987
FXUS62 KRAH 291855
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND MODIFY DURING THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
QUIET WEATHER, ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AT TIMES, WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED WELL TO
OUR EAST, WILL REMAIN EXTENDED ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SUBSEQUENT
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
AT TIMES. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE, LOOK FOR SOME
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING, ESP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
A PLUME OF FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR
EAST AND THE DEEPENING THROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY CROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DESPITE SOME WEAK VERY SHORT
WAVELENGTH RIPPLES IN THE UPPER S/W FLOW, OVERALL ASCENT IS FAIRLY
LIMITED. NONETHELESS, MANY OF THE CAMS SUGGEST A COUPLE VERY ISOLD
SHOWERS COULD MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC MAINLY LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LIMITED COVERAGE, MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY ON SUNDAY. VIGOROUS SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE SYSTEMS, SO LOOK FOR TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES. HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
ON MONDAY MORNING, LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
DOWN INTO TEXAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE FOLLOWING
24 HOURS AND BRING WIDESPREDIMINISHAD RAIN TO THE AREA, BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY. THE FIRST
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL TO GO THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON'S FORECAST, THE
NAMDNG, IS A BIT NOISY, BUT DOESN'T BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE VERY END OF ITS RUN,
AROUND SUNSET MONDAY. BUMPED UP THE TEMPORAL RESOLUTION TO EVERY 3
HOURS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, AND THINK THAT THE LATE AFTERNOON
ARRIVAL IN MOST LOCATIONS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAST. IF THIS IS THE
CASE, AND SHOWERS/STORMS DO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET, THIS MAY
REDUCE THE OVERALL RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION, MOST
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE THE PRIMARY LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF, AND
THESE SHOWERS/CLOUDS COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT
FOR ANY LATER STORMS TO TAP INTO. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, AND AS THE LOW RACES NORTHEAST, THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS WILL EXTEND
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EACH DAY THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND
EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY, BUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETREAT TO
THE NORTHWEST EACH NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, BUT WITH LITTLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER, A
CONSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES - MOST LOCATIONS WILL
HAVE HIGHS IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY: MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER CENTRAL
NC AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A S/W TROUGH TO OUR WEST
MOVES EAST. MVFR STATUS IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK AT
INT/GSO, BUT WHILE BKN-OVC FARTHER EAST, CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT
RDU, RWI AND FAY. OTHERWISE, GUSTY SFC WINDS ATTM SHOULD WEAKEN
AFTER SUNSET, THEN INCREASE AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH S/SW
WINDS OF 10-18KT.
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY: ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDA, MOST
FAVORED AT GSO/INT. A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED MON AFTN/EVE WITH A COLD FRONT. PERIODIC DROPS TO IFR OR
LOWER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. VFR SHOULD RETURN
TUE.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...NP
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...NP
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