822
FXUS62 KRAH 202000
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MODIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...
* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN FROM 7 PM
TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY.
* A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN, SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF SNOW HAS LOST ITS BANDED
FEATURE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE UNDERNEATH
THE MOST REFLECTIVE FEATURES. ONLY SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS, BUT
NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE BACK EDGE
OF THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS SPREADING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
THERE ARE STILL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE OVER THE
PIEDMONT, BUT ENOUGH SUNSHINE IS MAKING IT THROUGH TO
MELT/SUBLIMATE THE SNOWFALL THAT FELL EARLIER THIS MORNING.
SURFACE HEATING AND DEEPENING OF THE MIXED LAYER HAS ALLOWED
GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MPH TO DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, WHICH LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE
OVERCAST SKIES AND WHERE DEW POINTS ARE DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.
THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SUSTAINED CAA AND PRESSURE RISES WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONTINUED LIGHT STIRRING
AND BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S TO TEENS RESULT IN
WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT,
SANDHILLS, AND COASTAL PLAIN WHERE THE CRITERIA IS 10F OR LOWER
UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY MORNING.
FINALLY, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT FOR
THE AREAS FROM RALEIGH NORTH AND EAST. THIS GENERAL AREA HAD THE
GREATEST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN THE PAST 36 HOURS AND WILL LIKELY
SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME
MELTING/SUBLIMATING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOME PEEKS OF
SUN AND VERY DRY AIR BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW FREEZING WILL ALLOW ANY MELTING TO REFREEZE AFTER SUNSET.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRI MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT
MELTING/DRYING OF ROAD CONDITIONS AFTER 10 AM.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 335 AM THURSDAY...
* VERY COLD CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM 12 TO 18 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
A FAST BUT GENERALLY DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID LEVELS AND
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COLD AND FAIR WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE
AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 1260S AND RESULT IN A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY.
ACROSS THE VA BORDER COUNTIES, THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ON
WEDNESDAY, EXPECT HIGHS TO BE TEMPERED BY THE SNOW COVER AND
MELTING WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 45 DEGREES. HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL NC
WILL RANGE 12 TO 18 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MO VALLEY AND COULD RESULT IN SOME
INCREASED MID OR HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MORNING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES WILL RANGE IN THE 1280S WHICH IS ABOUT 20M WARMER
THAN THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NIGHT THAT WONT BE AS
COLD AS TONIGHT BUT WITH A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. -BLAES
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1220 AM THURSDAY...
LARGELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS THE
INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY MODIFIES, WEAKENS, AND SHIFTS TO OUR S.
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NOAM, AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION,
BRINGING BOUTS OF CLOUDS. THE FIRST OF THESE, A PERTURBATION NOW
OVER THE PACNW, WILL DIVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSS THE
CAROLINAS SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING A SHOT OF HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS, BUT LITTLE ELSE, GIVEN THE LACK OF OPPORTUNITY TO
DRAW IN ANY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE SECOND PERTURBATION WILL MOVE
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRI NIGHT AND CROSS OUR REGION LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING, POTENTIALLY PHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE. SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS LIKE THE NAM/GFS DEVELOP A COASTAL
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOW IT DEEPENING IT AS IT HEADS NE JUST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE NBM SHOWS A NON-ZERO BUT VERY LOW (UNDER
20%) CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER OUR FAR E, CLOSE TO THE GEFS AND ENS
MEAN, WHILE THE GEPS IS ENTIRELY DRY. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY BUT
SHOW A SHOT OF THICK MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE LATE
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. LASTLY, THE NBM/LREF AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS TAKE A THIRD SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION,
EITHER CROSSING NC OR PASSING JUST TO OUR N, AND WHILE THE PWS WILL
BE CREEPING UP, THE EXPECTED SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
GREATLY LIMIT ANY INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC. WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST, BUT AGAIN WITH AN UPTICK IN CLOUDS TUE.
THIS LAST WAVE WILL DRAG A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA,
BUT THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVING IN BEHIND IT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER. OVERALL, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SAT WILL WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MON, AND BE 1-2 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL TUE/WED, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. -GIH
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1217 PM THURSDAY...
A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO EJECT EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON. KRDU WILL
LIKELY SEE CONTINUED REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BUT
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOWBAND IS QUICKLY APPROACHING. KRWI HAS JUST
DROPPED VIA THE SNOW, AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REMAIN SUB-VFR
WITH LOW VISBYS FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL THE BAND CLEARS
TO OUR EAST. KINT/KGSO HAVE ALREADY RETURNED TO VFR, AND SUSPECT
THAT KFAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR (SANS SOME FLEETING MVFR CEILINGS
THE NEXT FEW HOURS).
ANY LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH PASSAGE OF
AN ARCTIC FRONT (WHICH HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH THE TRIAD SITES).
BEHIND THIS FRONT, EXPECT IMMEDIATE 20 TO 25 KT NWLY SFC GUSTS
(ALREADY SHOWING IN THE TRIAD). THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BEFORE SUBSIDING SOME THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
(THEY STAY UP LONGEST IN THE TRIAD).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT PROMOTING DRY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE/POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW MAY PROMOTE
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS OF
NOW, SUSPECT THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, BUT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THIS
TIME.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-023>028-040>043-076>078.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...SWIGGETT
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...LUCHETTI
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