029
FXUS62 KRAH 300732
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND MODIFY DURING THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 242 AM SUNDAY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT AT MID-LEVELS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES IN THE FLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONE SUCH
IMPULSE OF ENERGY IS CURRENTLY OVER US NOW AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND
EAST BY MID-MORNING. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT INTO EARLY MORNING BUT MOST OF US WILL REMAIN
DRY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH PRESENTLY AND FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THESE
SHORTWAVES ARE FORCED BY A LARGER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY
TRACKING UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SURFACE, ANOMALOUSLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO END
OUR WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. WHILE CONSIDERABLE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL BE AROUND TODAY,
SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
AREA.
THE 00Z HREF AND INDIVIDUAL CAMS CAME IN MUCH DRIER FOR SHOWER
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, COMPARED TO THEIR 12Z
COUNTERPARTS. AS ENERGY FROM OUR SOUTHWEST TRACKS NE IN A BROAD WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN, THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCES APPEAR ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS, WHERE
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. FURTHER EAST FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST
OF US-1, STABILITY AND LACK OF FORCING SUPPORTS ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALSO DECREASED WITH A TRACE OR FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT.
VERY WARM LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEVELOPING
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS BUILDS NORTHWARD IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-
LEVEL FLOW. OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, WE SHOULD MAINLY BE
DRY, WITH LOWS PERHAPS SOME 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID
60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...
* THERE IS A ENHANCED/LEVEL 3 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
NC MONDAY
A MID/UPPER TROUGH, COMPRISED OF AT LEAST A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES, WILL PROGRESS FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN US
MONDAY NIGHT. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. A PRE-FRONTAL BAND(S) OF
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
PRECEDE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, WITH A GENERAL TIMELINE OF
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ONE, POSSIBLY TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. A LEAD, PRE-FRONTAL BAND THAT WILL MOVE EAST THE AREA BETWEEN
18 TO 02Z, POTENTIALLY FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY LINE/BAND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COLD FRONT AND VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN 02 TO
09Z. COMPLICATING THE CONVECTIVE PICTURE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
EARLIER/ONGOING CONVECTION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE BANDS THAT COULD LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.
THIS IS ONE KEY ASPECT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO RESOLVE. FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE SEVERE THREAT IS THE POSSIBLE INFLUENCE/PRESENCE OF
A LINGERING EML THAT COULD INITIALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND
DESTABLIZATION UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER, IF AMPLE BL HEATING OCCURS, BL DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S COULD ALLOW FOR 1000-1750 ML CAPE TO DEVELOP, LIKELY
MAXIMIZED ALONG AND EAST OF US 1. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IN PLACE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME, ALL
HAZARDS(WIND, HAIL, ISOLATED TORNADOES) ARE POSSIBLE, WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT.
BREEZY WITH HIGHS MONDAY RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 70S NW TO
UPPER/LOWER 80S EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE FROPA. LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...
* THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON ARRIVE LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK
FOLLOWING A BRIEF STINT OF COOLER TEMPS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, THE
EMERGENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH AND A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SE
US WILL BRING THE WARMEST/HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON TO
CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE
NORTH TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH, WHICH IS 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT, THE LATEST EFI SHOWS A SOT VALUE OF
+2 ACROSS NC. THUS, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISE IF MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS
WARMER TOWARDS RECORD LEVELS. THIS ANOMALOUS WARMTH WILL BE CERTAIN
TO RESULT IN A SPIKE/PEAK IN POLLEN LEVELS AS WELL.
WHILE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MEANDERING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/JUST OFF THE
SE COAST SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE
SIGNALING THAT A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT COULD SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY-SATURDAY, WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAIN. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGING, WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF THE COLD FRONT ENDS UP STALLING NORTH OF OUR AREA.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 118 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD. CONTINUED
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOIST FLOW WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS
ACROSS THE TRIAD (GSO/INT) TERMINALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 14 AND 20Z,
THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD LAST LONGER AT INT CLOSER TO THE UPSLOPE
MOIST AIRMASS. ANOTHER DAY OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING
BETWEEN 18 AND 22 KT, WITH GUSTS LARGELY DIMINISHING BY SUNSET. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS SUN LATE AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANYTHING REACHING ANY AIRPORT IS VERY
LOW GIVEN LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS AT
GSO/INT BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z. AREAS OF IFR OR LOWER STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD, REACHING THE TRIAD TERMINALS
BEFORE 06Z AND THE OTHER TERMINALS EARLY MON.
OUTLOOK: AREAS OF LIFR/IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED MON MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FAVORED MON LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PERIODIC DROPS TO IFR OR LOWER ARE
EXPECTED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. VFR GENERALLY IS EXPECTED TUE ONWARD,
THOUGH MORNING LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE WED AND THU.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...KREN
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KREN
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