203
FXUS62 KRAH 300643
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
242 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND MODIFY DURING THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 242 AM SUNDAY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT AT MID-LEVELS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES IN THE FLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONE SUCH
IMPULSE OF ENERGY IS CURRENTLY OVER US NOW AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND
EAST BY MID-MORNING. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT INTO EARLY MORNING BUT MOST OF US WILL REMAIN
DRY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH PRESENTLY AND FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THESE
SHORTWAVES ARE FORCED BY A LARGER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY
TRACKING UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SURFACE, ANOMALOUSLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO END
OUR WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. WHILE CONSIDERABLE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL BE AROUND TODAY,
SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
AREA.
THE 00Z HREF AND INDIVIDUAL CAMS CAME IN MUCH DRIER FOR SHOWER
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, COMPARED TO THEIR 12Z
COUNTERPARTS. AS ENERGY FROM OUR SOUTHWEST TRACKS NE IN A BROAD WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN, THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCES APPEAR ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS, WHERE
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. FURTHER EAST FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST
OF US-1, STABILITY AND LACK OF FORCING SUPPORTS ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALSO DECREASED WITH A TRACE OR FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT.
VERY WARM LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEVELOPING
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS BUILDS NORTHWARD IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-
LEVEL FLOW. OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, WE SHOULD MAINLY BE
DRY, WITH LOWS PERHAPS SOME 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID
60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
A PLUME OF FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR
EAST AND THE DEEPENING THROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY CROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DESPITE SOME WEAK VERY SHORT
WAVELENGTH RIPPLES IN THE UPPER S/W FLOW, OVERALL ASCENT IS FAIRLY
LIMITED. NONETHELESS, MANY OF THE CAMS SUGGEST A COUPLE VERY ISOLD
SHOWERS COULD MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC MAINLY LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LIMITED COVERAGE, MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY ON SUNDAY. VIGOROUS SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE SYSTEMS, SO LOOK FOR TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES. HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
ON MONDAY MORNING, LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
DOWN INTO TEXAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE FOLLOWING
24 HOURS AND BRING SHOWERY RAIN TO THE AREA, BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY. THE FIRST
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL TO GO THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON'S FORECAST, THE
NAMDNG, IS A BIT NOISY, BUT DOESN'T BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE VERY END OF ITS RUN,
AROUND SUNSET MONDAY. BUMPED UP THE TEMPORAL RESOLUTION TO EVERY 3
HOURS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, AND THINK THAT THE LATE AFTERNOON
ARRIVAL IN MOST LOCATIONS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAST. IF THIS IS THE
CASE, AND SHOWERS/STORMS DO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET, THIS MAY
REDUCE THE OVERALL RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION, MOST
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE THE PRIMARY LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF, AND
THESE SHOWERS/CLOUDS COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT
FOR ANY LATER STORMS TO TAP INTO. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, AND AS THE LOW RACES NORTHEAST, THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS WILL EXTEND
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EACH DAY THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND
EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY, BUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETREAT TO
THE NORTHWEST EACH NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, BUT WITH LITTLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER, A
CONSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES - MOST LOCATIONS WILL
HAVE HIGHS IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 118 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD. CONTINUED
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOIST FLOW WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS
ACROSS THE TRIAD (GSO/INT) TERMINALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 14 AND 20Z,
THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD LAST LONGER AT INT CLOSER TO THE UPSLOPE
MOIST AIRMASS. ANOTHER DAY OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING
BETWEEN 18 AND 22 KT, WITH GUSTS LARGELY DIMINISHING BY SUNSET. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS SUN LATE AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANYTHING REACHING ANY AIRPORT IS VERY
LOW GIVEN LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS AT
GSO/INT BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z. AREAS OF IFR OR LOWER STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD, REACHING THE TRIAD TERMINALS
BEFORE 06Z AND THE OTHER TERMINALS EARLY MON.
OUTLOOK: AREAS OF LIFR/IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED MON MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FAVORED MON LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PERIODIC DROPS TO IFR OR LOWER ARE
EXPECTED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. VFR GENERALLY IS EXPECTED TUE ONWARD,
THOUGH MORNING LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE WED AND THU.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...KREN
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...KREN
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