773
FXUS62 KRAH 281704
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
104 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO PLACE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 914 AM FRIDAY...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER
ACROSS NC, ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT THAT IS LIFTING THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. THERE ARE STILL POCKETS OF STRATUS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS
AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD
MOSTLY BREAK UP AND MIX OUT BEFORE NOON. MEANWHILE, SKIES ARE
ALREADY MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE CLOUD COVER
KEPT TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH MANY SPOTS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S. TEMPS AREA-WIDE HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED INTO THE MID
50S AS OF 13Z.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY, YIELDING INCREASING SSW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S COMMON BY MID AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
BREEZINESS AROUND 10-15 MPH. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM AN APPROACHING TROUGH OVER EAST TX WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT.
THIS, COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA, WILL
RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...
THE OPEN WAVE AT MID-LEVELS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL TRACK INTO THE
TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS SAT AFTN/NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH PW'S RISING TO NEAR 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
HOWEVER, AT THE SURFACE, RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED WITH THE
HIGH NEAR BERMUDA, KEEPING US DRY. THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE OFF AND
ON MID/HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS, HIGHS MAY BE 1 DEGREE
LOWER BUT LARGELY STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. DEWPOINT
RECOVERY WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RH LEVELS WITH MIN VALUES OF 35 TO 40
PERCENT.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING, MAXIMIZING POTENTIALLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS WHERE UPSLOPE MAY COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AROUND
THE RIDGE. WE REMAIN MILD FOR LOWS WITH MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...
* STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NC TO CLOSE
OUT THE MONTH OF MARCH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: THE SHEARED REMNANTS OF THE FORMER WELL-
DEFINED SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY. SCATTERED/AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS PWATS INCREASE TO ~1.6" WITHIN A RIBBON OF VORT IMPULSES AND WAA.
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER, BUT KEPT IT
ALL SHOWERS FOR NOW. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, GENERALLY BETWEEN
0.10-0.20". UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER/MID
70S NW TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 SE. MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 60S.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: A MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES SOUTH THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND COMPRISED OF AT LEAST A FEW
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. ACCOMPANYING BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS NC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
BEFORE EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HOURS. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH, IF ANY, EARLIER
SHOWERS/CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS WILL TEMPER HEATING AND
RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE STILL
INDICATES THAT DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITHIN LOW TO MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINT PLUME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY, LIKELY MAXIMIZED
ALONG AND EAST OF US 1. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WRT
TO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AND POSSIBLE OUTCOME OF A
"CAROLINA SPLIT" OWING TO THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF TO
THE NORTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THESE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA.
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER/MID 50S SE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A STRONG TRANSITORY ~1035MB SFC HIGH WILL
BRING A BRIEF STINT OF COOLER, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK,
BEFORE A LIKELY REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH
RETREATS OFFSHORE. BEYOND TUESDAY, SPREAD IS HIGH WRT TO RAIN
CHANCES WITH THE GFS CONSIDERED TO BE A WET OUTLIER WITH A
PREFERENCE TOWARDS THE EC/CMC CAMP WHICH KEEPS THE BULK OF PRECIP
WEST OF THE AREA OWING TO A FORMIDABLE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 104 PM FRIDAY...
VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS RELAXING AFTER 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LATE
TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE AN INTRUSION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF NC AND CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR STRATUS
AT FAY/RWI/RDU. JUST HOW LOW IT WILL GET IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT I
INCLUDED SOME 1KFT CEILINGS AT THOSE SITES, WHILE ONLY GOING DOWN TO
3KFT AT INT/GSO. ANY STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD MIX OUT BY
MID/LATE MORNING WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STILL SOME SUGGESTIONS OF LLWS POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT.
OUTLOOK: IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNING. RAIN EXPECTED
AT TIMES SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. PERIODIC DROPS TO IFR OR LOWER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS ON MONDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...
* INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH, WARM
TEMPERATURES, CONTINUED DRY FUELS, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT, WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HAS BEEN COORDINATED WITH THE NCFS AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES OVER THE STATE.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO BUILD AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PERCENT SAT AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S SUN.
ADDITIONALLY, SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUN AND ESPECIALLY MON
WITH A COLD FRONT. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LESSEN THE FIRE DANGER.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LEINS
NEAR TERM...LEINS
SHORT TERM...KREN
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...KREN
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