678
FXUS62 KRAH 301838
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
238 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND MODIFY DURING THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 238 PM SUNDAY...
AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIFTING NWD ACROSS SE NC ATTM
IN RESPONSE TO A VERY WEAK S/W TROUGH MOVING NE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST ALONG WITH WAA-DRIVEN LOW-LEVEL LIFT. CAMS SHOW THESE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO LIFT NC ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, BUT WITH VERY LITTLE QPF OR IMPACT.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY, ALL IN RESPONSE TO
ONGOING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH CONTINUING WARM AND MOIST AIR
ADVECTION. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES F ABOVE
NORMAL... LOW-MID 60S. FINALLY, IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT NEARLY ALL
MODELS SHOW THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST OVER
WESTERN AND UPSTATE SC DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL NC THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD BE DUE TO POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING S/W TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT
MOVES EAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...
* THERE IS A ENHANCED/LEVEL 3 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
NC MONDAY
A MID/UPPER TROUGH, COMPRISED OF AT LEAST A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES, WILL PROGRESS FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN US
MONDAY NIGHT. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. A PRE-FRONTAL BAND(S) OF
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
PRECEDE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, WITH A GENERAL TIMELINE OF
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ONE, POSSIBLY TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. A LEAD, PRE-FRONTAL BAND THAT WILL MOVE EAST THE AREA BETWEEN
18 TO 02Z, POTENTIALLY FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY LINE/BAND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COLD FRONT AND VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN 02 TO
09Z. COMPLICATING THE CONVECTIVE PICTURE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
EARLIER/ONGOING CONVECTION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE BANDS THAT COULD LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.
THIS IS ONE KEY ASPECT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO RESOLVE. FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE SEVERE THREAT IS THE POSSIBLE INFLUENCE/PRESENCE OF
A LINGERING EML THAT COULD INITIALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND
DESTABLIZATION UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER, IF AMPLE BL HEATING OCCURS, BL DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S COULD ALLOW FOR 1000-1750 ML CAPE TO DEVELOP, LIKELY
MAXIMIZED ALONG AND EAST OF US 1. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IN PLACE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME, ALL
HAZARDS(WIND, HAIL, ISOLATED TORNADOES) ARE POSSIBLE, WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT.
BREEZY WITH HIGHS MONDAY RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 70S NW TO
UPPER/LOWER 80S EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE FROPA. LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...
* THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON ARRIVE LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK
FOLLOWING A BRIEF STINT OF COOLER TEMPS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, THE
EMERGENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH AND A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SE
US WILL BRING THE WARMEST/HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON TO
CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE
NORTH TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH, WHICH IS 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT, THE LATEST EFI SHOWS A SOT VALUE OF
+2 ACROSS NC. THUS, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISE IF MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS
WARMER TOWARDS RECORD LEVELS. THIS ANOMALOUS WARMTH WILL BE CERTAIN
TO RESULT IN A SPIKE/PEAK IN POLLEN LEVELS AS WELL.
WHILE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MEANDERING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/JUST OFF THE
SE COAST SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE
SIGNALING THAT A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT COULD SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY-SATURDAY, WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAIN. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGING, WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF THE COLD FRONT ENDS UP STALLING NORTH OF OUR AREA.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 151 PM SUNDAY...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY: VFR CONDITIONS ATTM ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH MID-
LEVEL CIGS BEING REPORTED. FLT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR TO LIFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFT
06Z AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH CONTINUES.
CONDITIONS WILL ONLY IMPROVE TO LOW-MVFR AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE, S TO SW WINDS AROUND 10KT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY.
AFTER 18Z MONDAY: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FAVORED MON LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PERIODIC
DROPS TO IFR OR LOWER ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. VFR GENERALLY
IS EXPECTED TUE ONWARD, THOUGH MORNING LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE WED
AND THU.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NP
NEAR TERM...NP
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...NP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab NC Page Main Text Page