410
FXUS62 KRAH 311834
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY, STARTING A GRADUAL WARMUP THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...
AS OF 2PM, A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS INTO TEXAS. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA
DOWN INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNINGS IN EFFECT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST, IT
IS LIKELY THAT MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL
EVENTUALLY BE PUT INTO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AS WELL. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CONTINUED ITS LEVEL 3/ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, PRIMARILY
DRIVEN BY AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER, ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL DO REMAIN POSSIBLE THREATS AS WELL. THE
MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS 5-7PM IN THE TRIAD, 7-9PM IN
THE TRIANGLE, AND 8-10PM ALONG I-95. THE LATEST MODEL TREND SHOWN BY
THE NBM ALONG WITH THE HRRR-TL SHOWS A SECONDARY LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE PRIMARY LINE
THAT WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET AND AFFECT MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF US-
64. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SECONDARY LINE,
THESE STORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE. NEARLY ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST BY 2AM, WITH CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL LIKELY DECREASE AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN AS THE WIND
VEERS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD
TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...
BEHIND TODAY'S FRONT, COOL AND DRY (PWS AOA 0.5") HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE BY TO OUR N WHILE NOSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC TUE/TUE
NIGHT, AS BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
APART FROM SOME EARLY-MORNING LINGERING CLOUDS IN OUR SE AND A FEW
HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS THE S IN THE AFTERNOON, SUNSHINE TUE SHOULD
BE ABUNDANT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF
TUE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT TO OUR S WILL HAVE STARTED
MOVING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND DEEPENING MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT 285-300K, PARTICULARLY
OVER THE SW AND W CWA AFTER 06Z. AS SUCH, SW AND W COUNTIES WILL
TREND TOWARD INCREASING STRATOCU LATE. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THICKNESSES ADJUSTED FOR WEAK/WANING CAA AND HIGH INSOLATION SUPPORT
HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL, MOSTLY MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS SHOULD ALSO
BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL, IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. -GIH
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 420 AM MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LARGELY BE DOMINATED BY A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
THAT REMAINS ANCHORED EAST OF FL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY, THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND A WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH THAT
DROPS SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. THUS PW
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 150-200% OF NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL ZONE INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST WILL TRY TO REACH OUR AREA BEFORE STALLING OUT AS IT RUNS
INTO THE HIGH TO OUR SE. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW CLOSE IT WILL GET,
WITH THE ECMWF TRYING TO BRING IT TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON SATURDAY
AS A BACKDOOR FRONT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT WELL DISPLACED FROM US.
AT THIS TIME, THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EACH DAY LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED
WAA-DRIVEN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL NC. BUT COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO OUR SE, AND BOTH GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO MAYBE A TENTH OF AN INCH AT MOST. AT THE
VERY LEAST, THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND A
CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING. BETTER RAIN CHANCES COME ON
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT AND BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGHING TO APPROACH
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THE FRONT
AS THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY AROUND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM DURING THE PERIOD, AS HIGHS INCREASE
FROM LOWER-70S NORTH TO UPPER-70S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY TO 80S ON
THURSDAY AND UPPER-80S TO LOWER-90S ON FRIDAY. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE
IN THE 60S. THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY IS CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS FOR
APRIL 4 AT GSO, RDU AND FAY. IT WILL NOT BE A "DRY HEAT" EITHER AS
DEW POINTS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 60S. THE WEEKEND'S TEMPERATURES
ARE LOWER CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT IS
ABLE TO GET HERE, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SLOWS IT DOWN AND DOESN'T
BRING IT THROUGH UNTIL LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. SO FORECAST HIGHS
ARE STILL IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS. ONE BENEFIT OF THESE HIGHER DEW
POINTS IS THEY SHOULD KEEP RH'S WELL ABOVE LEVELS THAT WOULD
AGGRAVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...
CEILINGS ARE WAVERING ON EITHER SIDE OF 3000 FT TO START THE TAF
PERIOD, AND A COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS. EACH SITE IS LIKELY TO HAVE ABOUT A 6 HOUR
WINDOW WHEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW OF HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BRING WINDS UP TO 50 KT.
THIS THREAT WILL RANGE AS EARLY AS 21Z AT INT/GSO TO AS LATE AS 02Z
AT RWI. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST, THEN ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, WINDS WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE WEST, THEN CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE LIKELY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK: A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD, AND THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
POSSIBILITIES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS AT INT/GSO.
HOWEVER, THE OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WILL LIKELY NOT
HAVE RESTRICTIONS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 3:
KRDU: 91/1967
KFAY: 90/1934
APRIL 4:
KGSO: 86/1934
KRDU: 88/1934
KFAY: 93/1910
APRIL 5:
KGSO: 87/1942
KRDU: 90/1942
KFAY: 91/1942
APRIL 6:
KFAY: 91/2010
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 31:
KGSO: 63/2022
KRDU: 65/2022
KFAY: 66/2022
APRIL 3:
KGSO: 64/1946
KRDU: 62/2000
KFAY: 65/1977
APRIL 4:
KGSO: 62/1999
KRDU: 63/2017
KFAY: 63/2017
APRIL 5:
KGSO: 60/2023
KRDU: 64/1910
KFAY: 64/2008
APRIL 6:
KGSO: 65/2023
KFAY: 69/2023
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DANCO
AVIATION...GREEN
CLIMATE...NWS
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