542
FXUS62 KRAH 280706
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY, WITH FOLLOWING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...
RIDGING OFF THE SE US COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD
BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE BROAD SSW FLOW. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OH
VALLEY, PROMOTING WARMING OF THE AIRMASS TYPICAL FOR EARLY MAY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO LIMIT GOOD SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE SOME
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED DRY FUELS, SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF 20-25
MPH, AND HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 25-30 PERCENT.
TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND TX WILL
BECOME A WEAKER OPEN WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THIS ALONG WITH CONTINUED STIRRING OF SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PROMOTE MILD LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SOME PATCHY LOW
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT/TRIAD.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...
THE OPEN WAVE AT MID-LEVELS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL TRACK INTO THE
TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS SAT AFTN/NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH PW'S RISING TO NEAR 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
HOWEVER, AT THE SURFACE, RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED WITH THE
HIGH NEAR BERMUDA, KEEPING US DRY. THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE OFF AND
ON MID/HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS, HIGHS MAY BE 1 DEGREE
LOWER BUT LARGELY STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. DEWPOINT
RECOVERY WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RH LEVELS WITH MIN VALUES OF 35 TO 40
PERCENT.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING, MAXIMIZING POTENTIALLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS WHERE UPSLOPE MAY COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AROUND
THE RIDGE. WE REMAIN MILD FOR LOWS WITH MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 239 PM THURSDAY...
UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED: A WEAK SHORT-WAVE WILL TRAVERSE
THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT OVER THE APPALACHIANS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A DEEPER TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BEYOND TUESDAY, GUIDANCE
DIVERGES, WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING ENHANCED RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
US WHILE THE GFS DEPICTS A STRONG MID-WEEK SHORT-WAVE.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE WESTERN RIDGE OF AN ANCHORED, OFFSHORE
SFC HIGH WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED SLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY, ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LARGELY REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA. AS SUCH,
MOST OF SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH WARM DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
POPS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WASHED OUT UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PERTURBATIONS/MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. QPF WITH THIS ROUND
SHOULD BE LIMITED (SUNDAY 12Z THROUGH MONDAY 12Z), WITH MEDIAN
ENSEMBLE QPF OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS (90TH PERCENTILES
MAX OUT AROUND A HALF INCH). MODELS SHOW AT LEAST A BIT OF
INSTABILITY POSSIBLY DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FOR NOW, THINK
THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S.
AFTER A LITTLE LULL SUNDAY EVENING, POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM
WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY AS PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST UPPER
FORCING MOVING OVER OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS SUCH,
HAVE TRENDED HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WRT TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY, ENSEMBLES DO
SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS SHUNTING THE BEST SHEAR/CAPE COMBO TO
OUR SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER, BUT THIS
MAY ALSO LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OVER CENTRAL NC AS
WELL.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: AS WAS MENTIONED ABOVE, GUIDANCE SPLITS ON
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WRT TO THE UPPER PATTERN. AS SUCH, DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN LOW POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME FOR NOW. AFTER COOLER EARLY TO
MID WEEK TEMPS IN THE 70S, WE COULD SEE A GOOD WARM UP HEADING INTO
LATER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 24-HOUR TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 5-8 KT WILL INCREASE FRI
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT, HIGHEST AT GSO AND INT. WINDS
SHOULD WEAKEN FRI EVENING, BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN STIRRED
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KT WITH A SEA-BREEZE. MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PRIOR TAF FORECAST INCLUDED
LLWS AT GSO/INT/RDU. HOWEVER, RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THIS THREAT IS VERY LOW, WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET MAGNITUDE
TOO LOW TO REACH THE SHEAR THRESHOLD. HAVE REMOVED LLWS FROM THIS
TAF ISSUANCE AS A RESULT.
OUTLOOK: AREAS OF IFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AND SUN MORNING,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE SUN ACROSS THE TRIAD TERMINALS. A LOW-LEVEL JET
COULD FAVOR LLWS SAT AND SUN MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN
CONTINUED STIRRING OF SURFACE WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SUN BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MON WITH A COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...
* INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH, WARM
TEMPERATURES, CONTINUED DRY FUELS, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT, WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HAS BEEN COORDINATED WITH THE NCFS AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES OVER THE STATE.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO BUILD AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PERCENT SAT AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S SUN.
ADDITIONALLY, SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUN AND ESPECIALLY MON
WITH A COLD FRONT. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LESSEN THE FIRE DANGER.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KREN
SHORT TERM...KREN
LONG TERM...LUCHETTI
AVIATION...KREN
FIRE WEATHER...KREN
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