664
FXUS62 KRAH 221504
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1003 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. A SERIES OF POTENT SHORT-WAVES WILL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVE MID TO LATE THIS
UPCOMING WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1000 AM SATURDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTED WNWNLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL NC. FURTHER UPSTREAM, A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WAS
EVIDENT OVER ARKANSAS. THIS FEATURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PIVOT OVER
CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, PROMOTING INCREASING MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT TODAY/TONIGHT.
AT THE SFC, LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTED THE CENTER OF A 1033 MB HIGH
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN AREAS/SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. THIS HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT, PROMOTING MOSTLY CALM TO
LIGHT SSWLY FLOW (LATER TODAY) AND PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AS WE PIVOT TO THIS EVENING, THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE AND ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER FORCING WILL
PIVOT OVER CENTRAL NC. WHILE POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE SUB-CLOUD
LAYER SHOULD BE QUITE DRY, SURPRISINGLY, CAMS ARE PRETTY GENEROUS IN
SIMULATING A SWATH OF WEAK RADAR ECHOES MOVING WEST TO EAST OVER OUR
AREA BETWEEN ~22 TO 00Z. GIVEN HOW STRONG THE UPPER FORCING IS,
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE SOME SPRINKLES/TRACE OBSERVATIONS
WITH THIS FEATURE'S PASSAGE. WHILE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
VIRGA, DECIDED THERE WAS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO INTRODUCE SPRINKLES
FOR A FEW HOURS GENERALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THAT TEMPORAL PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE SUNRISE, AND AS
SUCH, WE COULD SEE SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THUS, WENT WITH A LITTLE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS, DIPPING SITES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING BACK IN ON SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND!
NORTHERLY LIGHT WINDS WILL START THE DAY OFF, AND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST, EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FROM THE W/SW BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S NORTH TO LOW 30S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...
* MILD, WITH TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES PEAKING ABOUT 5-10 F ABOVE AVG
TUE-THU
* A CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS THU
* COOLER AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FRI
A COUPLE OF MID/UPR-LEVEL RIDGES WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS WRN
NOAM AND PROGRESS EWD INTO THE ROCKIES MID-LATE THIS WEEK.
DOWNSTREAM, INITIALLY LOW AMPLITUDE, SHORT WAVELENGTH FLOW
WILL AMPLIFY AND CULMINATE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON THU AND ACROSS AND OFFSHORE
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON FRI.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/MODIFY
WHILE DRIFTING ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS MON-WED, AHEAD OF
A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED-THU. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRI.
THE RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPERATURES
FROM THE UPR 50S-LWR 60S ON MON TO SOLIDLY IN THE 60S, TO AROUND 70
ACROSS SRN NC, TUE-THU. RAIN CHANCES ACCOMPANYING THE AMPLIFYING
TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN
THE WRN NC PIEDMONT EARLY THU MORNING, CONTINUE EWD ACROSS
CNTL NC THROUGH THE DAY, AND LINGER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EVENING. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, TO
NEAR 60S IN SRN NC, WILL FOLLOW FOR FRI.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAIR TO CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
MORNING, WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN THE REGION MID MORNING,
THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN WITH LOWERING BASES
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z TODAY. CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN VFR, AND NO VISBY
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY CALM TO LIGHT AND EXPECTED TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING SW 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BEYOND 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WILL INCLUDE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THE CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LUCHETTI
NEAR TERM...LUCHETTI
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...CA
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