893
FXUS62 KRAH 221937
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. A SERIES OF POTENT SHORT-WAVES WILL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BEFORE A
POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVE MID TO LATE THIS
UPCOMING WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 235 PM SATURDAY...
THE UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE IS GENERATING SOME ELEVATED RADAR ECHOES
OVER EASTERN TN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NONE OF WHICH HAS BEEN REPORTED
TO REACH THE GROUND. THINK WE'LL SEE THE SAME THING OVER OUR AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING
THE SFC ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN. OTHERWISE, JUST
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, CLEARING OUT
WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MID 20 LOWS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 235 PM SATURDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL TROUGH, WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS NC ON SUNDAY. INCREASED HEIGHTS AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN A QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 50S. MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. NO CONCERNS FOR PRECIP WITH THIS TROUGH GIVEN DRY BL. LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...
* MILD, WITH TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES PEAKING ABOUT 5-10 F ABOVE AVG
TUE-THU
* A CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS THU
* COOLER AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FRI
A COUPLE OF MID/UPR-LEVEL RIDGES WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS WRN
NOAM AND PROGRESS EWD INTO THE ROCKIES MID-LATE THIS WEEK.
DOWNSTREAM, INITIALLY LOW AMPLITUDE, SHORT WAVELENGTH FLOW
WILL AMPLIFY AND CULMINATE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON THU AND ACROSS AND OFFSHORE
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON FRI.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/MODIFY
WHILE DRIFTING ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS MON-WED, AHEAD OF
A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED-THU. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRI.
THE RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPERATURES
FROM THE UPR 50S-LWR 60S ON MON TO SOLIDLY IN THE 60S, TO AROUND 70
ACROSS SRN NC, TUE-THU. RAIN CHANCES ACCOMPANYING THE AMPLIFYING
TROUGH ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN
THE WRN NC PIEDMONT EARLY THU MORNING, CONTINUE EWD ACROSS
CNTL NC THROUGH THE DAY, AND LINGER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EVENING. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, TO
NEAR 60S IN SRN NC, WILL FOLLOW FOR FRI.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1239 PM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THIS MAY GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES, BUT THE OVERALL SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS
QUITE DRY LEADING TO PRIMARILY VIRGA. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY HOVER
IN THE 5 TO 10 KFT AGL LEVEL WITH THE FEATURE'S PASSAGE. SFC FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CALM TO LIGHT THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG JUST SOUTH OF KFAY
TONIGHT, BUT THINK IT SHOULD LARGELY NOT IMPACT THE TERMINAL.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY
THEN RETURN THURSDAY AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LUCHETTI
NEAR TERM...LUCHETTI
SHORT TERM...LEINS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...LUCHETTI
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