879
FXUS62 KRAH 290743
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
343 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND MODIFY DURING THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS IS ALL TIED TO A SHORTWAVE AT MID-LEVELS OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL WEAK AS IT RUNS INTO THE
RIDGE OVER OUR REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED NEAR BERMUDA TODAY AND TONIGHT,
WITH CONTINUED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS, AT TIMES GUSTING
TO 20-25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
FRI IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, SOME 12-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND WESTERN SANDHILLS
WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPS, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, DRY FUELS, AND
RH LEVELS IN THE LOWER 30S.
CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT
WITH THE WEAK WAVE AT MID-LEVELS AND INCREASING PW'S OVER 180-
PERCENT OF NORMAL. AT LOW-LEVELS, INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL FAVOR ALSO LOW STRATUS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT BY EARLY SUN. LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN FULL SWING ON SUN. A MORE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY IS FORECAST IN THE GUIDANCE
TO TRACK UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE OUR WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY
INCREASED FIRE DANGER RISK.
CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME
LOW STRATUS IS ALSO FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT/TRIAD, SLOWLY
LIFTING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE A FEW STRAY
ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST, BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
SHOWERS WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH LOWER BUT
STILL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE EAST AND MID
70S IN THE TRIAD UNDER MORE LOW STRATUS.
AS FOR SHOWER CHANCES, THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT
GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT, WHERE CAMS
SHOW THE BEST AGREEMENT. THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE LESS CLEAR ON HOW
MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY SURVIVES EAST OF US-1, WHERE THE 48-HR PMM QPF
FROM THE HREF SHOWS ONLY A TRACE EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. A TENTH OF
MAYBE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PIEDMONT - SO OVERALL LIGHT AMOUNTS AND NOT A DROUGHT BUSTER.
INSTABILITY IS WEAK AT 250 TO 400 J/KG ACROSS THE WEST SO THINK
THUNDER WILL BE LIMITED.
SHOWER CHANCES COULD CONTINUE SUN NIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY/ISOLATED AT BEST WITH A LACK OF FORCING. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
ARE AGAIN FAVORED WITH LOWS OVER 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW
TO PERHAPS MID 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...
* THERE IS A SLIGHT/LEVEL 2 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC
MONDAY
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: A MID/UPPER TROUGH, COMPRISED OF AT LEAST A
FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES, WILL PROGRESS FROM THE MS VALLEY
INTO THE EASTERN US MONDAY NIGHT. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.
DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WAA AND STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, SOME MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE RAIN-COOLED AIR AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDINESS COULD DETER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE AREA, POTENTIALLY
LIMITING THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION
LATER IN THE DAY. THIS IS ONE KEY ASPECT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO
RESOLVE, AND THUS RESULT IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
HOWEVER, IF AMPLE BL HEATING OCCURS, BL DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S SHOULD ALLOW FOR WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP,
LIKELY MAXIMIZED ALONG AND EAST OF US 1. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IN PLACE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DETAILS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES, BUT
AT THIS TIME, ALL HAZARDS(WIND, HAIL, ISOLATED TORNADOES) ARE
POSSIBLE.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM LOWER/MID 70S NW TO UPPER/LOWER 80S
EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER/MID 50S SE.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING COLD FRONT,
TRANSITORY SFC HIGH WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF STINT OF COOLER TEMPS
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP OVER THE SE US. WHILE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, THE BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA, OWING
TO A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1256 AM SATURDAY...
THERE IS REASONABLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-
HOUR TAF PERIOD. A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBERS, NAMELY THE NAM AND RAP,
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW STRATUS NEAR FAY EARLY SAT
MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS REMAINS LOW GIVEN A LACK OF MODEL
AGREEMENT, BUT THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION
OF SUB-VFR AT FAY FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SW BETWEEN 18-24 KT, HIGHEST AT
GSO/INT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STIRRED SAT NIGHT, WITH A FEW
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KT.
OUTLOOK: AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN AND MON
MORNINGS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUN, MOST FAVORED AT
GSO/INT. A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED
MON AFTN/EVE WITH A COLD FRONT. PERIODIC DROPS TO IFR OR LOWER CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS. VFR SHOULD RETURN TUE.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY...
* INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WHILE THERE WILL BE AN INTRUSION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY
TODAY, FUELS REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. RH
VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 30-35 PERCENT, BUT FUEL CONCERNS,
ALONG WITH ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTINESS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH, SUPPORTS THE
NEED FOR ANOTHER INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. THIS FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND WESTERN SANDHILLS.
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE UPWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, LIKELY LESSENING THE FIRE
DANGER THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...KREN
SHORT TERM...KREN
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KREN
FIRE WEATHER...KREN/LEINS
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