070
FXUS62 KRAH 200824
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING AND OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. COLD ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
MODIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY...
PRECIPITATION IS DEPARTING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW. MEANWHILE, A SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY DOMINATES
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER, AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A FINAL ROUND OF SNOW (NO
OTHER PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE EXPECTED) TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DO NOT HAVE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT RDU AND
FAYETTEVILLE, WHICH IS ABOUT WHERE THE BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
FALL APART, AND HAVE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW AROUND LEXINGTON. ALL
SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH, WIND WILL BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE, WITH SUSTAINED WIND BETWEEN 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 MPH IN ALL
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES - WHILE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THERE IS FRESH SNOW COVER
IN MANY LOCATIONS, THE WIND WILL ALLOW MIXING TO CONTINUE AND LIMIT
JUST HOW FAR THE LOWS CAN DROP. IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA (EDGECOMBE, HALIFAX, NASH, AND WILSON COUNTIES), THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE/WIND CHILL WILL DROP LOW ENOUGH TO REACH COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 150 PM WEDNESDAY...
* VERY COLD CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
* LOWEST WIND CHILL VALUES ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6
AND 12 DEGREES.
ALOFT, THE LOW ALONG THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST THU EVE WILL MOVE
ENEWD OUT OVER THE NRN ATLANTIC THU NIGHT/FRI, WHILE THE TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE REGION. WNWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE INTO CENTRAL NC AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST THU NIGHT/FRI. THE HIGH MAY SPLIT IN TWO FRI NIGHT, WITH
ONCE CENTER LINGERING OVER THE MIDWEST AND THE OTHER MOVING EWD INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY STILL EXPECTED TO BE INFLUENCED BY ANY
LINGERING SNOW/ICE ON THE GROUND, ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC WHERE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE
EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 40S FRI.
THU NIGHT: SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR, HOWEVER WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 3-8 KT RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES IN THE
1255-1265M RANGE ARE EXPECTED. THE CONTINUED STIRRING MAY SLIGHTLY
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT WITH THE FORECAST THICKNESSES AND
CLEAR SKIES EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF
GENERALLY 6-12 DEGREES.
FRI NIGHT: THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 1280M-
1290M RANGE, HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH NOW OVERHEAD, WINDS SHOULD BE
CALM. THE QUESTION FOR FRI NIGHT WILL BE IF/HOW EXPANSIVE SOME CLOUD
COVER MAY BE, WHICH WOULD IMPACT HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR. FOR NOW, EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1220 AM THURSDAY...
LARGELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS THE
INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY MODIFIES, WEAKENS, AND SHIFTS TO OUR S.
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NOAM, AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION,
BRINGING BOUTS OF CLOUDS. THE FIRST OF THESE, A PERTURBATION NOW
OVER THE PACNW, WILL DIVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSS THE
CAROLINAS SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING A SHOT OF HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS, BUT LITTLE ELSE, GIVEN THE LACK OF OPPORTUNITY TO
DRAW IN ANY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE SECOND PERTURBATION WILL MOVE
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRI NIGHT AND CROSS OUR REGION LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING, POTENTIALLY PHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE. SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS LIKE THE NAM/GFS DEVELOP A COASTAL
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOW IT DEEPENING IT AS IT HEADS NE JUST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE NBM SHOWS A NON-ZERO BUT VERY LOW (UNDER
20%) CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER OUR FAR E, CLOSE TO THE GEFS AND ENS
MEAN, WHILE THE GEPS IS ENTIRELY DRY. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY BUT
SHOW A SHOT OF THICK MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE LATE
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. LASTLY, THE NBM/LREF AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS TAKE A THIRD SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION,
EITHER CROSSING NC OR PASSING JUST TO OUR N, AND WHILE THE PWS WILL
BE CREEPING UP, THE EXPECTED SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
GREATLY LIMIT ANY INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC. WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST, BUT AGAIN WITH AN UPTICK IN CLOUDS TUE.
THIS LAST WAVE WILL DRAG A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA,
BUT THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVING IN BEHIND IT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER. OVERALL, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SAT WILL WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MON, AND BE 1-2 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL TUE/WED, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. -GIH
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...
TAF PERIOD: CEILINGS ARE PRIMARILY MVFR AND VFR AS OF THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE - GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL HAVE
MVFR CIGS, SO HAVE MAINTAINED MVFR FORECAST WITH TEMPO VFR.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS CLEARED ALL TERMINALS, BUT A FINAL BAND
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AROUND SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS STILL
LACKING IN HOW FAR EAST THIS BAND WILL SURVIVE, AND DID NOT MAKE
CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST THAT CALLS FOR IFR SNOW AT
INT/GSO/RDU, WITH MVFR SNOW AT FAY/RWI. BEHIND THE SNOW BAND, EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD 20-25 KT WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST, DECREASING TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ007>011-
026>028-041>043-078-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ021>025-
038>040-073>077-083>086-088.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR NCZ011-027-028-043.
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...GREEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page