614
FXUS62 KRAH 211810 RRA
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
109 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND MODIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 109 PM FRIDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUNSET, BUT GENERALLY SHOULD PEAK AROUND 40. ANY RESIDUAL GUSTINESS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SUBSIDE BY SUNSET, ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT
STIRRING IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, AS WAS
NOTED IN THIS MORNING'S DISCUSSION, LIGHT STIRRING AND A BIT THICKER
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL PROMOTE A BIT WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS, APPARENT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 109 PM FRIDAY...
LINGERING WNWLY FLOW EARLY SATURDAY WILL TURN A BIT MORE SWLY ALOFT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A POTENT SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES. THE
SHORT-WAVE WILL THEN EJECT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC/VA WILL MOVE EAST AND
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT FLOW EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
ORGANIZE A BIT MORE FROM THE SSW SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT. GIVEN THE RETURN FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SOME BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST.
PWAT WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE BELOW NORMAL AND THUS DESPITE THE UPPER
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE, CENTRAL NC SHOULD
ONLY SEE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BUT NO RAINFALL SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT (POINT SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A QUITE DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER).
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
* NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
* A BIG TEMPERATURE WARMUP IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO PERHAPS 70.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FAIR WEATHER. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY TRIGGERING WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WELL OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING DEEP
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR EAST. THE AIRMASS
MODERATES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. A BETTER DEFINED SOUTHERLY FLOW ARRIVES ON MONDAY AND WITH
MORNING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1320S SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WELL OFF THE COAST A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY BRIEFLY CLOSE OFF DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DEEPENING INTO THE A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
SPREADS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY. PREVIOUS SIMULATIONS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT RECENT TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF. ENSEMBLES ARE IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING MUCH DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY RESULTING IN HIGH-END CHANCE
POPS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD APPEAR TO BE
RATHER LIGHT, PERHAPS A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THE BIGGER STORY
WILL BE THE MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
PERHAPS ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AN
PRECIPITATION. -BLAES
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1159 AM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS POST-
FRONTAL DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NC. ANY LINGERING
NWLY SFC GUSTINESS WILL LARGELY SUBSIDE BY SUNSET TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
STIRRING WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
TONIGHT AND THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD, BUT
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE/POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW MAY PROMOTE
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS OF
NOW, SUSPECT THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, BUT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THIS
TIME. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ007>011-023>028-040>043-076>078.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ011-
027-028-042-043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...LUCHETTI
SHORT TERM...LUCHETTI
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...LUCHETTI
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