604
FXUS62 KRAH 220749
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND WARM UP AS IT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
TODAY WILL BE DRY BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO THICKEN AS THEY MOVE IN MID
MORNING IN THE WEST AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY IN THE LOW 40S NORTH, AND AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SW WINDS. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST TO EAST FROM 9PM TO 1AM. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 20S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING BACK IN ON SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND!
NORTHERLY LIGHT WINDS WILL START THE DAY OFF, AND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST, EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FROM THE W/SW BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S NORTH TO LOW 30S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
* TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: ALOFT, A S/W WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL
NC SUN NIGHT/MON. ANOTHER S/W WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE MON/MON
NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUE/TUE NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUE, WHILE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NEWD ALONG BUT WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST AND ANOTHER MOVES ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND ACROSS FL. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, SUN/SUN NIGHT SHOULD STILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED MON AND TUE, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY TUE AND LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S.
WEDNESDAY ONWARD: ALOFT, A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTL AND
ERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EWD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN US AS NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH IT FROM WED-FRI. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH ON WED AHEAD OF ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST US, THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE, WITH FROPA WED
NIGHT/EARLY THU (GFS) OR LATE THU/THU NIGHT (EC). FOR NOW, EXPECT
GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE-WEEK. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
BUT THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY WRT HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT
WITH THE SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NC AND WHEN THAT
WILL BE. THE FROPA TIMING WILL ALSO IMPACT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST,
BUT FOR NOW EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THU, RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAIR TO CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT
MORNING, WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN THE REGION EARLY, THEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN WITH LOWERING BASES BETWEEN
16Z AND 18Z SATURDAY. CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN VFR, AND NO VISBY
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH SAT EVENING ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, THEN BECOMING SW 5-10 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BEYOND 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WILL INCLUDE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THE CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CA/HARTFIELD
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