739
FXUS62 KRAH 210837
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
337 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND MODIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...
THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY IS A SPRAWLING 1042 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI.
EXCEPT FOR A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH,
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
AND THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY, ALLOWING SOME WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING UP TO 20 MPH TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. TODAY'S HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S TO THE MID 40S, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HELP MELT SNOW/SLEET/ICE
FROM THE LAST TWO DAYS. TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS, AS
LIGHT TO CALM WIND, CLEAR SKIES, AND THE FRESH SNOW COVER SHOULD
ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. CAUTION WILL BE NEEDED
FOR ANY DRIVERS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, AND ANY WATER ON LOCAL ROADWAYS THAT HASN'T
EVAPORATED WILL FREEZE AGAIN. DESPITE COOLER LOWS, APPARENT
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE HIGHER, AND THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A NEED FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...
* AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY PRODUCING AFTERNOON/EVENING CLOUDS AND SOME VIRGA.
* A MODIFYING AIRMASS AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN
LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT.
A FAST BUT WEAKENING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ON SATURDAY MORNING GIVES WAY TO COMPACT BUT STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE TN VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE CONTAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 10-20KFT AND ASCENT BUT A DRY
AIRMASS INCLUDING A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER AND OVERALL PW VALUES
OF 0.40 INCHES OR LESS. GIVEN THIS, MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE
WAY TO RAPIDLY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MID LEVEL RADAR RETURNS AND VIRGA BETWEEN
18 AND 02Z. WITH THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER DONT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. WITH A LINGERING CHILLY
AIRMASS AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS TO THE RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO THE UPPER
40S ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN
LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. -BLAES
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
* NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
* A BIG TEMPERATURE WARMUP IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO PERHAPS 70.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FAIR WEATHER. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY TRIGGERING WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WELL OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING DEEP
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR EAST. THE AIRMASS
MODERATES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. A BETTER DEFINED SOUTHERLY FLOW ARRIVES ON MONDAY AND WITH
MORNING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1320S SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WELL OFF THE COAST A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY BRIEFLY CLOSE OFF DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DEEPENING INTO THE A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
SPREADS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY. PREVIOUS SIMULATIONS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT RECENT TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF. ENSEMBLES ARE IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING MUCH DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY RESULTING IN HIGH-END CHANCE
POPS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR TO BE
RATHER LIGHT, PERHAPS A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THE BIGGER STORY
WILL BE THE MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
PERHAPS ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AN
PRECIPITATION. -BLAES
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1210 AM FRIDAY...
TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE MORE THAN A PASSING HIGH CLOUD. MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN WITH MODEL GUSTS FOR LATE FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON, AND HAVE TRENDED VALUES DOWN WITH THE 06Z TAF
PACKAGE. IF THE TREND CONTINUES, MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO REMOVE THE
GUSTS AT EASTERN SITES WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ENTERING THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ007>011-023>028-040>043-076>078.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ011-
027-028-042-043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...GREEN
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