW AND
COLDER AIR FARTHER SOUTH IN NC. OVERALL THE MAGNITUDES OF SNOW AND
ICE ACCUMULATION HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY THE SAME (1 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION, GREATEST TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. ICE ACCUMULATION
RANGE FROM A TENTH UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH). THESE AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE
WHERE THE GREATEST ICE ACCUMULATION OCCURS.
THE EVENTUAL SCENARIO THAT UNFOLDS WILL BE VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO MINOR
CHANGES IN THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE PATTERN AND TIMEFRAME
BETWEEN NOW AND WED MORNING, SO EXPECT CONTINUED TWEAKS TO THE
FORECAST AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WED WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY WED MORNING AHEAD
OF PRECIPITATION MOVING IN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROPPING AS THE
OVERALL THERMO-PROFILE SATURATES TOWARDS THE WETBULB TEMPERATURE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 20S WITH NEAR TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 229 AM TUESDAY...
VERY COLD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, MODERATING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
WE MAY REACH COLD ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 12 DEGREES COURTESY OF THE COLD ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S SOUTH. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S NORTH TO SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT 12-22.
SATURDAY HIGHS WILL MODERATE WITH CONTINUED MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
40S. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
SUNDAY, AND HIGHS BY MONDAY INTO THE 50S. DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A
POTENTIAL WINTRY EVENT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REGION. WITH THIS
SYSTEM, ALL PRECIPITATION TYPES (SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND
RAIN) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE CWA, WITH SNOW FAVORED AT
INT/GSO/RDU/RWI, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SLEET. SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
MORE LIKELY AT FAY. WE SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-075>078-085-086-088-089.
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...KREN
AVIATION...BADGETT
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