304
FXUS62 KRAH 281900
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO PLACE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC HAVE CLEARED OUT
WITH ONLY A FEW CU IN PLACE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, AND TEMPS HAVE
QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. STILL A FEW MORE HOURS TO
REACH OUR HIGH FOR THE DAY WHICH LOOKS ON TRACK TO BE NEAR 80 IN
MOST SPOTS (MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN).
EXPECT QUIET/DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EVEN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND
RETURN FLOW USHERS IN MID/UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. BETWEEN
THE CLOUDS AND INCREASED DEWPOINTS, TEMPS WILL BE MILD ONCE AGAIN
WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER LOUISIANA WILL TREK NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY, SPREADING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
PROCESS. THIS, ALONG WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH TO OUR EAST, WILL ALLOW
FOR A CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WHILE THE DAY WILL
START OFF CLOUDY, THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. AND ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL AT THE
SURFACE, TEMPS WILL RESPOND BY REACHING THE LOW (TO POSSIBLY MID)
80S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE MILD, THESE VALUES ARE STILL WELL
SHORT OF RECORDS FOR THE DAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN ONCE
AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COMBINATION OF INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AS WELL AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD TEMPS WITH MID/UPPER 50S EXPECTED AREA-WIDE.
SEE BELOW FOR DISCUSSION ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...
* STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NC TO CLOSE
OUT THE MONTH OF MARCH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: THE SHEARED REMNANTS OF THE FORMER WELL-
DEFINED SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY. SCATTERED/AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS PWATS INCREASE TO ~1.6" WITHIN A RIBBON OF VORT IMPULSES AND WAA.
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER, BUT KEPT IT
ALL SHOWERS FOR NOW. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, GENERALLY BETWEEN
0.10-0.20". UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER/MID
70S NW TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 SE. MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 60S.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: A MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES SOUTH THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND COMPRISED OF AT LEAST A FEW
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. ACCOMPANYING BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS NC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
BEFORE EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HOURS. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH, IF ANY, EARLIER
SHOWERS/CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS WILL TEMPER HEATING AND
RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE STILL
INDICATES THAT DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITHIN LOW TO MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINT PLUME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY, LIKELY MAXIMIZED
ALONG AND EAST OF US 1. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WRT
TO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AND POSSIBLE OUTCOME OF A
"CAROLINA SPLIT" OWING TO THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF TO
THE NORTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THESE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA.
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER/MID 50S SE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A STRONG TRANSITORY ~1035MB SFC HIGH WILL
BRING A BRIEF STINT OF COOLER, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK,
BEFORE A LIKELY REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH
RETREATS OFFSHORE. BEYOND TUESDAY, SPREAD IS HIGH WRT TO RAIN
CHANCES WITH THE GFS CONSIDERED TO BE A WET OUTLIER WITH A
PREFERENCE TOWARDS THE EC/CMC CAMP WHICH KEEPS THE BULK OF PRECIP
WEST OF THE AREA OWING TO A FORMIDABLE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...
VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS RELAXING AFTER 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LATE
TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE AN INTRUSION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF NC AND CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR STRATUS
AT FAY/RWI/RDU. JUST HOW LOW IT WILL GET IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT I
INCLUDED SOME 1KFT CEILINGS AT THOSE SITES, WHILE ONLY GOING DOWN TO
3KFT AT INT/GSO. ANY STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD MIX OUT BY
MID/LATE MORNING WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STILL SOME SUGGESTIONS OF LLWS POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT.
OUTLOOK: IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNING. RAIN EXPECTED
AT TIMES SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. PERIODIC DROPS TO IFR OR LOWER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS ON MONDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...
* INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
* ANOTHER INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN COORDINATED WITH
NCFS FOR WESTERN NC FOR SATURDAY, AND WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS
EVENING.
DEWPOINTS HAVE ONCE AGAIN MIXED OUT CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH RH'S LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE BY LATER
TODAY. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WILL RELAX AFTER
SUNSET AND AS SUCH, THE IFD WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING.
WHILE THERE WILL BE AN INTRUSION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY
AREA-WIDE ON SATURDAY, FUELS REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE. RH VALUES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 30-35
PERCENT, BUT FUEL CONCERNS, ALONG WITH ANOTHER DAY OF 15 MPH
BREEZINESS, SUPPORTS THE NEED FOR ANOTHER INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT. UNLIKE EARLIER THIS WEEK, THE STATEMENT FOR SATURDAY WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE, AS RH'S WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER TO THE EAST.
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE UPWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, LIKELY LESSENING THE FIRE
DANGER THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LEINS
NEAR TERM...LEINS
SHORT TERM...LEINS
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page