365
FXUS62 KRAH 201718
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1217 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MODIFY AS IT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1045 AM THURSDAY...
* A WEAKENING BAND OF SNOW WILL BRING THE LAST ROUND OF SNOW TO THE
AREA FOR THIS EVENT. SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
* A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN, SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE WIND
CHILL VALUES OF LESS THAN 10F WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A BAND OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE PIEDMONT OF NC.
ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW IS OCCURRING NOW ACROSS THE TRIANGLE, THE
INCREASED SNOW RATES FROM THE BAND THAT PROGRESSED TROUGH THE TRIAD
IS STILL BACK TOWARDS HENDERSON AND INTO DURHAM AND WILL MOVE
INTO THE TRIANGLE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO DRASTICALLY REDUCE THE
SIZE AND QUANTITY OF SNOWFLAKES AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS CENTRAL
NC. AS SUCH, MOSTLY LIGHT FLURRIES TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
ELEVATED SURFACE AND UNTREATED SURFACE WILL BE MOST LIKELY. SOME
LOCALLY INCREASED SNOW RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY STICK TO
TREATED SURFACES (ESPECIALLY BRIDGES), AND RESULT IN MINOR
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL. THESE IMPACTS WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
THESE SNOW RATES WOULD BE MOST PROBABLE.
AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA, SOME GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED TODAY AND BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA, LONGEST IN THE TRIAD AND SHORTEST
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN IF AT ALL. TRACKING THE CLEARING WILL HAVE
A LARGE IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT OF MELTING THAT CAN OCCUR TODAY AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND OR BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL
WINTER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ON ITS POTENTIAL PLACEMENT OVER CENTRAL NC.
ADDITIONALLY THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH INFREQUENT GUSTS 35 MPH. CONTINUED
GUSTINESS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS
AS CAA KEEPS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED.
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AREAWIDE. THIS WILL BE
THE COLDEST AIR IN THE AREA SINCE JAN 25TH. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN, SANDHILLS, AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT FRIDAY MORNING.
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN AREAL EXPANSION INTO THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WILL
BE ASSESSED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 335 AM THURSDAY...
* VERY COLD CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM 12 TO 18 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
A FAST BUT GENERALLY DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID LEVELS AND
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COLD AND FAIR WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE
AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 1260S AND RESULT IN A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY.
ACROSS THE VA BORDER COUNTIES, THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ON
WEDNESDAY, EXPECT HIGHS TO BE TEMPERED BY THE SNOW COVER AND
MELTING WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 45 DEGREES. HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL NC
WILL RANGE 12 TO 18 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MO VALLEY AND COULD RESULT IN SOME
INCREASED MID OR HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MORNING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES WILL RANGE IN THE 1280S WHICH IS ABOUT 20M WARMER
THAN THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NIGHT THAT WONT BE AS
COLD AS TONIGHT BUT WITH A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. -BLAES
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1220 AM THURSDAY...
LARGELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS THE
INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY MODIFIES, WEAKENS, AND SHIFTS TO OUR S.
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NOAM, AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION,
BRINGING BOUTS OF CLOUDS. THE FIRST OF THESE, A PERTURBATION NOW
OVER THE PACNW, WILL DIVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSS THE
CAROLINAS SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING A SHOT OF HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS, BUT LITTLE ELSE, GIVEN THE LACK OF OPPORTUNITY TO
DRAW IN ANY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE SECOND PERTURBATION WILL MOVE
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRI NIGHT AND CROSS OUR REGION LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING, POTENTIALLY PHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE. SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS LIKE THE NAM/GFS DEVELOP A COASTAL
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOW IT DEEPENING IT AS IT HEADS NE JUST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE NBM SHOWS A NON-ZERO BUT VERY LOW (UNDER
20%) CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER OUR FAR E, CLOSE TO THE GEFS AND ENS
MEAN, WHILE THE GEPS IS ENTIRELY DRY. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY BUT
SHOW A SHOT OF THICK MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE LATE
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. LASTLY, THE NBM/LREF AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS TAKE A THIRD SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION,
EITHER CROSSING NC OR PASSING JUST TO OUR N, AND WHILE THE PWS WILL
BE CREEPING UP, THE EXPECTED SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
GREATLY LIMIT ANY INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC. WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST, BUT AGAIN WITH AN UPTICK IN CLOUDS TUE.
THIS LAST WAVE WILL DRAG A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA,
BUT THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVING IN BEHIND IT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER. OVERALL, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SAT WILL WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MON, AND BE 1-2 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL TUE/WED, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. -GIH
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1217 PM THURSDAY...
A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO EJECT EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON. KRDU WILL
LIKELY SEE CONTINUED REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BUT
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOWBAND IS QUICKLY APPROACHING. KRWI HAS JUST
DROPPED VIA THE SNOW, AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REMAIN SUB-VFR
WITH LOW VISBYS FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL THE BAND CLEARS
TO OUR EAST. KINT/KGSO HAVE ALREADY RETURNED TO VFR, AND SUSPECT
THAT KFAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR (SANS SOME FLEETING MVFR CEILINGS
THE NEXT FEW HOURS).
ANY LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH PASSAGE OF
AN ARCTIC FRONT (WHICH HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH THE TRIAD SITES).
BEHIND THIS FRONT, EXPECT IMMEDIATE 20 TO 25 KT NWLY SFC GUSTS
(ALREADY SHOWING IN THE TRIAD). THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BEFORE SUBSIDING SOME THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
(THEY STAY UP LONGEST IN THE TRIAD).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT PROMOTING DRY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE/POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW MAY PROMOTE
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS OF
NOW, SUSPECT THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, BUT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THIS
TIME.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...SWIGGETT
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...LUCHETTI
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