947
FXUS62 KRAH 211529
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1028 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND MODIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1028 AM FRIDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DISPLAYED WNWLY FLOW FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER CENTRAL NC.
CONSIDERABLY DRY AIR WAS PRESENT, WITH PWAT (AS OBSERVED ON VIA THE
REMOTELY SENSED MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE PRODUCT) OF LESS THAN 0.2 INCHES
ENCOMPASSING ALL OF OUR AREA. UPPER SINGLE DIGIT TO LOWER TEEN SFC
DEW POINTS WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING, WITH SOME RESIDUAL NWLY SFC
GUSTS STILL SHOWING PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
FURTHER WEST, A 1042 MB SFC HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. THIS
FEATURE WILL EASE EASTWARD SOME THROUGH TODAY, WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE
WEAKENING WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE
TODAY, THE PRESENCE OF THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIRMASS IN ADDITION TO
RESIDUAL NWLY SFC FLOW WILL PROMOTE COLD DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 40 THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN LINGERING SNOW ACROSS LOCATIONS EAST OF I-95, THESE
AREAS MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 30S TODAY.
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CAME IN
WITH A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT, AND AS SUCH, HAVE DECREASED
LOWS A BIT. HOWEVER, FORECASTED THICKNESSES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHER TOMORROW MORNING IN ADDITION TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
AT LEAST A BIT OF STIRRING WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. AS SUCH, DON'T
THINK WE'LL DIP AS LOW AS THIS MORNING. OVERALL, FORECASTED
GENERALLY UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. APPARENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...
* AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY PRODUCING AFTERNOON/EVENING CLOUDS AND SOME VIRGA.
* A MODIFYING AIRMASS AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN
LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT.
A FAST BUT WEAKENING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ON SATURDAY MORNING GIVES WAY TO COMPACT BUT STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE TN VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE CONTAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 10-20KFT AND ASCENT BUT A DRY
AIRMASS INCLUDING A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER AND OVERALL PW VALUES
OF 0.40 INCHES OR LESS. GIVEN THIS, MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE
WAY TO RAPIDLY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MID LEVEL RADAR RETURNS AND VIRGA BETWEEN
18 AND 02Z. WITH THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER DONT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. WITH A LINGERING CHILLY
AIRMASS AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS TO THE RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO THE UPPER
40S ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN
LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. -BLAES
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
* NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
* A BIG TEMPERATURE WARMUP IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO PERHAPS 70.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FAIR WEATHER. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY TRIGGERING WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WELL OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING DEEP
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR EAST. THE AIRMASS
MODERATES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. A BETTER DEFINED SOUTHERLY FLOW ARRIVES ON MONDAY AND WITH
MORNING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1320S SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WELL OFF THE COAST A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY BRIEFLY CLOSE OFF DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DEEPENING INTO THE A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
SPREADS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY. PREVIOUS SIMULATIONS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT RECENT TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF. ENSEMBLES ARE IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING MUCH DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY RESULTING IN HIGH-END CHANCE
POPS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR TO BE
RATHER LIGHT, PERHAPS A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THE BIGGER STORY
WILL BE THE MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
PERHAPS ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AN
PRECIPITATION. -BLAES
AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 620 AM FRIDAY...
TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE MORE THAN A PASSING HIGH CLOUD.
CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS OCCURRING AT TAF SITES IS LIMITED, BUT HIGH
ENOUGH THAT IT FELT PRUDENT TO KEEP THEM IN THE FORECAST. THE GUSTS
WILL END AT SUNSET, IF THEY DEVELOP AT ALL.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ENTERING THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ007>011-023>028-040>043-076>078.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ011-
027-028-042-043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...LUCHETTI
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...GREEN
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