049
FXUS62 KRAH 192344
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
644 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS AND JUST OFFSHORE THE GULF AND
SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW AND MIGRATE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC, WHILE WEAKENING AND MODIFYING, THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
* WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM
THURSDAY.
* GREATEST THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL BE FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 8 PM TO 10 PM TONIGHT.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WELL ADVERTISED MIXED P-TYPE WINTRY
EVENT IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
NC. KRAX DUAL POLARIZATION DATA SHOWS THE FROZEN/LIQUID LINE
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS, THROUGH HARNETT COUNTY, INTO
SOUTHERN JOHNSTON, AND NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY. PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS A BETTER OVERLAP OF
WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH 8 TO 10 PM.
FREEZING RAIN: SOUTH OF THIS DELINEATING LINE, SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA
SHOWS THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN. DIURNAL
TIMING IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT ICE ACCRUAL, BUT
ICE IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ICE ACCRUAL WILL BECOME MORE
EFFICIENT AFTER SUNSET AND THROUGH ROUGHLY 8 PM TO 10 PM ACROSS THIS
AREA AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH TO UP TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH, HIGHEST IN WAYNE AND SAMPSON COUNTIES. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN AFTER 8 PM, BUT POINT
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A RELATIVELY DEEP SATURATED LAYER AND INFERRED
WAA THROUGHOUT, SO LINGERING LIGHT DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SNOW AND SLEET: ACCOMPANYING THE INCREASED WAA WILL BE WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND RESULT IN A SWATH OF MOSTLY SLEET WINTRY MIX
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM CHARLOTTE, THROUGH THE TRIANGLE
AND INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, MAINLY NORTH OF THE SNOW/LIQUID
LINE DESCRIBED ABOVE. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THIS AREA AND WAS A LARGE CONTRIBUTOR TO THE UPGRADE TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RALEIGH AND WAYNE COUNTIES EARLIER THIS
MORNING. WE COULD SEE SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF A COUPLE TENTHS TO
UPWARDS OF OVER 0.5". ADDITIONALLY, WPC SNOWBAND PROBABILITY TOOL
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF EFFICIENT SNOW/SLEET RATES THAT
MAY LEAD TO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TOTALS AND LOCALIZED
GREATER IMPACTS. ADDITIONAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS 1 TO 4 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY FROM RALEIGH NORTH AND EAST INTO NORTHEASTERN
NC.
THE MAIN SHIELD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD
LATE TONIGHT WITH AN OVERALL LULL IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH
LINGERING DRIZZLE/FREEZING-DRIZZLE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING. SOME TRIMMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY
BE ABLE TO BE DONE OVERNIGHT TO BETTER CAPTURE THE THREAT INTO THURS
MORNING. AN APPROACHING STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS THURS MORNING
WITH GREATEST CHANCES TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT INTO THE
TRIANGLE AND TOWARDS THE NC/VA BORDER. OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINOR, BUT A VERY COLD GROUND, DEEP SATURATION IN THE DGZ,
AND HIGH SNOW RATIOS CAN RESULT IN EFFICIENT AND QUICK ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO AN INCH IN SPOTS, BUT MOSTLY A DUSTING IS EXPECTED. AS THIS
AREA MOVES EAST AND DOWNSLOPING DRYING TAKES OVER BEHIND A COLD
FRONT, STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH INFREQUENT GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH POSSIBLE. SOME GUSTINESS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO
CONTINUED CAA, BUT MAY BE MORE INFREQUENT AND LOWER THAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON
THURS IN THE 30S. INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL
HELP TO MELT SOME SNOW/ICE BEFORE SUNSET.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 150 PM WEDNESDAY...
* VERY COLD CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
* LOWEST WIND CHILL VALUES ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6
AND 12 DEGREES.
ALOFT, THE LOW ALONG THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST THU EVE WILL MOVE
ENEWD OUT OVER THE NRN ATLANTIC THU NIGHT/FRI, WHILE THE TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE REGION. WNWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE INTO CENTRAL NC AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST THU NIGHT/FRI. THE HIGH MAY SPLIT IN TWO FRI NIGHT, WITH
ONCE CENTER LINGERING OVER THE MIDWEST AND THE OTHER MOVING EWD INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY STILL EXPECTED TO BE INFLUENCED BY ANY
LINGERING SNOW/ICE ON THE GROUND, ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC WHERE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE
EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 40S FRI.
THU NIGHT: SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR, HOWEVER WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 3-8 KT RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES IN THE
1255-1265M RANGE ARE EXPECTED. THE CONTINUED STIRRING MAY SLIGHTLY
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT WITH THE FORECAST THICKNESSES AND
CLEAR SKIES EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF
GENERALLY 6-12 DEGREES.
FRI NIGHT: THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 1280M-
1290M RANGE, HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH NOW OVERHEAD, WINDS SHOULD BE
CALM. THE QUESTION FOR FRI NIGHT WILL BE IF/HOW EXPANSIVE SOME CLOUD
COVER MAY BE, WHICH WOULD IMPACT HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR. FOR NOW, EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...
MEAN, BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES FORECAST
TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE FIRST ON SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE VERY
SHALLOW AND MOISTURE STARVED. ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY A CUT OFF
LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US MAY PHASE WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE AND SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, BUT A MAJORITY OF
DETERMINISTIC RUNS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIRECT THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS, SO THE FORECAST REMAIN DRY. THIS
DOES, HOWEVER, APPEAR TO BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY BASED ON FORCING
AND TRACK OF THEM SYSTEM. AND THEN FINALLY ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE MAY CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE WITH THAT TRAJECTORY IS LOW AND
NO POPS WILL BE INTRODUCED. IT IS NOT UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK
THAT MODELS CONVERGE ON A MORE PROBABLY STORM TRACK WITH PRECIP
IMPLICATION.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND HIGHS WILL
GRADUALLY REACH ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE LOWER 60S... BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 644 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW HAS LARGELY PUSHED EAST OF THE TRIAD
TERMINALS (GSO/INT), WITH PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND IT. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL SOME OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW MAY STILL BE AROUND TILL
ABOUT 02Z AT THESE TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ANY IFR SNOW. SNOW IS STILL FALLING AT RDU, BUT THE BACK EDGE SHOULD
PUSH EAST OF THIS TERMINAL AROUND 03-04Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR, ESPECIALLY ONCE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND
SLEET IS FAVORED AT RWI TILL ABOUT 05Z, WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
IFR TO MVFR. FREEZING RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT FAY WITH
IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR AFTER THE
FREEZING RAIN TAPERS OFF AT 04-05Z. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS
LOWERING TO IFR OR LIFR OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW GIVEN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PREDOMINANT MVFR STRATUS, WITH PERHAPS EVEN SOME
BRIEF VFR. SOME ISOLATED FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH
WEAK FORCING ALOFT BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAF.
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINALS THU MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO RANGE FROM IFR TO MVFR, WITH LOWEST VISIBILITIES AT
GSO/INT/RDU. VFR RETURNS AT OR BEFORE THU MIDDAY, WITH NW WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-30 KT.
OUTLOOK: GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THU NIGHT, BUT GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY EARLY FRI. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
026>028-041>043-078-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ021>025-
038>040-073>077-083>086-088.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...SWIGGETT
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...KREN
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