778
FXUS62 KRAH 290641
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND MODIFY DURING THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS IS ALL TIED TO A SHORTWAVE AT MID-LEVELS OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL WEAK AS IT RUNS INTO THE
RIDGE OVER OUR REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED NEAR BERMUDA TODAY AND TONIGHT,
WITH CONTINUED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS, AT TIMES GUSTING
TO 20-25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
FRI IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, SOME 12-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND WESTERN SANDHILLS
WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPS, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, DRY FUELS, AND
RH LEVELS IN THE LOWER 30S.
CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT
WITH THE WEAK WAVE AT MID-LEVELS AND INCREASING PW'S OVER 180-
PERCENT OF NORMAL. AT LOW-LEVELS, INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL FAVOR ALSO LOW STRATUS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT BY EARLY SUN. LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN FULL SWING ON SUN. A MORE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY IS FORECAST IN THE GUIDANCE
TO TRACK UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE OUR WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY
INCREASED FIRE DANGER RISK.
CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME
LOW STRATUS IS ALSO FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT/TRIAD, SLOWLY
LIFTING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE A FEW STRAY
ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST, BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
SHOWERS WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH LOWER BUT
STILL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE EAST AND MID
70S IN THE TRIAD UNDER MORE LOW STRATUS.
AS FOR SHOWER CHANCES, THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT
GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT, WHERE CAMS
SHOW THE BEST AGREEMENT. THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE LESS CLEAR ON HOW
MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY SURVIVES EAST OF US-1, WHERE THE 48-HR PMM QPF
FROM THE HREF SHOWS ONLY A TRACE EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. A TENTH OF
MAYBE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PIEDMONT - SO OVERALL LIGHT AMOUNTS AND NOT A DROUGHT BUSTER.
INSTABILITY IS WEAK AT 250 TO 400 J/KG ACROSS THE WEST SO THINK
THUNDER WILL BE LIMITED.
SHOWER CHANCES COULD CONTINUE SUN NIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY/ISOLATED AT BEST WITH A LACK OF FORCING. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
ARE AGAIN FAVORED WITH LOWS OVER 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW
TO PERHAPS MID 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
* THREAT OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
* FAIR AND COOLER ON TUESDAY.
* HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS ON
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM AL/GA INTO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC AS IT DISSIPATES ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS THE SAME DISTURBANCE THAT TRIGGERED THE HEAVY RAIN IN
SOUTH TX ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND PW VALUES
EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES, EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE
COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO DON'T EXPECT A WASHOUT.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY AROUND
OR LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE AND SOME
FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 NEAR FAYETTEVILLE. CLOUDS AND A
SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL RESULT IN A MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER A GENERAL LULL MONDAY MORNING, THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH
MORE ACTIVE DURING THE DAY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED, SLOW MOVING
COMBINED NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES FROM THE OH AND
TN VALLEY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY
EVENING AND OFF THE COAST BY AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THERE IS A
FAIR AMOUNT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SOME CRITICAL DETAILS THAT WILL
INFLUENCE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. FIRST, THE
MORNING MAY START OFF WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW STRATUS WHICH COULD
DELAY AND INHIBIT HEATING THAT WOULD REDUCE DESTABLIZATION. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION WHICH COULD ALSO
LIMIT DESTABLIZATION. THE MID LEVEL FORCING PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IS NOT AS VIGOROUS AS IT MAY HAVE APPEARED A FEW DAYS AGO
AND IT APPEARS TO LAG THE COLD FRONT A BIT WITH THE ARRIVAL TIME
PERHAPS A BIT TARDY TO CAPTURE THE BEST DIURNAL TIMING. WITH THIS IN
MIND HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE STRONG
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 35 TO 40
KTS AND CAPE VALUES LIKELY AROUND 500 J/KG, IF CONVECTION CAN FORM,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A
PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. SPC
CONTINUES TO INCLUDE THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK BUT GIVEN TRENDS IT
APPEARS THIS EVENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS AS OPPOSED TO A LARGE OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST AND SHOULD FADE LATE IN THE
NIGHT. QPF VALUES FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. THE COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
A COLD AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
THAT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
EXTEND INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AND LINGER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AND PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S NEAR ROANOKE RAPIDS
TO THE UPPER 60S IN RALEIGH AND GREENSBORO TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR
FAYETTEVILLE. A CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S.
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND STRENGTHENS ON
THURSDAY WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE
LOCATED WELL TO OUR WEST. A RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
STRENGTHENS ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY RESULTED IN A PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S IN MANY LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A LIMITED CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK IN THE WARM SECTOR BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED. -BLAES
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1256 AM SATURDAY...
THERE IS REASONABLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-
HOUR TAF PERIOD. A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBERS, NAMELY THE NAM AND RAP,
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW STRATUS NEAR FAY EARLY SAT
MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS REMAINS LOW GIVEN A LACK OF MODEL
AGREEMENT, BUT THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION
OF SUB-VFR AT FAY FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SW BETWEEN 18-24 KT, HIGHEST AT
GSO/INT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STIRRED SAT NIGHT, WITH A FEW
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KT.
OUTLOOK: AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN AND MON
MORNINGS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUN, MOST FAVORED AT
GSO/INT. A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED
MON AFTN/EVE WITH A COLD FRONT. PERIODIC DROPS TO IFR OR LOWER CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS. VFR SHOULD RETURN TUE.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY...
* INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WHILE THERE WILL BE AN INTRUSION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY
TODAY, FUELS REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. RH
VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 30-35 PERCENT, BUT FUEL CONCERNS,
ALONG WITH ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTINESS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH, SUPPORTS THE
NEED FOR ANOTHER INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. THIS FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND WESTERN SANDHILLS.
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE UPWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, LIKELY LESSENING THE FIRE
DANGER THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...KREN
SHORT TERM...KREN
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...KREN
FIRE WEATHER...KREN/LEINS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page