030
FXUS62 KRAH 280717
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY, WITH FOLLOWING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...
RIDGING OFF THE SE US COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD
BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE BROAD SSW FLOW. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OH
VALLEY, PROMOTING WARMING OF THE AIRMASS TYPICAL FOR EARLY MAY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO LIMIT GOOD SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE SOME
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED DRY FUELS, SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF 20-25
MPH, AND HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 25-30 PERCENT.
TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND TX WILL
BECOME A WEAKER OPEN WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THIS ALONG WITH CONTINUED STIRRING OF SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PROMOTE MILD LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SOME PATCHY LOW
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT/TRIAD.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...
THE OPEN WAVE AT MID-LEVELS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL TRACK INTO THE
TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS SAT AFTN/NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH PW'S RISING TO NEAR 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
HOWEVER, AT THE SURFACE, RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED WITH THE
HIGH NEAR BERMUDA, KEEPING US DRY. THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE OFF AND
ON MID/HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS, HIGHS MAY BE 1 DEGREE
LOWER BUT LARGELY STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. DEWPOINT
RECOVERY WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RH LEVELS WITH MIN VALUES OF 35 TO 40
PERCENT.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING, MAXIMIZING POTENTIALLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS WHERE UPSLOPE MAY COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AROUND
THE RIDGE. WE REMAIN MILD FOR LOWS WITH MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...
* STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NC TO CLOSE
OUT THE MONTH OF MARCH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: THE SHEARED REMNANTS OF THE FORMER WELL-
DEFINED SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY. SCATTERED/AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS PWATS INCREASE TO ~1.6" WITHIN A RIBBON OF VORT IMPULSES AND WAA.
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER, BUT KEPT IT
ALL SHOWERS FOR NOW. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, GENERALLY BETWEEN
0.10-0.20". UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER/MID
70S NW TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 SE. MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 60S.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: A MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES SOUTH THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND COMPRISED OF AT LEAST A FEW
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. ACCOMPANYING BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS NC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
BEFORE EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HOURS. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH, IF ANY, EARLIER
SHOWERS/CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS WILL TEMPER HEATING AND
RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE STILL
INDICATES THAT DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITHIN LOW TO MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINT PLUME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY, LIKELY MAXIMIZED
ALONG AND EAST OF US 1. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WRT
TO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AND POSSIBLE OUTCOME OF A
"CAROLINA SPLIT" OWING TO THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF TO
THE NORTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THESE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA.
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER/MID 50S SE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A STRONG TRANSITORY ~1035MB SFC HIGH WILL
BRING A BRIEF STINT OF COOLER, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK,
BEFORE A LIKELY REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH
RETREATS OFFSHORE. BEYOND TUESDAY, SPREAD IS HIGH WRT TO RAIN
CHANCES WITH THE GFS CONSIDERED TO BE A WET OUTLIER WITH A
PREFERENCE TOWARDS THE EC/CMC CAMP WHICH KEEPS THE BULK OF PRECIP
WEST OF THE AREA OWING TO A FORMIDABLE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 24-HOUR TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 5-8 KT WILL INCREASE FRI
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT, HIGHEST AT GSO AND INT. WINDS
SHOULD WEAKEN FRI EVENING, BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN STIRRED
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KT WITH A SEA-BREEZE. MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PRIOR TAF FORECAST INCLUDED
LLWS AT GSO/INT/RDU. HOWEVER, RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THIS THREAT IS VERY LOW, WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET MAGNITUDE
TOO LOW TO REACH THE SHEAR THRESHOLD. HAVE REMOVED LLWS FROM THIS
TAF ISSUANCE AS A RESULT.
OUTLOOK: AREAS OF IFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AND SUN MORNING,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE SUN ACROSS THE TRIAD TERMINALS. A LOW-LEVEL JET
COULD FAVOR LLWS SAT AND SUN MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN
CONTINUED STIRRING OF SURFACE WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SUN BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MON WITH A COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...
* INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH, WARM
TEMPERATURES, CONTINUED DRY FUELS, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT, WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HAS BEEN COORDINATED WITH THE NCFS AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES OVER THE STATE.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO BUILD AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PERCENT SAT AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S SUN.
ADDITIONALLY, SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUN AND ESPECIALLY MON
WITH A COLD FRONT. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LESSEN THE FIRE DANGER.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KREN
SHORT TERM...KREN
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KREN
FIRE WEATHER...KREN
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