726
FXUS62 KRAH 191851
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
151 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS AND JUST OFFSHORE THE GULF AND
SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW AND MIGRATE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC, WHILE WEAKENING AND MODIFYING, THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1125 AM WEDNESDAY...
* NEW THIS MORNING: SAMPSON, WAKE AND JOHNSTON COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
UPGRADED TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING.
* WINTER STORM WARNING AND ADVISORY HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO 1 PM
THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING.
* SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION CHANGES: INCREASED ICE ACCUMULATION IN THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WITH MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE SNOW AMOUNTS.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TELL THE STORY THIS
MORNING. PREDOMINANTLY UPPER-LEVEL DRIVEN RADAR RETURNS OVER
THE TRIAD HAVE THUS FAR STRUGGLED TO REACH THE GROUND WITH 5 TO
8 THOUSAND FEET IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
CONVERSELY, STRENGTHENING WAA AT 925 AND 850 FROM THE SANDHILLS
INTO THE TRIANGLE AND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN HAS BLOSSOMED
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET AS THE UPPER
FORCING BEGINS TO SPREAD EASTWARD. OVERALL INTENSITY HAS
REMAINED LIGHT THUS FAR WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS MOSTLY +3
MILES AND MAINLY SMALL FLAKES OBSERVED AT THE NWS RALEIGH
OFFICE.
THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGINNING TO BROADEN
A WIDE MIXED P-TYPE ZONE. AT THIS TIME (AFTER 1 PM) WILL LIKELY BE
WHEN THE GREATEST IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL OCCUR, SO BE SURE TO BE AT
YOUR DESTINATION BY THIS TIME IF LOCATED IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING
AREAS. THIS DEGRADATION OF CONDITIONS IS DUE TO THE WAA ALOFT
EXPECTED TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN AND PRECIPITATION RATES WILL INCREASE
AND LIFT THE TRANSITION ZONE NORTHWARD. HOW FAR NORTH THIS LIFTS IS
STILL UNCERTAIN BUT WILL BE INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT AS HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A BANDING OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE AN AREA
OF MAXIMIZED RATES AND LIKELY A NARROW SWATH OF HIGHER TOTALS. WPC
SNOW BAND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS BAND MAY STRETCH WESTWARD TO
AS FAR AS WAKE AND JOHNSTON COUNTY AND A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO
THEIR UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. INCREASED RATES AND
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 8 PM TO
MIDNIGHT BEFORE DRYING AIR ALOFT WILL SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASE
PRECIPITATION RATES, BUT CONTINUING COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY RESULT IN SLICK ELEVATED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IN ADDITION TO LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE.
THE APPROACHING STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS THURS MORNING
WITH GREATEST CHANCES TOWARDS THE NC/VA BORDER. OVERALL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, BUT A VERY COLD GROUND, DEEP
SATURATION IN THE DGZ, AND HIGH SNOW RATIOS CAN RESULT IN
EFFICIENT AND QUICK ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH IN SPOTS, BUT
MOSTLY A DUSTING IS EXPECTED. AS THIS AREA MOVES EAST AND
DOWNSLOPING DRYING TAKES OVER BEHIND A COLD FRONT, STRONG WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH INFREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE. SOME GUSTINESS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO CONTINUED
CAA, BUT MAY BE MORE INFREQUENT AND LOWER THAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE 20S WITH
HIGHS ON THURS IN THE 30S. INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO MELT SOME SNOW/ICE BEFORE SUNSET.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 150 PM WEDNESDAY...
* VERY COLD CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
* LOWEST WIND CHILL VALUES ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6
AND 12 DEGREES.
ALOFT, THE LOW ALONG THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST THU EVE WILL MOVE
ENEWD OUT OVER THE NRN ATLANTIC THU NIGHT/FRI, WHILE THE TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE REGION. WNWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE INTO CENTRAL NC AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST THU NIGHT/FRI. THE HIGH MAY SPLIT IN TWO FRI NIGHT, WITH
ONCE CENTER LINGERING OVER THE MIDWEST AND THE OTHER MOVING EWD INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY STILL EXPECTED TO BE INFLUENCED BY ANY
LINGERING SNOW/ICE ON THE GROUND, ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC WHERE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE
EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 40S FRI.
THU NIGHT: SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR, HOWEVER WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 3-8 KT RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES IN THE
1255-1265M RANGE ARE EXPECTED. THE CONTINUED STIRRING MAY SLIGHTLY
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT WITH THE FORECAST THICKNESSES AND
CLEAR SKIES EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF
GENERALLY 6-12 DEGREES.
FRI NIGHT: THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 1280M-
1290M RANGE, HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH NOW OVERHEAD, WINDS SHOULD BE
CALM. THE QUESTION FOR FRI NIGHT WILL BE IF/HOW EXPANSIVE SOME CLOUD
COVER MAY BE, WHICH WOULD IMPACT HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR. FOR NOW, EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...
NWP GUIDANCE NOTES THAT A MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM THE TN VALLEY ON SATURDAY MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE HAS LIMITED MOISTURE BUT SOME
GUIDANCE NOTES THAT A SURFACE REFLECTION MAY DEVELOP NEAR AND JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. OUR FORECAST INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BUT GIVEN
MOST OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS OFF THE COAST AND JUST ABOUT
EVERY MEMBER OF THE LATEST GFE AND EC ENSEMBLES NOTE NO
PRECIPITATION, WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. A GENERALLY FAIR AND
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO LATE
MONDAY. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERLY FLOW TO APPROACH OR MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR LATE
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALL OF THE PLACE WITH
HOW THIS WILL SHAKE OUT BUT A HANDFUL OF GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S TO NEAR 50 ON SATURDAY MODERATING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
ON SUNDAY AND THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON TUESDAY. -BLAES
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS HAVE GONE MVFR, WITH IFR
VSBYS AT ALL BUT KFAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE
AT LEAST 12Z, WITH PRIMARILY SNOW AT KINT/KGSO, A MIX OF SNOW AND
SLEET AT KRDU/KRWI, AND RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AT KFAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL
PROBABLY REDEVELOP AND MAINTAIN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A VIGOROUS MID/UPR-LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THU. ALTHOUGH
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY STEADY OVERNIGHT,
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION MAY TAPER TO FLURRIES OR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE, OR TAPER OFF COMPLETELY FOR A
FEW HOURS OR SO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THU, BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED
REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW THU MORN. CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO
VFR FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR THU AFT, PREVAILING THROUGH AT LEAST
SUN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG/GUSTY THU AFT, THEN ABATE THU
EVE/NIGHT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
026>028-041>043-078-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ021>025-
038>040-073>077-083>086-088.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...SWIGGETT
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...KC
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