469
FXUS62 KRAH 310639
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
239 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR AND EAST OF
BERMUDA, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...
A BAND OF SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING. UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS ALONG WITH
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. LIMITED POPS GENERALLY TO SLIGHT CHANCE
(< 24%) FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A SUBTLE UPTICK
TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION AND LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS OF 5-
10MPH WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT CONTINUING TO DRAW IN WARM
MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...
* THERE IS A ENHANCED/LEVEL 3 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
NC MONDAY
ON MONDAY MORNING, LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH OHIO INTO ALABAMA
AND TRAILING WEST INTO TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LEVEL 3/ENHANCED
RISK ACROSS THE AREA, THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
THE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL EVOLVE. THERE ARE AT LEAST THREE PARTS
OF THE FORECAST WHERE UNCERTAINTY WILL HAVE A MAJOR INFLUENCE IN THE
FORECAST:
1) THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAK LOW TRACKING ALONG THE COASTLINE PRODUCING
SOME MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES. LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM
THESE SHOWERS COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY IN THE EAST.
2) HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS IN THE HREF DO NOT SHOW A SOLID LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT APPEAR TO BE DISCRETE CELLS. THE MODE WILL AFFECT
THE TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT DEVELOPS.
3) A SECONDARY LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DEPICTED ON SOME HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS AFTER THE INITIAL LINE MOVES THROUGH, AFFECTING
PRIMARILY THE TRIAD IN THE LATE EVENING.
THE BROAD THINKING REMAINS THAT THE COLD FRONT AND AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH THE TRIAD BETWEEN 2-6PM, THE TRIANGLE
BETWEEN 4-8PM, AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 6-9PM. ALL HAZARDS
(WIND, HAIL, TORNADOES) REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. WITH THE MID-DAY
UPDATE, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS REDUCED THE CHANCE OF SEVERE
HAIL ACROSS THE REGION, BUT INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WIND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. FLASH FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD
THREAT WITH THE STORMS MOVING THROUGH RELATIVELY QUICKLY, WITH HALF
AN INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FORECAST. THE BULK OF
THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY EARLY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE TRIAD WITH THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
- WHILE THE TRIAD WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S, TEMPERATURES
MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 307 PM SUNDAY...
UPPER PATTERN: IN WAKE OF MONDAY'S EXITING UPPER TROUGH, ANOMALOUS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY AND ANCHOR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN, AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OOZES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES: AFTER A DRY, RELATIVELY COOLER POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY
(HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S), A CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFFSHORE WILL PROMOTE SEVERAL DAYS OF PERSISTENT SLY FLOW STARTING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP RAMP UP BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT RAMPING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (AND PERHAPS ON SATURDAY AS WELL ACROSS THE
SOUTH). DEW POINTS DURING THIS TIME WILL RISE INTO THE 60S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL PROMOTE A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE FEEL.
PRECIPITATION: DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS FORCING AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAINS TO OUR WEST. FROM LATER
WEDNESDAY ONWARD, WAA-DRIVEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION APPEARS POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
INCREASINGLY WET CONDITIONS THEN APPEAR POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEKEND
INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS A SFC BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDES INTO
THE SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...
IFR TO LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS CNTL NC
EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR, AND DISPERSE TO VFR
ESPECIALLY EAST OF INT/GSO, WITH DAYTIME HEATING BY LATE MORNING-
EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A CLUSTER OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY FROM GA TO THE WRN CAROLINAS
AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS CNTL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING: FIRST AT INT/GSO BETWEEN 20-23Z AND LAST AT RWI
BETWEEN 23-02Z. AREAS OF BOTH MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WILL THEN
LINGER UNTIL A COLD FRONT AND FOLLOWING MUCH DRIER AIR OVERSPREAD
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL SSWLY SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MODESTLY STRENGTHEN AND BECOME AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KTS, AS CEILINGS LIFT AND MIXING INCREASE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, FOLLOWED BY A RISK OF SIMILARLY, MODESTLY STRONG
NWLY WINDS AND GUSTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: AFTER BRIEF INFLUENCE FROM DRY, HIGH PRESSURE TUE-TU NIGHT,
RETURN FLOW, AND AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, WILL
LIKEWISE INCREASE THE RISK OF IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS AT INT/GSO WED
MORNING AND THROUGHOUT CNTL NC THU MORNING.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...LUCHETTI
AVIATION...MWS
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