075
FXUS62 KRAH 281921
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO PLACE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC HAVE CLEARED OUT
WITH ONLY A FEW CU IN PLACE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, AND TEMPS HAVE
QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. STILL A FEW MORE HOURS TO
REACH OUR HIGH FOR THE DAY WHICH LOOKS ON TRACK TO BE NEAR 80 IN
MOST SPOTS (MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN).
EXPECT QUIET/DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EVEN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND
RETURN FLOW USHERS IN MID/UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. BETWEEN
THE CLOUDS AND INCREASED DEWPOINTS, TEMPS WILL BE MILD ONCE AGAIN
WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER LOUISIANA WILL TREK NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY, SPREADING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
PROCESS. THIS, ALONG WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH TO OUR EAST, WILL ALLOW
FOR A CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WHILE THE DAY WILL
START OFF CLOUDY, THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. AND ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL AT THE
SURFACE, TEMPS WILL RESPOND BY REACHING THE LOW (TO POSSIBLY MID)
80S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE MILD, THESE VALUES ARE STILL WELL
SHORT OF RECORDS FOR THE DAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN ONCE
AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COMBINATION OF INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AS WELL AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD TEMPS WITH MID/UPPER 50S EXPECTED AREA-WIDE.
SEE BELOW FOR DISCUSSION ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
* THREAT OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
* FAIR AND COOLER ON TUESDAY.
* HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS ON
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM AL/GA INTO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC AS IT DISSIPATES ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS THE SAME DISTURBANCE THAT TRIGGERED THE HEAVY RAIN IN
SOUTH TX ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND PW VALUES
EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES, EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE
COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO DON'T EXPECT A WASHOUT.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY AROUND
OR LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE AND SOME
FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 NEAR FAYETTEVILLE. CLOUDS AND A
SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL RESULT IN A MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER A GENERAL LULL MONDAY MORNING, THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH
MORE ACTIVE DURING THE DAY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED, SLOW MOVING
COMBINED NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES FROM THE OH AND
TN VALLEY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY
EVENING AND OFF THE COAST BY AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THERE IS A
FAIR AMOUNT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SOME CRITICAL DETAILS THAT WILL
INFLUENCE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. FIRST, THE
MORNING MAY START OFF WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW STRATUS WHICH COULD
DELAY AND INHIBIT HEATING THAT WOULD REDUCE DESTABLIZATION. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION WHICH COULD ALSO
LIMIT DESTABLIZATION. THE MID LEVEL FORCING PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IS NOT AS VIGOROUS AS IT MAY HAVE APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO
AND IT APPEARS TO LAG THE COLD FRONT A BIT WITH THE ARRIVAL TIME
PERHAPS A BIT TARDY TO CAPTURE THE BEST DIURNAL TIMING. WITH THIS IN
MIND HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE STRONG
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 35 TO 40
KTS AND CAPE VALUES LIKELY AROUND 500 J/KG, IF CONVECTION CAN FORM,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A
PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. SPC
CONTINUES TO INCLUDE THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK BUT GIVEN TRENDS IT
APPEARS THIS EVENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS AS OPPOSED TO A LARGE OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST AND SHOULD FADE LATE IN THE
NIGHT. QPF VALUES FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. THE COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
A COLD AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
THAT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
EXTEND INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AND LINGER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S NEAR ROANOKE RAPIDS
TO THE UPPER 60S IN RALEIGH AND GREENSBORO TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR
FAYETTEVILLE. A CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S.
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND STRENGTHENS ON
THURSDAY WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE
LOCATED WELL TO OUR WEST. A RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
STRENGTHENS ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY RESULTED IN A PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S IN MANY LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A LIMITED CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK IN THE WARM SECTOR BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED. -BLAES
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...
VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS RELAXING AFTER 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LATE
TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE AN INTRUSION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF NC AND CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR STRATUS
AT FAY/RWI/RDU. JUST HOW LOW IT WILL GET IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT I
INCLUDED SOME 1KFT CEILINGS AT THOSE SITES, WHILE ONLY GOING DOWN TO
3KFT AT INT/GSO. ANY STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD MIX OUT BY
MID/LATE MORNING WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STILL SOME SUGGESTIONS OF LLWS POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT.
OUTLOOK: IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNING. RAIN EXPECTED
AT TIMES SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. PERIODIC DROPS TO IFR OR LOWER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS ON MONDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...
* INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
* ANOTHER INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN COORDINATED WITH
NCFS FOR WESTERN NC FOR SATURDAY, AND WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS
EVENING.
DEWPOINTS HAVE ONCE AGAIN MIXED OUT CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH RH'S LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE BY LATER
TODAY. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WILL RELAX AFTER
SUNSET AND AS SUCH, THE IFD WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING.
WHILE THERE WILL BE AN INTRUSION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY
AREA-WIDE ON SATURDAY, FUELS REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE. RH VALUES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 30-35
PERCENT, BUT FUEL CONCERNS, ALONG WITH ANOTHER DAY OF 15 MPH
BREEZINESS, SUPPORTS THE NEED FOR ANOTHER INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT. UNLIKE EARLIER THIS WEEK, THE STATEMENT FOR SATURDAY WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE, AS RH'S WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER TO THE EAST.
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE UPWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, LIKELY LESSENING THE FIRE
DANGER THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LEINS
NEAR TERM...LEINS
SHORT TERM...LEINS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
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