063
FXUS62 KRAH 271006
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
610 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY, WITH
FOLLOWING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
* FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM THIS MORNING
* INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AGAIN FOR MUCH OF TODAY AT MID-LEVELS
WITH TROUGHING OFF THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC.
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
TOWARD 12Z SAT. ROUGHLY 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED RIGHT
OVERTOP NC TO START OUR DAY. AFTER A COLD START WITH AREAS OF FROST,
HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND NEAR NORMAL INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70,
WARMEST IN THE SW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5-10
MPH. AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH RH LEVELS AROUND 20-24 PERCENT AND CONTINUED DRYNESS AND FIRE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN FULL SWING
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH OFF THE COAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE TN/OH
VALLEY REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION AROUND THE 700-MB LAYER.
THE CONTINUED STIRRING AND CLOUDS WILL FAVOR MUCH WARMER LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT TOWARD BERMUDA.
CONTINUED SSW SURFACE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE, ALONG WITH CONTINUED
WARMING OF THE AIRMASS. MOISTURE RIDING AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE 850-700 MB RIDGE WILL FAVOR MORNING MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OR
ADDITIONALLY LIFT NORTHEAST AS FLOW AT 700-MB BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
AS OPPOSED TO NW. THUS, WHILE SOME CLOUDS MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT
WARMING, SUNSHINE SHOULD TAKE OVER AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. THIS
ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS CLOSE TO VALUES TYPICAL FOR EARLY MAY
SHOULD FAVOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. SOME 80-DEGREE READINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
TRIANGLE AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO SANDHILLS. WITH THE HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY, WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 MPH. WHILE DEWPOINTS
WILL RECOVER FROM THU INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE, RH LEVELS
WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT DRY IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. AN INCREASED
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED.
CLOUDS WILL BUILD BACK IN FRI NIGHT AS GUIDANCE SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE
REACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RISING DEWPOINTS SHOULD FAVOR 15-18 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE, THE WEEKEND WILL START OUT DRY AND VERY WARM. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MID SOUTH WILL
CAST AMPLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDS SKIES AND A MILD BREEZE, HIGHS SATURDAY ONCE AGAIN TOPPING
OUT IN THE 75-80 DEGREES, WHICH IS 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM
SW TO NE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH EJECTS NE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE EXITING
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WEAK INSTABILITY OF ONLY 100-200 J/KG SHOULD
LIMIT THUNDER CHANCES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT,
AVERAGING AROUND 0.25". HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE 60S.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: A SERIES OF CLOSELY SPACED MID/UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO
THE NORTH-CENTRAL EASTERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM SUNDAY'S TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION
COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY, AND POTENTIALLY TEMPER/LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THESE DETAILS.
OTHERWISE, IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. HIGHS RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. LOWS IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER/MID 50S SE.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A STRONG TRANSITORY ~1035MB SFC HIGH WILL
BRING A BRIEF STINT OF COOLER, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE NEXT RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 610 AM THURSDAY...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT TO START THE PERIOD, THEN SLOWLY
VEER TO BE OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 5
AND 8 KT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AROUND 5 KT. SOME
MARGINAL LLWS MAY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF RDU/RWI FRI MORNING, BUT
THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND 2 KFT SEEN IN FORECAST GUIDANCE ARE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.
OUTLOOK: A PERIOD OF LLWS MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT MORNING. VFR SHOULD
LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH SAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN
AND MON WITH OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. IT MAY ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY ON
MON.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
..INCREASED FIRE DANGER REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING
THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 18 TO 25 PERCENT AND DRY
FUELS WILL CONTINUE A RISK OF ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE STRONG, BRIEF GUSTS TO 15 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON,
CONTINUING THE ENHANCED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS.
ON FRIDAY, DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE, BUT RH LEVELS MAY STILL
BE SOMEWHAT DRY IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THIS ALONG WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS A TAD GUSTY BETWEEN 15-20 MPH COULD WARRANT AN
ADDITIONAL FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
GRADUALLY RECOVERING RH LEVELS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER, WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A REDUCED FIRE DANGER THREAT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083.
SYNOPSIS...KREN/MWS
NEAR TERM...KREN
SHORT TERM...KREN
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KREN
FIRE WEATHER...KREN
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