074
FXUS62 KRAH 310040
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
840 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND MODIFY QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY. NEAR RECORD HEAT IS
EXPECTED LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...
A BAND OF SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING. UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS ALONG WITH
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. LIMITED POPS GENERALLY TO SLIGHT CHANCE
(< 24%) FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A SUBTLE UPTICK
TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION AND LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS OF 5-
10MPH WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT CONTINUING TO DRAW IN WARM
MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...
* THERE IS A ENHANCED/LEVEL 3 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
NC MONDAY
ON MONDAY MORNING, LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH OHIO INTO ALABAMA
AND TRAILING WEST INTO TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LEVEL 3/ENHANCED
RISK ACROSS THE AREA, THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
THE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THERE ARE AT LEAST THREE PARTS
OF THE FORECAST WHERE UNCERTAINTY WILL HAVE A MAJOR INFLUENCE IN THE
FORECAST:
1) THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAK LOW TRACKING ALONG THE COASTLINE PRODUCING
SOME MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES. LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM
THESE SHOWERS COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY IN THE EAST.
2) HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS IN THE HREF DO NOT SHOW A SOLID LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT APPEAR TO BE DISCRETE CELLS. THE MODE WILL AFFECT
THE TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT DEVELOPS.
3) A SECONDARY LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DEPICTED ON SOME HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS AFTER THE INITIAL LINE MOVES THROUGH, AFFECTING
PRIMARILY THE TRIAD IN THE LATE EVENING.
THE BROAD THINKING REMAINS THAT THE COLD FRONT AND AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH THE TRIAD BETWEEN 2-6PM, THE TRIANGLE
BETWEEN 4-8PM, AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 6-9PM. ALL HAZARDS
(WIND, HAIL, TORNADOES) REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. WITH THE MID-DAY
UPDATE, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS REDUCED THE CHANCE OF SEVERE
HAIL ACROSS THE REGION, BUT INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WIND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. FLASH FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD
THREAT WITH THE STORMS MOVING THROUGH RELATIVELY QUICKLY, WITH HALF
AN INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FORECAST. THE BULK OF
THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY EARLY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE TRIAD WITH THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
- WHILE THE TRIAD WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S, TEMPERATURES
MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 307 PM SUNDAY...
UPPER PATTERN: IN WAKE OF MONDAY'S EXITING UPPER TROUGH, ANOMALOUS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY AND ANCHOR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN, AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OOZES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES: AFTER A DRY, RELATIVELY COOLER POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY
(HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S), A CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFFSHORE WILL PROMOTE SEVERAL DAYS OF PERSISTENT SLY FLOW STARTING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP RAMP UP BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT RAMPING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (AND PERHAPS ON SATURDAY AS WELL ACROSS THE
SOUTH). DEW POINTS DURING THIS TIME WILL RISE INTO THE 60S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL PROMOTE A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE FEEL.
PRECIPITATION: DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS FORCING AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAINS TO OUR WEST. FROM LATER
WEDNESDAY ONWARD, WAA-DRIVEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION APPEARS POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
INCREASINGLY WET CONDITIONS THEN APPEAR POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEKEND
INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS A SFC BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDES INTO
THE SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 840 PM SUNDAY...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY: VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR THEN IFR
CIGS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CIGS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH 15Z-18Z, BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING OUT TO VFR CIGS
BY 18Z-20Z.
AFTER 18Z MONDAY: SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FAVORED LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, SPREADING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. PERIODIC DROPS TO IFR OR LOWER ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
VFR GENERALLY IS EXPECTED TUE ONWARD.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...LUCHETTI
AVIATION...BADGETT/NP
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