864
FXUS62 KRAH 201123
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
620 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING AND OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. COLD ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
MODIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY...
PRECIPITATION IS DEPARTING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW. MEANWHILE, A SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY DOMINATES
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER, AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A FINAL ROUND OF SNOW (NO
OTHER PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE EXPECTED) TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DO NOT HAVE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT RDU AND
FAYETTEVILLE, WHICH IS ABOUT WHERE THE BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
FALL APART, AND HAVE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW AROUND LEXINGTON. ALL
SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH, WIND WILL BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE, WITH SUSTAINED WIND BETWEEN 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 MPH IN ALL
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES - WHILE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THERE IS FRESH SNOW COVER
IN MANY LOCATIONS, THE WIND WILL ALLOW MIXING TO CONTINUE AND LIMIT
JUST HOW FAR THE LOWS CAN DROP. IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA (EDGECOMBE, HALIFAX, NASH, AND WILSON COUNTIES), THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE/WIND CHILL WILL DROP LOW ENOUGH TO REACH COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 335 AM THURSDAY...
* VERY COLD CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM 12 TO 18 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
A FAST BUT GENERALLY DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID LEVELS AND
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COLD AND FAIR WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE
AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 1260S AND RESULT IN A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY.
ACROSS THE VA BORDER COUNTIES, THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ON
WEDNESDAY, EXPECT HIGHS TO BE TEMPERED BY THE SNOW COVER AND
MELTING WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 45 DEGREES. HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL NC
WILL RANGE 12 TO 18 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MO VALLEY AND COULD RESULT IN SOME
INCREASED MID OR HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MORNING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES WILL RANGE IN THE 1280S WHICH IS ABOUT 20M WARMER
THAN THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NIGHT THAT WONT BE AS
COLD AS TONIGHT BUT WITH A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. -BLAES
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1220 AM THURSDAY...
LARGELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS THE
INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY MODIFIES, WEAKENS, AND SHIFTS TO OUR S.
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NOAM, AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION,
BRINGING BOUTS OF CLOUDS. THE FIRST OF THESE, A PERTURBATION NOW
OVER THE PACNW, WILL DIVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSS THE
CAROLINAS SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING A SHOT OF HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS, BUT LITTLE ELSE, GIVEN THE LACK OF OPPORTUNITY TO
DRAW IN ANY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE SECOND PERTURBATION WILL MOVE
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRI NIGHT AND CROSS OUR REGION LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING, POTENTIALLY PHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE. SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS LIKE THE NAM/GFS DEVELOP A COASTAL
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOW IT DEEPENING IT AS IT HEADS NE JUST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE NBM SHOWS A NON-ZERO BUT VERY LOW (UNDER
20%) CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER OUR FAR E, CLOSE TO THE GEFS AND ENS
MEAN, WHILE THE GEPS IS ENTIRELY DRY. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY BUT
SHOW A SHOT OF THICK MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE LATE
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. LASTLY, THE NBM/LREF AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS TAKE A THIRD SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION,
EITHER CROSSING NC OR PASSING JUST TO OUR N, AND WHILE THE PWS WILL
BE CREEPING UP, THE EXPECTED SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
GREATLY LIMIT ANY INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC. WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST, BUT AGAIN WITH AN UPTICK IN CLOUDS TUE.
THIS LAST WAVE WILL DRAG A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA,
BUT THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVING IN BEHIND IT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER. OVERALL, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SAT WILL WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MON, AND BE 1-2 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL TUE/WED, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. -GIH
AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 620 AM THURSDAY...
TAF PERIOD: CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR AND VFR ACROSS THE AREA. A BAND OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES TO INT/GSO AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THE BAND WILL FALL APART
AS IT REACHES RDU, SO ONLY HAVE MVFR VISIBILITIES THERE, AND HAVE
ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW AT THE FAY/RWI TAFS. BEHIND THE
SNOW BAND, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD 20-25 KT WIND
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, DECREASING TO 10-20 KT IN THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ007>011-026>028-041>043-078-089.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ011-027-028-043.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ021>025-038>040-073>077-083>086-088.
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...GREEN
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