392
FXUS62 KRAH 220548
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND WARM UP AS IT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 940 PM FRIDAY...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1036 MB HIGH STRETCHING FROM FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL INTO KY. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST, REACHING THE WV/VA/NC MOUNTAINS BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER
OK/KS, WHILE CENTRAL NC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAST WNW FLOW
BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE LINGERING
TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, AND MANY OBSERVING SITES HAVE
ALREADY GONE CALM. THUS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, AND DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE TEENS TO LOWER-20S ACROSS
THE REGION. SO DESPITE A LARGELY DIMINISHED SNOWPACK AND 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES ABOUT 20-25 M HIGHER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT, WE ARE IN
STORE FOR ONE LAST VERY COLD NIGHT. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER-TO-MID-20S IN MOST AREAS, WITH MID-TO-UPPER-TEENS POSSIBLE
IN THE COLDEST OUTLYING SPOTS. FORTUNATELY, THE VERY LIGHT WINDS
MEAN ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT, BUT
THESE LOWS ARE STILL 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY,
AND IT IS STILL IMPORTANT TO BUNDLE UP IF YOU HAVE TO GO OUTSIDE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 109 PM FRIDAY...
LINGERING WNWLY FLOW EARLY SATURDAY WILL TURN A BIT MORE SWLY ALOFT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A POTENT SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES. THE
SHORT-WAVE WILL THEN EJECT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC/VA WILL MOVE EAST AND
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT FLOW EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
ORGANIZE A BIT MORE FROM THE SSW SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT. GIVEN THE RETURN FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SOME BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST.
PWAT WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE BELOW NORMAL AND THUS DESPITE THE UPPER
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE, CENTRAL NC SHOULD
ONLY SEE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BUT NO RAINFALL SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT (POINT SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A QUITE DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER).
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
* TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: ALOFT, A S/W WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL
NC SUN NIGHT/MON. ANOTHER S/W WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE MON/MON
NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUE/TUE NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUE, WHILE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NEWD ALONG BUT WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST AND ANOTHER MOVES ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND ACROSS FL. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, SUN/SUN NIGHT SHOULD STILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED MON AND TUE, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY TUE AND LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S.
WEDNESDAY ONWARD: ALOFT, A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTL AND
ERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EWD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN US AS NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH IT FROM WED-FRI. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON WED AHEAD OF ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST US, THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE, WITH FROPA WED
NIGHT/EARLY THU (GFS) OR LATE THU/THU NIGHT (EC). FOR NOW, EXPECT
GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE-WEEK. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
BUT THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY WRT HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT
WITH THE SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NC AND WHEN THAT
WILL BE. THE FROPA TIMING WILL ALSO IMPACT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST,
BUT FOR NOW EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THU, RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAIR TO CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT
MORNING, WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN THE REGION EARLY, THEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN WITH LOWERING BASES BETWEEN
16Z AND 18Z SATURDAY. CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN VFR, AND NO VISBY
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH SAT EVENING ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, THEN BECOMING SW 5-10 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BEYOND 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WILL INCLUDE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THE CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...DANCO
SHORT TERM...LUCHETTI
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CA/HARTFIELD
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